2013 Forecasts

[snow hope]

I do wonder what kind of investment MoneyWeek are recommending, given the circs.

They recommend gold, silver and land from what I have seen......

[RenewableCandy]

Hey Cat, I get their emails every day - money week - very advanced in their thinking - saying what others aren't......

Oooh then you can answer my last question ! Given their prognosis, what do they reckon people should do?

[vtsnowedin]

I expect that things will continue to deteriorate in Egypt and the rest of the middle east and some flare up there will spike the price of oil. When the financial markets get a good look at the next US congress and their inability to check federal spending I expect the dollar to take a dive and panic to set in. Just today the markets rose both in stock prices and commodities 1.5% in a few hours. I see that as not an increase in stock share value but an adjustment to the value of the dollars they are priced in. 1.5% inflation per day will wipe out all but the richest in short order. The SS and welfare checks will keep coming as promised they just won't buy you anything.

[RenewableCandy]

I do wonder what kind of investment MoneyWeek are recommending, given the circs.

They recommend gold, silver and land from what I have seen......

Hmm, that's interesting, thanks! The trouble is all 3 are presently on a bit of a price binge.

And after what happened on our Plot, I do wonder about owning land that you're not constantly occupying.

[lurker]

Interesting maybe acurate analysis/ very long winded advert

Why is it written so badly though if they want to be taken seriously & people buy there product they should get a better writer & not repeat the same thing loads of times at the end like a loony conspiracy website.

Also all this blame on welfare state aren't some other countries with very strong welfare doing better than the UK, such as Sweden etc?

Oooh then you can answer my last question Smile ! Given their prognosis, what do they reckon people should do?

Yeah what does in say in there Wealth Preservation Report?

[Catweazle]

We can disagree with where MoneyWeek put the blame, social security in the original sense was the best thing to happen for the working man in our history, but even the softest amongst us must agree that the system has been thoroughly abused by a minority of claimants. Max Keiser puts the blame squarely on Gordon Brown for selling off our gold reserves.

Whoever we blame for the debt, the figures remain the same. If considering our pension obligations in addition to government debt we owe 900% of our GDP.

My fear is that investors will realise that we can't repay that debt, the interest rates will then rise ( yeilds on Govt bonds ), and we will collapse like Greece. If it happens to France as well there will not be enough money in Europe to bail us out.

I'm starting to think that our economy is like the climate - beyond our ability to save. On the bright side, I might be able to buy my kids some houses if metals hold their value when all else slides.

[Lord Beria3]

Interesting article.

Nothing really new for those of us who have been tracking the financial/debt crisis for the last few years.

One thing, though, the crisis they are talking about isn't my definition of a 'hard crash' - more like a Greek style crisis. It may feel like a hard crash to individuals within society but collectively industrialised civilisation goes on, even in Greece!

I'm sure if you go to the nicer parts of Athens the lights are still on, things are still working as usual, the cafes and restaurants are full of people eating and drinking like any other advanced country.

There is no doubt in my mind that Britain will at some point (probably this decade) face a crisis as described in MoneyWeek - but this is not the same as a hard crash as talked about by preppers.

[Lord Beria3]

http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/12/foreca ... ction.html

Kunstlers prediction for 2013.

[UndercoverElephant]

Universal competitive devaluation of all fiat currencies starts to get serious, as each currency area tries to maintain its export market. Money-printing required by the need to inflate, not just the need to cover unpayable debts. This is going to become the "new normal." How long such a situation could last or where it might end is unknown, given that it is entirely unprecedented in world history. I presume people will just eventually stop using these currencies.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 75641.html

A slightly terrifying article on Japan - that country i really on the edge. When the value of Japonese bonds start to collapse, the bloodbath of the pension funds/insurance companies will be horrific. Imagine how the Japonese people will react when their life savings start to collapse on front of their eyes.

The Japonese are a interesting people, in some ways very stoic and reserved yet with a historical tradition of extreme violence and aggression. Kunstler is probably right that we may see a war with China before Japan reverts to a isolationalistic medieval system as globalisation starts to crack up around the world.

First, they are going to inflate their way out of their debt mountain. It won't work.

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... wn-country

The brillant Greer on 2013... as always, a must read (if you have a brain).