How else can you react?

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 29 Jan 2006, 22:05

Well yes, N.A.T.P., but we do have other things on our side. Like we eat more now than is necessary. And a huge amount of food grown in this country is wasted by supermarkets because it's not the right shape or colour or size or something like that.

And there's always people's gardens, town greens, overgrown abandoned allotments etc that we can rip up and use for food production!

I suppose we'll have to prioritise oil use for food production while we try and wean ourselves off it.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 29 Jan 2006, 22:44

Neily at the peak wrote:Just for info

U.K. Self-sufficiency (2004 provisional)

All food 64 %
Indigenous type food 77%

Taken from Farm Management Pocketbook by John Nix 36th edition (2006)

Printed by Imperial College London Wye Campus.

Not to good is it!

And thats with oil, gas, fetilisers, pesticides e.t.c

Neily-at-the-peak

Thats based on 3500 calories per head

Thats based on 33% of all food production going in the bin due to fussy specifications by supermarkets (as said by big jim)

Thats based on 15% of our land set aside.

Thats based on the hugely calorific inefficiency of eating meat - ie it takes 1000 calories of grain to make 100 calories of meat.

Thats based on producing hugely inefficient foods like ready meals, confectionary etc

Remember those EU food mountains? There really is huge surplus capacity in food production in Europe. We just need to use the time we have this surplus to change gradually over to more sustainable farming while at the same time allowing the population to drop.

But remember fertilizers and diesal can be made from coal as well as natural gas.

Agriculture takes less than 1% of energy demand/consumption in the UK

So food should be ok - if managed correctly (big if!!!

)

Neily at the peak · Post by **Neily at the peak** » 30 Jan 2006, 11:05

ooh! I love it when I get my optimism tanks refilled. I have taken all that into account in the long term, however what frightens me is the lack of preparedness in the UK for it, particularly amongst farmers and the general public. If the crash happens quickly and we are without oil almost overnight we are in trouble. If however it is slower then we will be able to make the transition. We have already reduced our meat intake and are not missing it.

I would love the opportunity to meet with and speak to a group of influential farmers. Any ideas anyone?

If something doesn't happen soon the die-off in the UK is a very possible reality.

RookieJr · Post by **RookieJr** » 30 Jan 2006, 13:31

But hold on, that's based on the current world infrastructure in which we get a lot of products from abroad, clothes for example. If we weren't able to do that then we'd need to allocate land for more sheep, cotton plants (can we even grow them here?) and so forth. It's not as straightforward as you may think

newmac · Post by **newmac** » 30 Jan 2006, 13:33

Not really. I suspect we have enough clothes in the Briatin to last us for about 50 years without making anymore.

It's like our infrastructure - whereas our ancestors had to spend a lot of time building dry stone walls, roads and houses, we've done all that so won't have to spend as much time doing it.

bigjim · Post by **bigjim** » 30 Jan 2006, 16:18

RookieJr wrote:But hold on, that's based on the current world infrastructure in which we get a lot of products from abroad, clothes for example. If we weren't able to do that then we'd need to allocate land for more sheep, cotton plants (can we even grow them here?) and so forth. It's not as straightforward as you may think

We could always ditch cow farming and replace them with sheep- more wool for us all! And don't forget we've been importing cotton since before the oil age.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 30 Jan 2006, 17:18

RookieJr wrote:But hold on, that's based on the current world infrastructure in which we get a lot of products from abroad, clothes for example. If we weren't able to do that then we'd need to allocate land for more sheep, cotton plants (can we even grow them here?) and so forth. It's not as straightforward as you may think

A lot of bulk material is not time sensitive. We could import wool from New Zealand using sailing ships (or ships pulled by kites) That the trip might take twice or more of the time than it does at the moment is not a problem. Manufacturers would just adjust their lead times.

The problem lies with stuff that has to be moved quickly and kept in a regulated environment when on the move - Apples from New Zealand. Green beans from Zimbabwe. Mangoes from Brazil. Thats where Peak oil will have its first effects, I think. Fresh exotics will dissapear from the supermarket shelves once fuel starts to get seriously expensive.

And remember... transport by large ship (hundreds of thousands of tons per vessel) is very efficient in energy terms. Compared to other forms of transport fuel cost is only a small portion of total shipping cost.

Cotton cannot be grown in the UK. Its too cold. You need to be somewhere like Mississippi or Egypt.

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 30 Jan 2006, 19:40

Trade will not cease,

I'll still be buying underpants from China in my 80's.... If I can afford them that is.

The problems will be economic, I doubt I'll be able to afford a new Ipod in 2010, oh well never mind. I'll probably be too busy collecting wood to have time to download anything anyway.

RookieJr · Post by **RookieJr** » 30 Jan 2006, 20:20

Okay well it was just an example, a rather poor example I guess

I guess I could have used wood as a better illustration of something we'd need more of, since wood is a pretty vital material, especially in a post-oil world. I was just trying to say that food is not the only thing land is needed for and if overseas trade becomes limited then some of that land needs to be available for other uses. So we'd actually have less land to provide food and less imports of it too. A double whammy which I don't believe a population of 60 Million on a tiny island can survive.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 30 Jan 2006, 23:52

There is a very good and selfish reason for having loads of kids. Its the same reason as in many developing countries: your kids = your pension.

Post PO independence in old age will be a thing of the past. Extended families will rule and your sonsa and daughters will provide for you.

Its not a one way street either. The older generation always has much to teach the youngsters: trake cooking, child care, house repair, agriculture, etc.

Forget your pension and get a life: have quintets.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 30 Jan 2006, 23:57

Also in another thread we calculated that the cost of transport by a tanker is less than 0.5% of typical goods and by lorries from central Europe some 4%. So even with oil price increasing by a factor of 4, imports will retain their advantage over local production, provided salary differentials remain.

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 31 Jan 2006, 00:29

PaulS wrote:Also in another thread we calculated that the cost of transport by a tanker is less than 0.5% of typical goods and by lorries from central Europe some 4%. So even with oil price increasing by 4, imports will retain their advantage over local production, provided salary differentials remain.

Thats the trouble, Salaries! Its hard to predict but Post Peak at a guess as gotta kill salaries - i'm 99% positive on. So a drop in Salary and a hike in Transport and production = The Pessimistic in me that sees a Apocolyptic (Mad Max) PO Future! Yet the supply meed demand and Free Market Current Price dictates demand in me = The More Optimistic that sees a steady decline that never really affects my lifetime generation???

Confused? Yes I am. I suppose I'll have to wait.

RookieJr · Post by **RookieJr** » 31 Jan 2006, 18:52

PaulS wrote:Also in another thread we calculated that the cost of transport by a tanker is less than 0.5% of typical goods and by lorries from central Europe some 4%. So even with oil price increasing by 4, imports will retain their advantage over local production, provided salary differentials remain.

A rise of 4 is pretty conservative. It could rise by a lot more than that. Then you have to add in the cost of production, after all, tractors are fueled by oil-based products. This would affect UK production and overseas production.

I would suggest that foreign countries may well wish to keep their food to themselves in a time of food shortages.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 01 Feb 2006, 09:14

Sorry, I meant to say rise to 4 times current cost.