Iran: Pieces in Place for Escalation

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 24 Jan 2007, 17:35

Damn, well that post cheered me up no end... Can't we just delete it and pretend that none of this stuff in the Gulf is happening?

I've had enough, and I want my ignorance back!

But seriously, if this scenario plays out then the whole world is probably going to go down the pan. And is there anything we can do about it other than worry?

I'm going down the pub, me.

XENG · Post by **XENG** » 24 Jan 2007, 18:11

Looks like the Doomsday Clock might need to be reset again.

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 24 Jan 2007, 18:13

XENG wrote:Looks like the Doomsday Clock might need to be reset again.

Does it have a SNOOZE button?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 24 Jan 2007, 19:03

Adam1 wrote:What do you all think?

This is overlapping almost 100% with my own current thinking. I might read something tomorrow which could make me change my thinking, but since about a year, this is my analysis.

In addition, the US is cornered and spent. The rich elites could make the best gains from simply dropping the US. That way the global financial system could be kept together for another 15-20 years at the tunes of cheap oil - after a bankruptcy reorganization of course.

Edit: I read some quote from an Iranian guy who said something like:

unknown wrote:We could take Basra anytime we want using just ten Mullahs and a soundtruck

Iran could end up controlling the southern Iraqi oil fields if the US is forced out, and that outcome would be so terrible that the US would do just about anything to prevent it. All while the rich elites will just bug out of the US if things get to crappy. The political apparatus in the US will strive on though.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 24 Jan 2007, 19:17

"Unmentioned till now is Hugo Chavez, and Venezuela. Russia has supplied Hugo with 55 Mig29SMTs, Russia?s latest air superiority fighter."

Actually, they've just started to take delivery of Sukhoi 30s - (Flankers). I have some pics here - if I knew how to post them.

Interestingly, the Mexican Navy have also ordered these same planes, to protect their own offshore rigs. Exactly who from, I wonder?

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 24 Jan 2007, 20:06

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:"Unmentioned till now is Hugo Chavez, and Venezuela. Russia has supplied Hugo with 55 Mig29SMTs, Russia?s latest air superiority fighter."

Actually, they've just started to take delivery of Sukhoi 30s - (Flankers). I have some pics here - if I knew how to post them.

Interestingly, the Mexican Navy have also ordered these same planes, to protect their own offshore rigs. Exactly who from, I wonder?

But then it maybe token resistance - the US has 4,500 attack aircraft and at least 12 carrier groups!!

I'm sticking to my guns (like a belligerant despot dictator) , the US is bluffing on Iran !!!

They will still in Iraq for years though (just to keep the Iranians out)....

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 25 Jan 2007, 00:48

You asked what we think and for the first time ever on the Internet, I say "F--k!"

Its maybe not a bad thing that the FUC* word is spell-checked out.

mocara · Post by **mocara** » 25 Jan 2007, 01:47

Totally_Baffled wrote: But then it maybe token resistance - the US has 4,500 attack aircraft and at least 12 carrier groups!!

I'm sticking to my guns (like a belligerant despot dictator) , the US is bluffing on Iran !!!
.

Iran has a tiny navy. I wonder though what they can do with 6 subs, 3 of which are kilos. Not a hell of a lot I would reckon.

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 25 Jan 2007, 06:24

that Patriot missiles are currently being shipped to the Middle East to "protect friendly Arab nations

The Gulf war demonstrated them as being worse than usless!

It also is apparent that Israel will take the initiative to attack Iran if America fails to do so and there is some evidence that they have already been thwarted by the US in actually carrying out a nuclear attack.

What evidence?

ianryder · Post by **ianryder** » 25 Jan 2007, 08:46

I'm sort of glad the North Sea's running out...Bush might want to invade here otherwise once his pal Tony's gone

I'm not sure it's even all this complicated - the Chinese now hold so many dollars they've got the Yanks by the balls anyway. If they want to sink the US they can do it from a computer screen.

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 25 Jan 2007, 10:37

Sorry that I was the bringer of more depressing news. The situation does have the feel of war becoming increasing inevitable, in that, with each new development, it gets harder not to fall into a war by default. What I found particularly worrying is the extent to which the Chinese could see an attack on Iran as an attack on their interests - suggesting potential for a large escalation. Maybe the threat to the Chinese interest will delay, if not stop, a war. Hopefully there are enough powerful interests in the US and China who see too much disadvantage in a war - mutually assured (economic) destruction. War will become much more likely when peak oil (?) changes that equation. The other marginally hopeful development is that Bush has lost some of the power he previously had and that should act as a brake on some of the rasher neo-con or christian-fundamentalist inspired action he might otherwise take.

If the situation now can be compared with the pre-WW2 one, maybe we are in 1936/37, when the possibility of a war was still off most people's radar. If things carry on in the same direction, does that mean that war is about two or three years away, or is that over simplistic?

Isenhand, you asked what evidence there is that...

It also is apparent that Israel will take the initiative to attack Iran if America fails to do so and there is some evidence that they have already been thwarted by the US in actually carrying out a nuclear attack.

The original LATOC article had a link to a Times article from March 2005.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 78,00.html

There has been quite a lot about this in the media. I don't know enough about what's happening inside Israel to know how real it is. I think, from memory, that Chris (clv101) posted earlier about this, saying that they didn't have the military capability to launch a conventional attack. Also there was a BBC programme on a couple of months about, I can't recall which one, but they interviewed lots of senior IDF people and the message I got from the programme is that they do want to attack Iran, possibly with nukes. However, the programme had a very propagandistic tone, so may therefore just have been sabre rattling. That said, the Israelis certainly feel sufficiently threatened by Iran to be motivated to attack.

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Jan 2007, 12:00

isenhand wrote:
that Patriot missiles are currently being shipped to the Middle East to "protect friendly Arab nations
The Gulf war demonstrated them as being worse than usless!

Their use was more as a symbol of the US helping Israel out, so the Israeli government could agree to the US demand that they stay out of the war without angering their electorate too much. Having said that, I heard that they still had their nukes on standby, and if one of those scuds had come in with a chemical or biological warhead, there would have been a response. Don't know how true that is...

Pippa · Post by **Pippa** » 25 Jan 2007, 12:24

As we are all aware, life isn't all straight lines; actions and consequences aren't that predictable - if they were we'd all be in eutopia!

Don't forget that if US goes down and dollar depreciates all Chinas dollar holdings and alot of their "wealth" will disintigrate into the mist also. Bearing this in mind it wouldn't make sense for China to go for radical change in world power right now, US wouldn't be the only loser, China's got more dollars than anyone

We're ALL in this together - until one lunatic steps out of line and does his (or her) own thing and isn't interested in anything else.

The more I know the thicker I feel!!!!!!

It's all looking very, very messy that's for sure.

isenhand · Post by **isenhand** » 25 Jan 2007, 13:08

Adam1 wrote:
Isenhand, you asked what evidence there is that...

It also is apparent that Israel will take the initiative to attack Iran if America fails to do so and there is some evidence that they have already been thwarted by the US in actually carrying out a nuclear attack.
The original LATOC article had a link to a Times article from March 2005.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 78,00.html

Not much evidence there. ?Secret plans? and ?private meeting?. If they are secret and the meeting is private how does the paper know?

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 25 Jan 2007, 13:25

I agree it doesn't count as evidence but that's journalism for you. All a well-intentioned journalist can do is investigate and dig up things that may point to something being true and use that as the basis for a good guess! My guess (based on no research) is that elements within the Israeli politico-military establishment are probably up for it, while others are more cautious. I'm sure that the US has significant influence too and that, at the moment, they are saying hold-your-horses. But then I could be completely wrong.