Ambrose latest on the ME crisis...
The ultimatum presented to Qatar by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is akin to the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia in July 1914. No sovereign country can accept such demands. The terms were clearly drafted – like the Habsburg terms – in order to provoke rupture and to justify crushing the country.
The deadline has expired. Leaks suggest that the Qatari response amounts to a flat rejection of the thirteen demands. Doha will not cut economic ties with Iran, or shut a Turkish military base on its soil, or close the Al-Jazeera television network, unless the opposing Gulf states take equivalent steps.
It will not deport dissident religious clerics in Qatar. It refused to pay compensation for past “wrongs�, and denied that its support for the Muslim Brotherhood is illicit. The lines are now drawn for a dangerous stand-off.
“Markets have been too complacent. The events of the last month are qualitatively different from what occurred during previous dust-ups,� said Helima Croft, energy chief at RBC and a former analyst at the US Central Intelligence.
This time Qatar’s enemies have closed the borders, airspace, and ports. They have partly blockaded the Doha peninsular.