Self Doubt
Moderator: Peak Moderation
There's nothing wrong with economists, except when they start pronouncing self-assuredly on geology, history, maths, physics or other subjects outside their field of expertise. The same is true of climate change experts when they write about energy alternatives: e.g. James Lovelock's nuclear = good; wind = bad line in his last book.
I have just been invited to a Computational Finance conference.
One topic is: Latest developments in Fast Fourier Transform approaches for derivatives pricing
How I laughed ... FFTs in finance, sheesh ....
Mind you, Myron Scholes (Nobel prize in Economics for the Black-Scholes equation) is one of the chairs, so perhaps I know nothing!
One topic is: Latest developments in Fast Fourier Transform approaches for derivatives pricing
How I laughed ... FFTs in finance, sheesh ....
Mind you, Myron Scholes (Nobel prize in Economics for the Black-Scholes equation) is one of the chairs, so perhaps I know nothing!
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Re: Self Doubt
Your friend is basically correct, but no seegar. He's obviously no geologist!snow hope wrote:
He works in financial circles - in the centre of things
<snip>
His views are that we have not surveyed all of the Earth and that there are major portions of the earth which have never been explored including large parts of the Oceans/Seas.
There is NO POINT in surveying most of the earth becasue we KNOW that there is going to be no oil there. Most of the deep ocean floor is relatively recent igneous rock spewed out from the mid oceanic ridges. No way is there going to be any oil there. Oil co's will only look in sedimentary structures where there is a hope in hell of finding oil. There's not even a hope in hell most places.
tell your friend to stick to his bean counting and leave the science to the scientists.
Myron Scholes? You mean the guy who were behind one of the most spectacular bankruptcies seen this far with LTCM?Vortex wrote:I have just been invited to a Computational Finance conference.
One topic is: Latest developments in Fast Fourier Transform approaches for derivatives pricing
How I laughed ... FFTs in finance, sheesh ....
Mind you, Myron Scholes (Nobel prize in Economics for the Black-Scholes equation) is one of the chairs, so perhaps I know nothing!
Re: Self Doubt
Have been digesting this during the day, and I get stronger and stronger associations to Hitler's last days in the bunker in Berlinsnow hope wrote:He works in financial circles - in the centre of things - and today he sent me a message basically saying to forget about Peak Oil as he learned something last week which he could not reveal but that it would become public knowledge this year - confirming his views about Global Oil.
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Hi Snow.
This is going to be role reversal with regard to our exchanges of posts - I am going to be the pessimist!
Lets assume for a moment we find 2 Gwahars - which will therefore provide 10 mbpd.
So when the rest of the world (cumulative) hits peak in 2008-2015 , then this extra 10 mbpd would buy us 4 poxy years (assuming 3% depletion in the rest of the world).
So even if your friend is correct (which isnt likely) then we are still in deep do do
This is going to be role reversal with regard to our exchanges of posts - I am going to be the pessimist!

Lets assume for a moment we find 2 Gwahars - which will therefore provide 10 mbpd.
So when the rest of the world (cumulative) hits peak in 2008-2015 , then this extra 10 mbpd would buy us 4 poxy years (assuming 3% depletion in the rest of the world).
So even if your friend is correct (which isnt likely) then we are still in deep do do

TB
Peak oil? ahhh smeg.....
Peak oil? ahhh smeg.....

I sympathise snow hope. I suspect that, like me, your confidence in PO has been shaken, perhaps partly by the seemingly inexpilcable recent fall in the oil price, even though we know that it represents the predicted (manipulated?) price volatility 'at this stage' of PO. From that 'weakened' position, it's easy to have someone, who appears to know something you don't, persuade you that you're mistaken. I have a similar person in my life - someone who knows an extraordinary amount about virtually everything and who is an excellent PO debunker and can run rings around my facile arguments. He regularly convinces me I'm wrong and he's right. But I'm with Vortex on this one: if we are all wrong (and to be honest I don't know whether I want us to be or not) the very worst we have done is make a few changes to our lives that can only be for the better anyway, surely?
My cousin is an Oil geologist working for Talisman oil, she has been transfered to the northern edge of Alaska, to search for new oil finds (has previously worked all over the place doing the same thing.) She has explained in detail just how difficult Alaska is, the weather makes everything 100 times more problematic than the North Sea for example. I asked her why she was there, and in her opinion it's the last place where new oil can be economically extracted. They really would not bother if there were any chance of big finds elsewhere, (the price drop would instantly close the operation).
I'm for the 2012 prediction, and expect the price to vary quite a bit in the coming years, use this time to prepare, five years should be long enough to make some worthwile changes.
I'm for the 2012 prediction, and expect the price to vary quite a bit in the coming years, use this time to prepare, five years should be long enough to make some worthwile changes.
I agree with every post here but lets not jump the gun and perhaps it may not even me oil based lol - probably is by the post from snow - it could be an invention, who knows. You'd all have your peak oil dreams shattered if a person you trusted well showed you the next big thing that made Einstien look like a pleb sat at the back of the clay class. Lets not all be doom and gloom, perhaps snow may be right and her friends 'unknown thingy' may come though based on what he knows. Chances are he wont and you'll all be proved right, but that does not give anyone the right to disrespect Snow's judgment or belief. She knows the man we dont so lets give her (are you a her snow, sounds like a girls name to me
) some credence, who knows what is around the corner errr none of us. The one thing we do know is that change is coming, but then have things ever been any different in the life of all living things? Change is change people it can be good and both bad - thats life its a rollacoaster and I love it 


Why do you think people in the City talk about "rocket science"? They recruit PhDs in maths for their calculations. In the long run it won't solve peak oil. "The bigger they come..... "Vortex wrote:I have just been invited to a Computational Finance conference.
One topic is: Latest developments in Fast Fourier Transform approaches for derivatives pricing
How I laughed ... FFTs in finance, sheesh ....
Is that a prediction for PO?Ballard wrote: I'm for the 2012 prediction,
Theres also an end-of-the-world/apocalypse prediction for 2012, could be an interesting year.
It could indeed be some amazing new invention or technology.MisterE wrote: it could be an invention, who knows.
Who knows, i was surprised to see this in an article on DailyReckoning:
Whilst some of this stuff does have the stench of tinfoil-hat bullshit about it, zero-point energy is real and the laws of physics dont yet explain everything.By "entirely new" I mean such things as zero-point energy. (I know an esteemed aerospace engineer who attests to having seen one of these operating steadily for two weeks on a tabletop in a black ops project), cold fusion (I know a US Naval Research Laboratory physicist who's catalogued evidence that it's real), hot fusion (I own stock in a company that's achieved 1 billion degrees Celsius), a Tesla-based technology that uses the ionosphere as a capacitor and others.
However, i find a zero-point energy invention unlikely, what is perhaps slightly more likely is some kind of nanotechnology based invention, maybe even the holy grail itself the Molecular Assembler, in which case we maybe should start worrying about the so-called Grey Goo.
Anyway the above article redeemed itself somewhat by pointing out how pointless the hydrogen economy is.
I was talking to some finance geeks here at university recently and they were saying how difficult it is to get into any of the large financial institutions unless you know someone through the old-boy network or you're a shit hot Cambridge maths PhD, they really are drooling over the maths PhD's, which reminds of the brilliant film Pi.Cycloloco wrote: Why do you think people in the City talk about "rocket science"? They recruit PhDs in maths for their calculations. In the long run it won't solve peak oil. "The bigger they come..... "
Rob
XENG - University of Exeter Engineering Society
"Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it." - R. Buckminster Fuller
XENG - University of Exeter Engineering Society
"Now there is one outstandingly important fact regarding Spaceship Earth, and that is that no instruction book came with it." - R. Buckminster Fuller
Thanks for all your replys and thoughts.
I was going to reply to a good few of them, but there are many valid points and a few that seem a little invalid, but who am I to say.
None of us can be 100% certain of a lot of things in this day and age, so it is perfectly fine to have strongly held views and opinions, although it is probably wrong to assert that we are certain of many things.
It all comes down to making your own mind up based on the evidence that you have seen and read about. Some of this will no doubt be down to personality too.
I have grown a bit weary of PO, in terms of worrying - you can do so much......
But I stress, that when somebody you trust and respect tells you something that shocks you, it is not easy to ignore it. I shall await further information, as a phone call with the person in question has illicited nothing new, so whatever it is, it must be really, really on the QT.....

I was going to reply to a good few of them, but there are many valid points and a few that seem a little invalid, but who am I to say.
None of us can be 100% certain of a lot of things in this day and age, so it is perfectly fine to have strongly held views and opinions, although it is probably wrong to assert that we are certain of many things.
It all comes down to making your own mind up based on the evidence that you have seen and read about. Some of this will no doubt be down to personality too.
I have grown a bit weary of PO, in terms of worrying - you can do so much......
But I stress, that when somebody you trust and respect tells you something that shocks you, it is not easy to ignore it. I shall await further information, as a phone call with the person in question has illicited nothing new, so whatever it is, it must be really, really on the QT.....
Real money is gold and silver
Okay then you're definately older than I am!!! (I was just out of nappies then!)kenneal wrote:I got my 'O' levels in 1965, SallyI TAUGHT GCEs at 'O' and 'A' level!!


Snow hope....
I too find it tough to keep thinking about PO when so much just goes on regardless and if I were to be given info by a respected friend I would also question my views.
However my gut instinct keeps returning. This society we have built cannot continue indefinately. Peak something will hit! Peak pollution, peak copper, peak crop growing or something. Eventually humans must look at their numbers and recognise that continual growth is not an option.
Ever since a conversation I had with my gran (when I was about 7) - when she described the onset of the world wars; she said that on both occasions the people were totally unprepared for what happened - I have been rather more cautious of what the future could hold. She reckoned nobody knew "how good life was" until it was turned on its head. And before the second WW everybody thought a war like The Great War would never happen again.
She gave me a very realistic view of the complacency that can set in... it was while discussing a letter she had found from a cousin killed in one of the wars. She stared out into the distance and said that it had been written during the good times. She said, "None of us had any idea what was round the corner". That phrase has always stuck with me.
And although Gran didn't mean to, she undoubtly instilled a caution of frivolous living in a young mind.
Only fairly minor adjustments were needed to adjust my outlook to PO!!!
Any insurance we can take regarding future unpredictable events has got to be a bonus.
Yet I also feel we should enjoy life to the full and not make ourselves feel totally deprived while a world of plenty rages on around us. Some go with the flow is required!
Sal