Can the Saudis really ramp up oil production

[kenneal - lagger]

OK, peak oil may not be about to happen but even if you double or triple the resource the peak is only put back twenty or thirty years. Given that the Hirsch report said that it would take that time to turn the world's economy over to a different source of power, that's not a very long time.

That is especially so when the oil industry is saying that we have oil for a hundred years. We may have oil to last a hundred or even two hundred years but if it is not produced quickly enough to satisfy demand we get into trouble economically. And that is more of a problem than running out completely. If we run out completely we can't fight wars over who will have what is left!!

While we still think that we have hundreds of years of oil left there is not much of an incentive to find a replacement fuel or technology and implement it. Those who own and work with the oil and the technologies dependent on it will fight tooth and nail to hang onto their financial asset because their livelihoods depend on it. They aren't going to admit that perhaps we had better start on the road to a new technology for the above reason so now we are back to the ralph/rgr arguments.

Then there are the problems which high oil prices cause to the rest of the economy. The last crash was arguably caused or at least exacerbated by the high oil price. The slow recovery from that crash has been caused or at least exacerbated by the oil price remaining relatively high. The price of oil is likely to go higher as the world economy picks up again so we may face another recession very soon.

[woodburner]

At the risk of sounding like a repitition, since fossil fuels are our solar battery, we are relying on solar power. Unlike solar power, fossil fuels can be transformed into something tangible, so they have extended benefits. There is no current alternative to fossil fuels to meet current demands, so when they've gone we will go back to pre-1500s technology for most people, with the added handicap that easy to get at materials have all been used as well.

[PS_RalphW]

I have a science degree from a world class university so I am well aware of the requirement for evidence, but I am also aware group think and brain studies and the human ability for self delusion on breathtaking scale. Everything I have read and experienced over the last ten years points to industrial society hitting a thermodynamic brick wall within my expected lifetime, combined with the onset of climate change enough to lead to widespread starvation. Archeaology is littered with the remains of societies who refused to change their self destructive behaviour in the teeth of evidence right up to the point of population collapse. In our society, the pursuit of money has overwhelmed rational behaviour on a true breathtaking scale, and seems to enable entire societies to cut their own throats in a way that would impress an Islamic suicide bomber.

[RenewableCandy]

More irrelevant condescending waffle

Resource Technology Conference in Denver, Colorado,

TOO obvious, rgr.

Actually, why not simply admit that you're rgr? You'll feel better for it. And we're all giggling anyway so you've nothing to lose.

[Ralph]

OK, peak oil may not be about to happen but even if you double or triple the resource the peak is only put back twenty or thirty years.

The IEA seems to have defined the cost/supply curve on this topic already. The rate at which those resources are developed is a function of economics, and there is certainly no requirement of another peak, long plateaus, dips and increases as we've seen in the 80's, or any one of a number of profiles related to the basics of who wants the liquid fuels, needs the liquid fuels, and what are they willing to pay for them.

Given that the Hirsch report said that it would take that time to turn the world's economy over to a different source of power, that's not a very long time.

The Hirsch report was built on more than a few interesting fundamental assumptions, and unfortunately for Robert a core one related to the estimates of resource available, has already been thoroughly discredited. Thoroughly as in, came apart like a cheap suit.

The mechanism by which it happened is not a surprise, and is not much different from why other claims of peaks, running outs, scarcity, whatever, have come apart.

Unfortunately for Bob, he made it into a pillar of a conclusion, and then levered the same idea into a second conclusion. When the first came down, it also by default destroyed the second. And without them…a core reason for the entire report falls apart.

This is related to his assumptions on resource sizes, it does not directly affect his triangle construction of consequences, or speed at which mitigations are needed to take place.

That is especially so when the oil industry is saying that we have oil for a hundred years.

Well, unless they attached a rate assumption to that number, then they are right, humans will still be producing oil in the 22nd century for sure.

Those who own and work with the oil and the technologies dependent on it will fight tooth and nail to hang onto their financial asset because their livelihoods depend on it.

In a market driven system, this is absolutely a-okay. Buggy whip manufacturers did the same I imagine….until they no longer could.

Then there are the problems which high oil prices cause to the rest of the economy. The last crash was arguably caused or at least exacerbated by the high oil price. The slow recovery from that crash has been caused or at least exacerbated by the oil price remaining relatively high. The price of oil is likely to go higher as the world economy picks up again so we may face another recession very soon.

Could be. But the recession in 2008 was supposed to be a Depression, and wasn't. And then it was supposed to be a recession forever, and wasn't. And then peak oil was supposed to happen, and didn't. And then…and then…and then…. there is a reason why people who want to see the end always see the end. Until they die, and then their kids can pretend to see the end…until they die…rinse and repeat..and pretty soon when someone whips out yet another Malthusian idea everyone is rolling their eyes and doing the "oh boy here we go again" routine.

[Ralph]

I have a science degree from a world class university so I am well aware of the requirement for evidence, but I am also aware group think and brain studies and the human ability for self delusion on breathtaking scale.

I agree. So is that why you hang out here, to watch how those kinds of people? Because when it comes to group think and self delusion, the history of fear mongering related to resource depletion seems to create them in spades.

Everything I have read and experienced over the last ten years points to industrial society hitting a thermodynamic brick wall within my expected lifetime, combined with the onset of climate change enough to lead to widespread starvation. Archeaology is littered with the remains of societies who refused to change their self destructive behaviour in the teeth of evidence right up to the point of population collapse. In our society, the pursuit of money has overwhelmed rational behaviour on a true breathtaking scale, and seems to enable entire societies to cut their own throats in a way that would impress an Islamic suicide bomber.

Do you think that Malthus was any less certain than you?

[Ralph]

More irrelevant condescending waffle

Resource Technology Conference in Denver, Colorado,

TOO obvious, rgr.

Actually, why not simply admit that you're rgr? You'll feel better for it. And we're all giggling anyway so you've nothing to lose.

You have a predilection for Denver? I was at the AAPG National in Pittsburgh in May. The EIA conference in Washington in June. Denver is just Denver, flat, not fancy, the convention center in Pittsburgh is right on the river and triangle and cool, the DC setup was pretty swank and on Pennsylvania Ave, a single stop from the Smithsonian museums and stuff.

It has always seemed to me that if you want to learn something about resources, reserves, the economics or science of oil and gas discovery or production, what is going on with the tight and shale plays, you go where the folks are who do these things and listen to them. Call me crazy that way, but if the alternative are the likes of resilience.org and PCI? Someone, quick, stop me from giggling.

Considering the embarrassing implosion of TOD and ASPO-USA, what appears to be a desperation to convince the professionals that they aren't really as wacky as their writings, rants and bad prognostications might lead some to believe appeared over the past year:

http://peak-oil.org/2013/01/2012-accomp ... 3-outlook/

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... washington#


No more petrocollapse conferences, Fatih just won't let his production numbers decline much (his peak call being what, 7years old now) and it is his organization publishing the likes of the previously referenced cost/supply curve, TOD calls peak in 2008, implodes when production increases, EIA studies have growth in shale/tight resources by an order of magnitude in just 2 years, fastest growing production rates in the history of the US generated from just such resources…I mean really, is it a SURPRISE that resource scarcity isn't quite the scarcity some have been hoping and praying for these many years now?

[RenewableCandy]

Well, they spent a lot of years predicting that certain stuff would start happening. It is now happening. Job done.

[SleeperService]

I have a science degree from a world class university so I am well aware of the requirement for evidence, but I am also aware group think and brain studies and the human ability for self delusion on breathtaking scale. Everything I have read and experienced over the last ten years points to industrial society hitting a thermodynamic brick wall within my expected lifetime, combined with the onset of climate change enough to lead to widespread starvation. Archeaology is littered with the remains of societies who refused to change their self destructive behaviour in the teeth of evidence right up to the point of population collapse. In our society, the pursuit of money has overwhelmed rational behaviour on a true breathtaking scale, and seems to enable entire societies to cut their own throats in a way that would impress an Islamic suicide bomber.

How interesting that Ralphgr has completely ignored this....apart from a personal attack on the group...

No doubt these civilisations were gulled by bull-shitters as well who made sure they got out ahead of the lynch mob.

FACT: The amount of oil is finite. It was created in a finite period of time which gives a limit to how much energy it can contain, i'e it couldn't be made with 'sun light that'll happen next year'.

FACT: Oil is very energy dense and very useful in a lot of ways. Given a demand for increasing goods in any society, a growing population generally and improved efficiency of use, it will be used much faster than it's being created by whatever means.

FACT: At some stage it will become unavailable for use. Either it will all be found and extracted or it will be economically impossible to extract. This would be when it takes much more energy to extract than it contains. Further extraction would only occur for a while if the chemical value of it is high enough until alternatives are developed.

FACT: The industry employ a lot of lobbyists to convince us to keep buying and acting as normal.

FINAL FACT: The actual date for oil 'running out' in either way outlined won't be known until after it's happened lest action to harm corporate interests be taken.

One of these can't be determined until a whistle blower comes along. The rest are as accepted as gravity, death and taxes. Everything else is garbage.

[Ralph]

How interesting that Ralphgr has completely ignored this....apart from a personal attack on the group…

Which part? The "smart guy" angle, or the "well educated" angle, or the idea that neither precludes endless gullibility in a technical field they are not familiar with?

Now just please don't blame me for ignoring your list of facts that no one disputes, and didn't cause peak oil to come along when it was supposed to either.

[SleeperService]

Peak Oil will be happening a LOT sooner than you think if a little later than I think.

[Ralph]

Peak Oil will be happening a LOT sooner than you think if a little later than I think.

Colin Campbell predicted peak oil in 1989. The EIA predicted peak oil in 2037. This month is in 2013, 24 years after Colin's first call, and 24 years before the EIA call.

In 3 weeks that score will be a Colin miss by 25 years, and EIA miss of 23 years even if it happens in 2014. EIA wins in the pin the tail on the donkey contest.

Of COURSE it will always be happening sooner rather than later. That is exactly the first claim made once another resource scarcity cycle has passed.

Hubbert predicted US peak in 1938, to happen by 1950. That one didn't work out, so he thought about it for awhile and did the entire thing all over again in 1956. And it worked! For the US anyway. And only in oil. And maybe not, depending on whether or not the shale oil production in the States can continue to ramp up the way it has. But forget about that for a second…notice that Colin did EXACTLY the same thing..declare peak sooner rather than later…just as you advocate…and then begin playing kick the can.

So the question is, how many "kick the cans" are reasonable when playing this kind of game?