If only

[Tarrel]

Defeatist

If everyone stops flying, the airlines would go out of business and shut down.

You didn't quote the whole of what I said. I went on to point out that if the planes don't fly then the unburnt oil will be burnt by someone else. If the oil is unsold at a price, the price will drop and it will then be sold - and burnt. It's a supply issue and CO2 emissions will not cut until supply is restricted.

Of course demand destruction is an important element in allowing supply restriction, necessary but not sufficient. I don't fly, but I don't pretend that this will have any effect on its own.

Sit back a second and go back to basics.

Aeroplane flies from A to B using X amount of energy. Creating Y amount of noise and heat.

Contrails reflect Z amount of sun's energy back to space before it can warm the atmosphere.

Is X plus Y or Z the bigger number? If the former net contribution if the latter net deduction.

If the planes always flies half empty the airline will share with another on the same route. One plane replaces 2. Second plane put on a different route. If we all cut back air travel there will be no second routes thus a contraction in the numbers flying. Depending on the answer above this could be a good or bad thing.

BTW the grounding of air transport saw daytime temperatures rise and night temperatures fall. This was only two days so the effect at other times of year is unknown. It was definitely covered by the Herald-Tribune at the time.

I see where you're coming from SS, but it doesn't work out as you describe. The effect of the contrail on the amount of solar radiation absorbed only lasts as long as the contrail does, whereas the CO2 produced by burning the aviation fuel sits in the atmosphere for a long time, contributing to the greenhouse effect. The additional CO2 prevents heat from escaping that has been generated by other sources, not just the flight.

[biffvernon]

Wot Tarrel said, rather than relying on the Herald-Tribune at the time, check out the later reports by scientists.