Superb report on peak oil and debt. Going mainstream?

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 28 Jan 2013, 22:45

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/ ... rm_009.pdf

Scan reading this document which has been mentioned widely in the Telegraph finance pages (and I suspect a growing must read in more forward thinking City circles) on our multiple crises.

Its worth reading (or scan reading!) because although it is nothing new to the folks here, it is pretty scary just how bad our predicament is.

I have always said that Peak Oil would first go 'mainstream' in the financial markets because they have a self-interest in understanding the implications. Why? Because PO is very bad for growth, therefore the implications for asset classes are HUGE.

And, yes, although people here won't like to hear it, many in the City and the rich in general will be thinking about how to protect their wealth and enhance it in the opportunities arising from the PO/debt crisis.

This is why, unlike the general public or even governments (at least in public) the City and other financial entities will wake up to the full reality of PO first.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jan 2013, 22:58

Shame they didn't cite The Oil Drum... poor form.

Halfbreed · Post by **Halfbreed** » 29 Jan 2013, 03:18

clv101 wrote:Shame they didn't cite The Oil Drum... poor form.

Why would they?

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 29 Jan 2013, 03:36

It's all the more frightening hearing what we have known about for a long time coming from a main stream source. Something like this could be what puts us over the economic cliff although I suspect that the banks have known this for quite a time; hence their reluctance to lend.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Jan 2013, 07:57

Halfbreed wrote:
clv101 wrote:Shame they didn't cite The Oil Drum... poor form.
Why would they?

Because a lot of the numbers and diagrams were lifted straight off the website, which is published under creative commons - copying is allowed if it is attributed.

[edit]

Not sure the report will have much impact. On the financial blogs this guys is known as 'Dr Doom'. It will be entirely discounted.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Jan 2013, 08:15

Nice pictures. The words I've read so far are in the right order. Tim Morgan has produced a series of these kind of documents and has an interesting blog at http://tullettprebonresearch.com/

Not sure that it's mainstream yet - at Davos there was little change in the assumption that growth is the only desirable future.

Yes, the lack of acknowledgement of sources is a major fail.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 29 Jan 2013, 10:20

Been there, done this.

Moderators, please merge this thread with this one.

Halfbreed · Post by **Halfbreed** » 29 Jan 2013, 13:26

RalphW wrote:
Halfbreed wrote:
clv101 wrote:Shame they didn't cite The Oil Drum... poor form.
Why would they?
Because a lot of the numbers and diagrams were lifted straight off the website, which is published under creative commons - copying is allowed if it is attributed.

I went back and checked, and didn't notice any of the charts and graphs as being lifted from the website. Certainly some are similar, but lets face it, when you make a graph it looks like a bell shaped curve, it might resemble someone else's bell shaped curve graph but that doesn't mean they lifted it. The only ones which seemed to be really, REALLY close to some TOD constructs were the EROEI stuff, but even those weren't the same formatting and whatnot.

Do you have a specific example? Certainly if they did it,it is a major faux paux.

RalphW wrote: Not sure the report will have much impact. On the financial blogs this guys is known as 'Dr Doom'. It will be entirely discounted.

Well, how many times can someone call for the end of the world before people are allowed to notice that...it didn't?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Jan 2013, 13:39

Halfbreed wrote: Well, how many times can someone call for the end of the world before people are allowed to notice that...it didn't?

For quite a lot of people not in our insulated bubble of wealth, it already has. And we're not at the cliff yet.

Post by **adam2** » 29 Jan 2013, 15:51

biffvernon wrote:
Halfbreed wrote: Well, how many times can someone call for the end of the world before people are allowed to notice that...it didn't?
For quite a lot of people not in our insulated bubble of wealth, it already has. And we're not at the cliff yet.

Agree, I doubt that the world will end suddenly.
More likely that the world as we knew it will end fairly gradually, and the begining of the end has arguably started.
Even in the UK we have had the worst banking crisis in living memory, with a run on a major bank. A few years before this happened it would have been unimaginable to most people, but it happened., and is now yeserdays news.
Elswhere we have seen substantial civil disorder with significant loss of life, largely fueled IMHO by high energy and food prices.
The people might SAY that a revolt was to overthrow a dictator, but they seemed to accepct said dictator whilst food and fuel remained cheap.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 29 Jan 2013, 16:39

Halfbreed wrote: Well, how many times can someone call for the end of the world before people are allowed to notice that...it didn't?

And I'm pretty sure the report doesn't call for any such thing anyway.

Halfbreed · Post by **Halfbreed** » 30 Jan 2013, 13:48

emordnilap wrote:
Halfbreed wrote: Well, how many times can someone call for the end of the world before people are allowed to notice that...it didn't?
And I'm pretty sure the report doesn't call for any such thing anyway.

It doesn't. But the author has the implications stamped all over the thing. I actually read it thinking it would have investing advice based on the concepts enumerated,but it didn't have those either. Just "this is bad, can't lead to another good, can't be fixed". Perfectly useless really, just a litany of items, bit short on obvious counterpoints, I wonder what the original objective was?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 30 Jan 2013, 14:15

Fair enough. Thinking of a more manageable example, I'm making a submission to our local council on ways of improving our town, for a town plan taking us to 2020.

Some of the things I see wrong with here, I'm not sure of a good fix for them - space/money/imagination-wise or a combination. But highlighting them, showing I'm concerned and that - most importantly - heads should get together to at least try to think about/fix these things, is a start.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 30 Jan 2013, 14:57

Halfbreed wrote:Just "this is bad, can't lead to another good, can't be fixed".

But that's true isn't it? It can't be fixed. It's not a problem, it's a predicament,

Peter.