If there were 33 cmo's on the wall and one fell off...

[ArowxGames]

Found this great concept for thinking about oil usage the cmo, or Cubic Mile of Oil.

So based on the concept that we use 1 cmo per year globally and that we have about 33* cmo's left it's easy to work out that in 2044 we will be burning our last cmo.

Now all we have to do is figure out how to reduce our usage down to half a cmo or 1/4 a cmo per year and were good for a century.

Personally I think that solar power technology sounds really promising based on the fact that it's similar to computer chip technology which has shown exponential gains and it has such a low efficiency at the moment so has massive room for improvement.

Also nearly all of the nations in the world with large post peak Oil Fields have plenty of desserts in which to set them up and the oil money to make the transition.

*based on the current stated oil reserves with a 40% reduction based on information from wikileaks regarding nations overstating their reserves to maintain investment levels.

[clv101]

So based on the concept that we use 1 cmo per year globally and that we have about 33* cmo's left it's easy to work out that in 2044 we will be burning our last cmo.

Like many easy to work out answers, it's wrong. Say the 1 cmo per year and 33 cmos left are correct, it's not correct to say that we'll continue to use 1 cmo per year (at no time in history has consumption been flat for such a period). Similarly, if there are 33 cmos left, it's not correct to say they will be extracted at a rate of 1 cmo per year until the nothing left. No oil field in history has been extracted at a constant rate until it's exhausted.

One of the main ideas behind 'peak oil' is that the rate of extraction peaks long before the reserve is exhausted. It isn't meaningful to divided the reserves by the extraction rate to try and work out when we'll be burning the last of it.

[ArowxGames]

I would disagree with your logic as it's based on the fact that no single oil field in history has been extracted at a constant rate until exhausted.

One we are entering a post peak era, where demand for oil is pushing up faster than current supplies can match and therefore the price of oil is increasing.

Now as the price goes up less cost efficient oil becomes a valid option, tar sands, deeper fields, smaller fields. Therefore the rate global oil extraction will continue to meet current demand as long as the global economy can meet the rising cost of extraction.

I think the down slope of the peak oil graph will be almost flat with occasional downward steps as the rising oil price pops our economic bubbles one by one (as we have already seen circa 2008).

What can change this is a change to our energy infrastructure from renewables and massive improvements to energy efficiency levels.

[adam2]

This implies that we will sudenly and completly run out of oil in 33 years.

In fact, I predict that oil will still be readily available in 33 years time, though probably at a price much too high to be used as we do now.

I expect that in 33 years time new oil reserves will still be being discovered, though these will probably be small and expensive to exploit.

Oil discoveries, as distinct from oil production/use peaked in the region of 50 years ago.
Oil is still being found, but the rate of discovery is significantly less than the rate of use.

Oil production and use probably peaked in about 2005, therefore the rate of use is already declining, not a straight line decline by any means.

[PS_RalphW]

Sorry ArowxGames but you are completely missing the central point about peak oil production - it is constrained by the geology of oil fields that you cannot get the last dregs of oil out of a field as fast as the first half of the oil simply by drilling more wells or using more advanced (and usually more capital intensive ) technology. You find yourself running faster and faster just to stand still - you end up spending exponentially more capital to sustain the flow rates. This is equally true as you move from the easy sources to the hard sources. You end up spending exponentially more money to sustain the total flow of oil. The end result is that the supply eventually peaks and declines as the global economy will not support ever rising prices. The prices rise far faster than the economy can improve its oil efficiency. Especially as the global economy is itself predicated on exponential growth, which is itself unsustainable.

The downslope will probably more like a staircase or sawtooth, depending on the state of the global economy on the way dawn, but seen from a longer perspective the line will either be a hubbert curve or a shark's fin in the case of a more rapid collapse. I suspect the latter.

[ArowxGames]

My point is that in 33 years time there will be a massive global energy gap and oil will be too expensive and rare to fill it.

In 33 years expect oil to cost the same as gold and yes people will still be finding and selling it but only the richest people on the planet will be using it to fuel their cars.

All we need to do is ensure our politicians, CEO's and everyone we know is made aware of cmo's and this trend so we can start to make the move away from fossil fuels. The sooner we start the migration/transition process the longer we will have with 'cheap oil' to help fuel us towards a greener future.

[clv101]

ArowxGames, to understand more about how this works, the UK Energy Research Centre have an excellent report here:
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/Global%20Oil%20Depletion

This is, in my opinion, the best researched and most rigorous literature publicly available on the dynamics of peak oil.

[clv101]

My point is that in 33 years time there will be a massive global energy gap and oil will be too expensive and rare to fill it.

In 33 years expect oil to cost the same as gold and yes people will still be finding and selling it but only the richest people on the planet will be using it to fuel their cars.

No, even assuming the 1 per year and 33 remaining are spot on, it's incorrect to conclude that 33 years from now is significant.

In 32 years time, when the total reserves are only 1 cmo, it's ridiculous to assume an extraction rate of 1 cmo. That's just not how petroleum geology works.

[PS_RalphW]

ArowxGames

Whilst we can agree that the world needs to plan for a future with very much less oil, can I ask what you highest level qualification in mathematics is?

Do you understand the implications of the term exponential on any real world system?

[ArowxGames]

@RalphW,

It sounds to me like you have just agreed with my last post.

The price of oil goes up.

This opens the way for:

Less cost effective oil reserves to be tapped, e.g. Tar Sands, Deeper Reserves

More efficient usage of the energy and alternate sources.

But given that China, India and Africa are booming demand will remain high, or as high as the worlds economies can afford.

So the first world nations can either fight the new rising nations for the last of the oil or restart our economies with new greener technologies and move beyond the oil age.

[PS_RalphW]

qualitatively yes, quantitatively no.

There is some adaptation. Nowhere near enough to offset the rate of decline.

End of story.

Sorry, if you are not prepared to discuss this in terms like rate of change of flow rates, there is nothing further to discuss.

[ArowxGames]

So you wouldn't agree with Ray Kurzweil's view on solar powers exponential potential or the Rocky Mountain Institutes - Reinventing Fire approach to transforming our energy infrastructure.

[hodson2k9]

All we need to do is ensure our politicians, CEO's and everyone we know is made aware of cmo's and this trend so we can start to make the move away from fossil fuels.

They already know, well the ones with power to do anything anyway, and im pretty confident many CEO's know aswell. Anyone of any real importance and who has any real power in this world, certainly knows of the impending crisis's. They've probably known since america reached peak oil if not before.

Don't expect to see any real moves away from fossil fuels though, just not going to happen. Well not until it is forced upon them/us anyway.

The sooner we start the migration/transition process the longer we will have with 'cheap oil' to help fuel us towards a greener future.

Surely you've read the Hirsch report?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

It was published in 2005 at the request of the US Department of Energy. Even after all the information provided there still twiddling their thumbs doing nothing, of real importance anyway.

The transition should of started 20 years ago or at least in 2005 when this report was published, yet still nothing. The chance of a successful transition to a green future are long gone.

[ArowxGames]

It's basic human nature not to change until a critical event forces our hand.

With politicians you only need to contact them and say you will change your vote unless they do something about the problem.

With corporations you simply let them know you will stop buying their products unless they do something about the problem.

Also if you have the money invest in an electric car or convert your existing one, buy solar panels and/or a small wind turbine.

As well as re-insulating your house.

Germany just generated 20GW of power from solar they are well ahead on the transition curve, and guess what they are they have the strongest economy in Europe!

It's simple economics if you want a buoyant economy you need to get off the old rusty sinking oil tanker and onto a solar yacht.

[emordnilap]

With politicians you only need to contact them and say you will change your vote unless they do something about the problem.

You have to tell them you'll vote for them after they tackle the problem, because politicians will say anything to get a vote. But they get into office on the backs of those who don't care as much as you do...

With corporations you simply let them know you will stop buying their products unless they do something about the problem.

Right. I'll send a letter to Tesco right now, telling them I haven't been in their stores for years and don't intend to; that'll show 'em.

a solar yacht.

Surely canvas is better on a yacht?