Explaining Peak Oil as an idea.

postie · Post by **postie** » 13 Nov 2010, 10:38

A good few years ago when I first read Matt Savinar's frontpage on Life After The Oil Crash, there was a handy explanation of how PO worked with an increasing population, using the metaphor of a Petri dish and bacteria. It made perfect sense to me.

I was wondering if others have come across similar metaphors to explain Peak Oil or have thought of their own metaphor

Here's one I've been thinking about.

There's a very VERY big apple tree. For a person standing on the ground, the lower branches, weighed down with fruit are easy to reach and you can pluck as many apples as you could want.
But the apple tree is the only one. And, as more people would like apples, all the lower branches are quickly stripped of the juicy easy to reach apples.
The people, now growing in number and hearing about this fruit tree decide to build a ladder to prop against the trunk. The apples on slightly out of reach branches are more abundant and can feed more people. There seems to be enough for everyone. But...
The middle branches soon get stripped of all the apples, so, the people being very fond of the apples decide to build a bigger ladder to reach the top most branches. A lot of time, expense and effort went into building the ladder by the apple-mad people.
Of course the apple tree doesn't have so many apples on the upper branches and they're hard to get at.. some have been pecked at by birds and are hardly worth eating....and the people start to squabble over the remaining apples.

I know it's not a perfect metaphor, but it's an example of what i mean.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 13 Nov 2010, 10:50

The only trouble with that is that more apples will grow next year. That may be kind of true of oil, that in a few million years there may be more of it, and if any humans are still alive there might be another oil based economy, but how do you explain the time scale using an apple tree?

featherstick · Post by **featherstick** » 13 Nov 2010, 15:14

Cup of tea.

The first half of the cup of tea is fresh, hot, and easy to get to. The second half is not-so-fresh, cooler, and the cup needs to be tilted further.

postie · Post by **postie** » 14 Nov 2010, 08:32

JohnB wrote:The only trouble with that is that more apples will grow next year. That may be kind of true of oil, that in a few million years there may be more of it, and if any humans are still alive there might be another oil based economy, but how do you explain the time scale using an apple tree?

Like I said, it's not a perfect metaphor... maybe if you said the apple tree was the only one in the world.. and it only ever fruited once... it'd make slightly more sense.

But as a rough metaphor I think it kinda works.

So.. does no one have any others?

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 14 Nov 2010, 12:37

postie wrote: So.. does no one have any others?

Erm, how about milkshakes?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsQcS0zr4tM

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 14 Nov 2010, 20:15

JohnB wrote:The only trouble with that is that more apples will grow next year. That may be kind of true of oil, that in a few million years there may be more of it, and if any humans are still alive there might be another oil based economy, but how do you explain the time scale using an apple tree?

No more oil I'm afraid. It was a one shot deal

woodpecker · Post by **woodpecker** » 14 Nov 2010, 21:30

Jar of Nutella It's a bloomin' nightmare to get the last 25% out, with all those pesky corners and nooks. As I recall (haven't had one for years).

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 14 Nov 2010, 21:36

Nutella is vile. Why anyone would want to get it out of the jar is a mystery to me...

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 14 Nov 2010, 21:38

I use the sweetie jar model.

The top layer is easy to reach ... natural oil seepages

The next layer needs drills ... wooden derricks

The next layer need deep drilling ... modern rigs

And the bottom layer is a pig to reach and the sweeties are all smashed up .. deep sea etc.

6ft2britishmale · Post by **6ft2britishmale** » 17 Nov 2010, 20:40

I liked Leggett's analogy of "The Blue Pearl" in his book Half Gone.

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 17 Nov 2010, 22:18

How about just trying to explain Peak Oil? I see it like this

You are in a football stadium with 80,000 others and there is a guy in the middle with 2 buttons, red and green. He is going to press one and asks the crowd to choose. One kills everybody and the other lets everybody live. The crowd is chanting GREEN GREEN GREEN but you know its the red button that lets everybody live. How do you convince the other 80,000 people to change their minds?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 17 Nov 2010, 22:48

You don't, you just run out of the stadium as fast as you can.

postie · Post by **postie** » 18 Nov 2010, 00:25

ziggy12345 wrote:How about just trying to explain Peak Oil? I see it like this

You are in a football stadium with 80,000 others and there is a guy in the middle with 2 buttons, red and green. He is going to press one and asks the crowd to choose. One kills everybody and the other lets everybody live. The crowd is chanting GREEN GREEN GREEN but you know its the red button that lets everybody live. How do you convince the other 80,000 people to change their minds?

That's a worse analogy than my apple tree.

A full footballl stadium however could be a decent metaphor...

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 18 Nov 2010, 15:08

Anyone see the prog about the 87 days of the BP disaster? The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that they should have tried Nutella instead of mud...

Adam Polczyk · Post by **Adam Polczyk** » 27 Nov 2010, 09:05

Peak Oil & Climate Change: Rates & Risk: Explanations with Flair - Kurt Cobb