What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or geop

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emordnilap
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Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by emordnilap »

Keepz wrote:Says who? There are loads of technologies under development, some of them very well advanced, which will enable us to move away from fossil fuel use as and when we have to.
Fusion? It's been forty years away for forty years now and still is. What else makes up these 'loads'?

A good rule of life is to concentrate on shelter, warmth and sustenance and don't rely on anything not yet invented.

And see the quote I posted yesterday - 'we need more fossil fuels to enable us to transition from them'. Utter bollix. So we burn fossil fuels to build dams to create hydroelectricity? The climate changes and hydro becomes unreliable at best, which is happening already.
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

Apparently climate change will have no effect on global wind distribution, but will entirely change rainfall patterns....
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

DominicJ wrote:Apparently climate change will have no effect on global wind distribution, but will entirely change rainfall patterns....
It is likely to increase average wind speeds and may well influence the paths storms usually follow.
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

UE
It may change the paths storms follow, but I believe anyone predicting that the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS river basin will dry up to be crystal balling.

What happened to warmer and wetter?
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

DominicJ wrote:UE
It may change the paths storms follow, but I believe anyone predicting that the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS river basin will dry up to be crystal balling.

What happened to warmer and wetter?
The DODGY TAX AVOIDERS basin is a very special case. You have to understand that the vast majority of the rain that currently falls in that area does not come from seawater evaporation. The water cycle in that area works as follows:

Air is blown westwards across the south Atlantic, picking up moisture. This moisture is the deposited as rain in the coastal area of rainforest and sucked up by the trees. It is then released back into the atmosphere, is blown a bit further west and falls as rain again. This process repeats itself many times, most of the water always ending up back in the air rather than in a river. It stops when that water has travelled all the way across the continent and hits the Andes on the other side at which point it falls as rain in the foothills and starts the long journey down the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS back to the ocean.

It is highly likely that the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS could become a desert within decades, but this will be primarily caused not by climate change but by deforestation. If you cut down enough trees, you will change the climate in radical ways.

NB: The same process as the one described above used to (a few thousand years ago) deliver large amounts of rain to what is now the Sahara Desert. In this case the process of desertification was considerably slower and primarily caused by natural climate change (lower rainfall) rather than by people cutting down the trees.
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DominicJ
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Post by DominicJ »

pick another river then :p
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

I'm not so sure the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS is special in that way. I remember a geography program on TV where that was a normal mode for rain forest to be sustained far from the ocean.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

RalphW wrote:I'm not so sure the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS is special in that way. I remember a geography program on TV where that was a normal mode for rain forest to be sustained far from the ocean.
It is only special because the process is happening over such a large area in Amazonia. You're right, most rainforest behaves in this way, but most of the world isn't rainforest and most rainforests are much smaller and nearer to the coast than is the case in the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.
Keepz
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Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by Keepz »

emordnilap wrote:
Keepz wrote:Says who? There are loads of technologies under development, some of them very well advanced, which will enable us to move away from fossil fuel use as and when we have to.
Fusion? It's been forty years away for forty years now and still is. What else makes up these 'loads'?
So solar, wind, nuclear fission, hydro, biofuels, tidal, geothermal, hydrogen, demand management and energy efficiency are all useless no-hopers?
Aurora

Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by Aurora »

Keepz wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Keepz wrote:Says who? There are loads of technologies under development, some of them very well advanced, which will enable us to move away from fossil fuel use as and when we have to.
Fusion? It's been forty years away for forty years now and still is. What else makes up these 'loads'?
So solar, wind, nuclear fission, hydro, biofuels, tidal, geothermal, hydrogen, demand management and energy efficiency are all useless no-hopers?
In case you've missed an episode Keepz, we've already got most of the technologies you mention.

Fusion, on the other hand, isn't currently available and as PO kicks in, where are we going to find the funding required for R&D?
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Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by Keepz »

Aurora wrote:
Keepz wrote:
emordnilap wrote: Fusion? It's been forty years away for forty years now and still is. What else makes up these 'loads'?
So solar, wind, nuclear fission, hydro, biofuels, tidal, geothermal, hydrogen, demand management and energy efficiency are all useless no-hopers?
In case you've missed an episode Keepz, we've already got most of the technologies you mention.

Fusion, on the other hand, isn't currently available and as PO kicks in, where are we going to find the funding required for R&D?
Yes, so we're agreed on my original comment:
There are loads of technologies under development, some of them very well advanced, which will enable us to move away from fossil fuel use as and when we have to.
As PO kicks in, oil will get more expensive and consumers will be more prepared to pay for alternatives. That's where the money will come from - redirecting the money that is currently spent on oil production and consumption towards more profitable (for the producer) and cheaper (for the consumer) alternatives. This process has already started, hence the availability of the above mentioned technologies, and it will intensify as the economic signal gets stronger.
Aurora

Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by Aurora »

Keepz wrote:As PO kicks in, oil will get more expensive and consumers will be more prepared to pay for alternatives. That's where the money will come from - redirecting the money that is currently spent on oil production and consumption towards more profitable (for the producer) and cheaper (for the consumer) alternatives. This process has already started, hence the availability of the above mentioned technologies, and it will intensify as the economic signal gets stronger.
I don't buy that I'm afraid. I suspect it's too late for change.

As PO really begins to bite, Western economies will sink like a stone leaving very little in the kitty for the 15 - 20 years of R&D required.

We need a massive investment in new technologies now, not at some later date when TPTB finally accept that we have a problem.

To date, globally, we've only been throwing small change at new energy related technologies. :(
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emordnilap
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Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by emordnilap »

Keepz wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: We have worked under the assumption that by the time the crunch came, our descendents would have figured out a technological means of escaping from it. This turns out to have been a very foolish and dangerous assumption.
Says who? There are loads of technologies under development, some of them very well advanced, which will enable us to move away from fossil fuel use as and when we have to.
emordnilap wrote:Fusion? It's been forty years away for forty years now and still is. What else makes up these 'loads'?
So solar, wind, nuclear fission, hydro, biofuels, tidal, geothermal, hydrogen, demand management and energy efficiency are all useless no-hopers?
That's cheating, including established technologies. :D Your original post sounded like someone planning what to do with their lottery winnings before the draw.

As for...
Nuclear fission: fail.
Biofuels: fail.
Hydrogen: fail.
Hydro: fail, because burning those fossil fuels has altered weather patterns...

Most of your list at present depend upon an available and affordable supply of fossil fuels. We need to stop burning fossil fuels for frivolity now and use them solely to create endurable infrastructure for solar and geothermal energy capture.

Oh, you missed out 'being happy with less.' That's the only one that really works full time. 8)
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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emordnilap
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Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by emordnilap »

Aurora wrote:To date, globally, we've only been throwing small change at new energy related technologies. :(
Meanwhile, we have thrown trillions at nuclear fission. It's yet to make any profit, hardly generates any energy and has left us with countless generations of problems.

I'm always reminded of the 'If sunbeams' quote... :cry:
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
RGR

Re: What's the root of "the peak" -- economics or

Post by RGR »

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Last edited by RGR on 12 Aug 2011, 02:47, edited 1 time in total.
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