2011- the year of the news overload

[emordnilap]

True... but as I said, beyond a certain point fear is not mental but physiological. Most people in my experience are strangely unaware of their bodies, and don't notice that fear is not simply an abstract view of the world, but muscular rigidity, a knot in the stomach, headaches, shivering and torpor. Once you get stuck in the physical symptoms of fear, what you are scared of becomes irrelevant; you're not even really aware of a cause.

Off-topic I know.

I agree about meditation, it can help. Again, it's as much about the body as the mind.

That sounds like a panic attack to me.

Well whatever it was, it was by far the most intense fear I've ever felt.

Still, this ain't the forum for discussing these things, is it.

I disagree - one thing none of us is sure of is the unfolding of events during our lifetime and I for one believe lots of people are going to find themselves in very scary positions, anything from financial scariness through to (who knows?) dealing with revolting masses.

I thoroughly agree (though of course it can only be an opinion) about peoples' lack of awareness of their bodies. Not enough physical effort is required of most people these days, which perhaps leads to a feeling of immunity from harm or at least a disconnectedness.

[mindscience]

On the subject of the Mayan calendar, I personally think they just got tired of counting.

As to the news mayhem, I wouldn't exactly go as far as to say that this is the first time this has happened and that is a coincidence with the year 2012, there have been other examples in history where there were crises and mayhem. I mean, society is like this, every generation believes that the situation is worse than the previous years and then that continues repeating. Maybe it's just simple nostalgia, maybe it's fact, but given that humanity has survived two world wars and God knows what other stuff, I wouldn't be too scared about the world ending.

It might be the end of the world as we know it and it might lead to a serious need to re-structure our society and the way we live, but I don't suppose it will just be one hit and bang and we'll all be gone in an instant.

*I'd still get piss drunk the day before, though, just in case I'm wrong.

[Ludwig]

As to the news mayhem, I wouldn't exactly go as far as to say that this is the first time this has happened and that is a coincidence with the year 2012, there have been other examples in history where there were crises and mayhem. I mean, society is like this, every generation believes that the situation is worse than the previous years and then that continues repeating. Maybe it's just simple nostalgia, maybe it's fact, but given that humanity has survived two world wars and God knows what other stuff, I wouldn't be too scared about the world ending.

You aren't seeing the bigger picture, which is that perpetually increasing population, debt and resource use must lead ultimately to a huge economic and resource crash.

It may be hard to believe that this inevitable, momentous, once-in-a-species point is being reached now, rather than 100 years in the future, but all the signs are that this is the case.

You argument is like someone who's survived two heart attacks concluding that heart attacks aren't dangerous.

My belief that our situation is worse than that of preceding generations is not based on some emotional superstition but on reading, and a perparedness not to disregard uncomfortable facts.

[Ludwig]

I thoroughly agree (though of course it can only be an opinion) about peoples' lack of awareness of their bodies. Not enough physical effort is required of most people these days, which perhaps leads to a feeling of immunity from harm or at least a disconnectedness.

I went on a few conservation working holidays when I was younger. I remember on one of them, wielding a spade on top of Sutton Bank in North Yorkshire in horizontal October rain, thinking how happy I felt - no thoughts of the future, or ambitions, in fact a conscious thought of, "If I died tomorrow, I wouldn't mind; there's only the present."

The whole way our civilisation is constructed makes such feelings of connectedness virtually impossible for sustained periods. When I had this feeling, I was living in a bubble of unreality, taking time out from the rat race, and I knew it couldn't last.

[mindscience]

It may be hard to believe that this inevitable, momentous, once-in-a-species point is being reached now, rather than 100 years in the future, but all the signs are that this is the case.

You argument is like someone who's survived two heart attacks concluding that heart attacks aren't dangerous.

Yes, that is a valid point. And I am not opposed to the understanding that we are up for a serious resource crash, particularly. I guess this came from that little part of me which is unprepared at facing difficult truths and wants to believe that we will be all fine, regardless of what we do. I can't seem to possess the ability to believe one person's mind or actions would change anything (which is to say that I recycle, for instance, but have no confidence in this working, as I see the recycling bins being full of all kinds of cr*p every single day).

I think there might be an air of fear and helplessness, when thinking about a drastic way of changing out society or making people understand things. I mean what did Al Gore achieve with his film a few years back?

Do forgive me, as I am not an expert on the matter and have done sufficient reading to propose my opinion as an ultimately correct one, so please feel free to correct me in case I am wrong at any point.

[Prono 007]

You aren't seeing the bigger picture, which is that perpetually increasing population, debt and resource use must lead ultimately to a huge economic and resource crash.

Yes but we see the bigger picture not from looking at the stars but by studying the things like resource depletion.

The Mayan's may have been excellent astronomers but they're nowhere near as good as we are. Kepler was also a totally brilliant astronomer who was also convinced that the movement of the stars signified events on earth. His astronomy was spot on but his astrology was just plain wrong.

As for 2012 I think that's the wrong year anyway. The year of change is probably gonna turn out to be 2008. Everything changed that year and it's looking like things will never be the same again.

As for the news cycle I think post peak means we are going to have more and more sensational news stories. The other night the top 3 stories were all linked to peak oil: the riots, the economy and the fuel price hikes. Much of the news these days can be related to peak oil - Iraq war for instance.

Something major probably will happen in 2012, and another major economic crash is not unlikely. But as for something that's a once in 22,000 year cycle I can't really think what that might be. Maybe a full scale nuclear war that wipes humans and much else of the planet? Though personally if that does happen I think it'll probably be a lot further off than that.

My belief that our situation is worse than that of preceding generations is not based on some emotional superstition but on reading, and a perparedness not to disregard uncomfortable facts.

Yes but are you saying worse than all the preceding generations of the past 22,000 years?

[UndercoverElephant]

As for 2012 I think that's the wrong year anyway. The year of change is probably gonna turn out to be 2008. Everything changed that year and it's looking like things will never be the same again.

I don't think you can possibly judge that until you've seen what the world looks like at the start of 2013.

Something major probably will happen in 2012, and another major economic crash is not unlikely. But as for something that's a once in 22,000 year cycle I can't really think what that might be. Maybe a full scale nuclear war that wipes humans and much else of the planet? Though personally if that does happen I think it'll probably be a lot further off than that.

I think it will be the most rapid time of changing beliefs about the world. 2012 will be the year when the main rump of the population actually ends up having to completely re-assess their beliefs about the world, industrial civilisation and maybe even reality itself.

My belief that our situation is worse than that of preceding generations is not based on some emotional superstition but on reading, and a perparedness not to disregard uncomfortable facts.

Yes but are you saying worse than all the preceding generations of the past 22,000 years?

It's certainly unique. What is happening (peak everything) could only ever happen once in the history of life on Earth.

[madibe]

No - when the Mayans said the end they meant The End. Not a roll over, not a running out of resources. Not a population crisis and die off.... or anything so trivial.

They were a few years out, but given their technology, not bad.

Of course, we MAY have it in our hands now to avert the coming end.

They didn't have the foresight into technology to envisage that possibility.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

[ziggy12345]

I'm watching "Knowing" while reading this

[madibe]

More:

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/NEO/SEM2M7QR4CF_0.html

So really, pretty shitty. LOL

Peak Oil.... a mere inconvenience.

However, I jest. Look at the program to change the ateroids trajectory...thats ok then.

Oh... 300 meters doesn't sound much but was enough to wipe out 96% of all earth life last time such an occurance happened.

Me, a doomer?

Na!

UPDATE NOTES

2009-Apr-29:
This animation illustrates how the unmeasured physical parameters of Apophis bias the entire statistical uncertainty region. If Apophis is a RETROGRADE rotator on the small, less-massive end of what is possible, the measurement uncertainty region will get pushed back such that the center of the distribution encounters the Earth's orbit. This would result in an impact probability much higher than computed with the Standard Dynamical Model. Conversely, if Apophis is a small, less-massive PROGRADE rotator, the uncertainty region is advanced along the orbit. Only the remote tails of the probability distribution could encounter the Earth, producing a negligible impact probability. Although measurements in 2010-2011 may cut the size of the measurement uncertainty region greatly and result in an "all clear" using the Standard Dynamical Model, it may not be until Arecibo radar in 2013 provides a spin direction that Earth's passage through the probability distribution center can be ruled out.

[Ludwig]

Something major probably will happen in 2012, and another major economic crash is not unlikely. But as for something that's a once in 22,000 year cycle I can't really think what that might be. Maybe a full scale nuclear war that wipes humans and much else of the planet? Though personally if that does happen I think it'll probably be a lot further off than that.

I wouldn't rule out a man-made virus, or just the sudden collapse of Western societies into anarchy, violence and starvation. That's pretty major, pretty one-off: a lot of people would cop it very quickly.

My belief that our situation is worse than that of preceding generations is not based on some emotional superstition but on reading, and a perparedness not to disregard uncomfortable facts.

Yes but are you saying worse than all the preceding generations of the past 22,000 years?

It would be meaningless to say that, as there have always been groups of people suffering, while most went on with their merry lives. But if you're talking about the sum total of suffering that is to come, then yes, it will be unprecedented, if only because there are so many more people in the world than ever before.

But beyond that, I think we are entering the "end of times", and I think civilisation as we know it is shortly to end quickly and dramatically. I don't see how it can't. And I think the situation may be dire enough for the international power elite to decide put the majority of the human race out of its misery. They have the means to do this, of that there is no doubt, the only question is whether they're sufficiently arrogant and immoral to go ahead with it. Of that too, in my opinion, there is no doubt.

So there will be survivors, I think, but life after the crash will be unrecognisable from today; and I suspect that so much will end up broken from our civilisation that the age of technology can be considered a thing of the past.

Everything is born, has its day, and dies, and it amazes me that so many people think of the future of humanity as an endless march of progress. It doesn't make sense, there is no such thing as infinite progress. Most people seem unable to cope with the idea of the total cosmic insignificance and fragility of human civilisation.

[Ludwig]

No - when the Mayans said the end they meant The End. Not a roll over, not a running out of resources. Not a population crisis and die off.... or anything so trivial.

They were a few years out, but given their technology, not bad.

Of course, we MAY have it in our hands now to avert the coming end.

They didn't have the foresight into technology to envisage that possibility.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

I'd be delighted if it turned out we had nearly another 2 decades left. But I don't buy it; Peak Oil, or more precisely the consequent economic collapse, will be the thing that changes everything, and whether coincidentally or not, I think the Mayans will prove to have been very close, if not spot-on.

As for whether technology can change humanity's fate... technology is part of that fate and always was. I happen to think that the future is probably as fixed as the past, but you can argue all day about that without getting anywhere.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Imagine if the government disappeared tomorrow. No police, no legal process, no risk of comeback for any crime whatsoever, however violent and heinous.

... it isn't hard to do....

[biffvernon]

Boff Whalley from Chumbawumba has a good piece on anarchism in the Indy:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 36159.html

[UndercoverElephant]

No - when the Mayans said the end they meant The End. Not a roll over, not a running out of resources. Not a population crisis and die off.... or anything so trivial.

They were a few years out, but given their technology, not bad.

The Mayans didn't "say" anything about what would happen when the Long Count calendar rolls over. The "2012 movement", if that's the right name, have extrapolated their beliefs out of Mayan mythology.

See: http://www.the2012story.com/