The Big Question

[CountingDown]

I would imagine so. I'm not a Kiwi, but I do remember them getting rid of their air force a few years ago.

Their only chance would be people not bothering due to size / weather, but that is surely only short term. Long term, they'd be a nice colony to have.

[Lord Beria3]

You assume that the Indonesian military don't implode before the Australians. Regarding the Chinese, the idea that they could launch a successful military invasion of Australia and defeating the US Navy in the process is a highly unlikely one.

China is more likely to intervene in central asia, where it is difficult for the Pentagon to easily transfer troops than starting a half-mad scheme to cross the pacific.

Regarding New Zealand, assuming that its population was reasonably low than it is concievable that that some form of sustainable civilisation could continue. Afterall, white settlers survived there pre-oil

[Lord Beria3]

The leaked draft report by the German military into peak oil confirms my thesis and analysis regarding a tipping point in which industrial civilisation goes into decline than collapse.

.2 Systemic risks after reaching a “tipping point”
In addition to the gradual risks, there might be risks of non-linear events, where a reduction of economic output based on Peak Oil might affect market-driven economies in a way that they stop functioning altogether, leaving the range of a relatively steady downward trajectory.

Such a scenario could pan out by an initially slow decline of trade and economic activity, combined with higher stress on government budgets from lower tax income, higher social cost and growing investment into alternative technologies.

Investment will decline and debt service will be challenged, leading to a crash in financial markets, accompanied by a loss of trust into currencies and a break-up of value and supply chains – because trade is no longer possible. This would in turn lead to the collapse of economies, mass unemployment, government defaults and infrastructure breakdowns, ultimately followed by famines and total system collapse.

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/201 ... gy-crisis/

I posit the time-frame of around 2020, with the famine/system collapse hitting the Third World and the industrialised great powers around 2030.

[snow hope]

If only we had that long Beria!!!

[Comp_Lex]

That's enough time if we start something big in the next 5 years.

[kenneal - lagger]

That's enough time if we start something big in the next 5 years.

Get writing to your MP and MEP then. You might have more success with your MEP because they are a lot more remote from the electorate in the ivory towers of Brussels and won't be quite so frightened of rocking the financial boat. Write to both, though.

[Lord Beria3]

We have the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the reorganization of Russia, the reforming of the Chinese government and economy, and the creation of the EU and euro. This parallels the global political power shifts that occured around 1870 including the opening of Japan, the Franco-Prussian War and the emergence of the unified German Empire, and the unification of Italy.

The end of the dotcom bubble, caused by overinvestment in technology venture and preparations for Y2K, parallels the Panic of 1873, caused by overinvestment in speculative railroad ventures.

We are now in a period analogous to the 1880s decade. The French invade Tunisia because of attacks on them in Algeria. The British take over Egypt because of attacks on foreigners. The British send Lord Gordon to Khartoum with bad results. The Triple Alliance is created between Germany, Austia-Hungary, and Italy. A bomb kills one policeman and injures many more at Haymarket Square. George Eastman, the Steve Jobs of his day, patents the hand held camera.

By 2040, when the oil truly runs out, we will hear the Guns of August again.

Interesting historical perspective, it may be that in the Great Game of late-industrialism, the first round of collapsing states/societies happens around 2020 in parts of the third world, a second round of collapses around 2030 of the weaker industrialised powers and the remaining third world and finally the remaining industrialised powers going into 2040 are plunged into a final world war using nukes over the remaining scraps of resources.