Opting out before the UK becomes 3rd world?

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 10 Dec 2009, 19:31

I have a nasty feeling that the UK economy could grind to a shuddering grubby halt for a few years.

Assuming we have say one or two years before SS Great Britain hits the rocks, what should we do on a personal level?

Opt out as much as possible, so high taxes etc simply don't affect you?

Start a business or get a better job so you have more money than the rest of the suckers?

Or simply stick with it and ride it out?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 10 Dec 2009, 19:54

Yawn.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Dec 2009, 20:19

Agree with you. A few years ago I came to the conclusion that on present trends the UK was ten years away from a 3rd world state. The events of the previous few years have put us alot closer to that position at a speed which has shocked me.

The uber-doomists who have claimed that we are in for a hard crash are increasingly persuasive. The system is so clogged up with debt and fragile in our globalised market that it really wouldn't take much for the whole house of cards too collapse quite quickly.

My personal strategy, which I have implemented starting 2008, is the following:

Get together a basic emergency kit like tinned food, solarwindup stuff which will be useful in a blackout/chao situation

Been learning useful skills which should come useful in a slow crash/hard landing situation - growing food, shooting etc

Put some of my money into gold as a insurance for hyperinflation/collapse

Finally, my medium term strategy is to try and make as much money as possible in the next few years and put that money into hard assets. The more assets/money I accumulate the more options I have; I am considering longer term, if I achieve my financial goals of considering moving to Switzerland which I consider one of the safest places to be be in the coming decades.

Luckily I am not on the UK mainland at the mo.

Of course, not everybody can move nor would i want them too, perhaps moving to a safer location in the UK may be a wise idea. I have discussed this before, but no consesus has ever emerged regarding the better places to live in.

Kentucky Fried Panda · Post by **Kentucky Fried Panda** » 10 Dec 2009, 20:39

somebody has been reading the LATOC news page again

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 10 Dec 2009, 20:56

UndercoverElephant wrote:Yawn.

Someone hasn't been reading the analyses of yesterday's Pre Budget Report.

stumuzz · Post by **stumuzz** » 10 Dec 2009, 20:58

Vortex,

You are so ahead of the curve I really would not worry about it too much. Actuarially speaking what would you gain by moving?

If there was a petrol strike you would be fine, if food became scarce, suddenly,you would have more helpers and friends to help you on your land! Civil strife, the world must have gone tits up for the zombie hordes to reach your land and try steal a cabbage, even if they were trying to steel your wire fence to smelt, it means there must be a functioning economy in which to sell it.

I think, could be wishful thinking, that the UK will be one of the best places to be in the coming years. The general populace do not know whats going on. When they do find out there will be a huge explosion of super fantastic ideas, to save their households. Watch this space.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 10 Dec 2009, 21:02

Stumuzz,

What an amazing optimistic post.
I hope you're right.

But I'm a worrier, I believe a bit like Vortex.

We don't need a functioning economy in Britain for the barbed wire fences to be stolen and sold for scrap.

Look what happened to Russia. It got looted on a large scale when things collapsed.

Right now, the Chinese are buying up entire factories which are dismantled brick by brick and shipped to and then rebuilt in China.

Think of all those BMWs and Mercedes in the UK for example.
If we went hyperinflationary in the UK, those items could still get good money in external currencies if they were shipped out in containers to buyers in countries who still had a hard currency and a functioning economy. e.g. Russia and Brasil

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 10 Dec 2009, 21:52

We don't need a functioning economy in Britain for the barbed wire fences to be stolen and sold for scrap.

It's happening now.

Someone locally bought some ducks and a duck house.

A couple of days later ... gone. Stolen.

The police do eff all. The criminals are better armed and tougher than the rural police.

Those of you who live in the country know what section of the community I am talking about.

Those people who steal anything which isn't bolted down, and who regard any locked building as a challenge.

They flout the law every day and get away with it.

P*sses me off.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 10 Dec 2009, 22:43

I haven't the faintest idea what to do. I agree that the UK is likely to suffer economic collapse - but then so are most other countries. Germany for example may have a better balance of trade, but if the rest of the world's gone bust, who's going to buy Germany's luxury cars and washing machines?

The fact that the UK's economic model has been based on "financial services" (i.e. lending money based on the assumption of future growth) is worrying - and yet, on the other hand, the ostensibly more down-to-earth economies based on manufacturing have still, indirectly, bought into the same insane idea, because it's their goods that we've been buying with our magic money.

The way I see it, there are some basic low-risk actions that everbody should take: buy lots of tinned food and wind-up gadgets, get your property REALLY secure, learn as much as possible about growing your own food, fit solar panels (the latter 2 options are out for me, as I live in a flat).

I think there will be a fairly fast crash once the oil down slope starts, and anything that buys you a few months of thinking/preparing time will be very valuable indeed. I'm not sure whether it really makes sense to plan years ahead. E.g. starting your own business - you may do OK, but you could end up in a real mess if everything goes totally tits-up. (As someone with the business sense of a blackberry, this is not a dilemma that affects me.)

Kentucky Fried Panda · Post by **Kentucky Fried Panda** » 10 Dec 2009, 22:45

Here's what you should do...

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 10 Dec 2009, 23:21

LorneGifford · Post by **LorneGifford** » 11 Dec 2009, 08:32

Just reading through some of these forums and couldn't resist commenting on this one.

Personally I don't believe there will be a hard crash. Monetary collapse is a distinct short term possibility though, made somewhat more distinct by this mornings news that UK bonds are not being bought anymore (UK bonds + monetary easing = the way the government funds it's debt).

There are two ways of dealing with civil disorder so that it doesn't overtly affect you and your family. The first is to help those that ask as far as is possible and by so doing build a supportive community that is strong enough to apply the second method. The second method is to be in a stronger position than the antagonists. At its most basic this means firepower and the mindset to use it without remorse. Simple Medieval community living.

If we do have a hard crash, then since I line in London, I'll be heading out to the country looking for someone following the first method. Any takers?

caspian · Post by **caspian** » 11 Dec 2009, 09:03

Vortex wrote:The police do eff all. The criminals are better armed and tougher than the rural police.

Those of you who live in the country know what section of the community I am talking about.

Vortex, I can't remember whereabouts in the country you moved to, but I live in the country and I don't recognise your characterisation at all. I live in a not particularly prosperous area of South Wales (although it's not poverty-stricken either). Crime seems to be pretty low round here - I've never heard of anyone being burgled, and I've never felt at risk.

stumuzz · Post by **stumuzz** » 11 Dec 2009, 09:09

Vortex wrote:
We don't need a functioning economy in Britain for the barbed wire fences to be stolen and sold for scrap.
It's happening now.

Someone locally bought some ducks and a duck house.

A couple of days later ... gone. Stolen.

The police do eff all. The criminals are better armed and tougher than the rural police.

Those of you who live in the country know what section of the community I am talking about.

Those people who steal anything which isn't bolted down, and who regard any locked building as a challenge.

They flout the law every day and get away with it.

P*sses me off.

Quick question for you.

Have you ever been poor? Not poor as in could not afford a bottle of wine, but poor, as in you had to go picking cockles off rocks to buy food for the family?

I will be back tonight to get your answers!

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 11 Dec 2009, 09:48

Vortex wrote:Someone locally bought some ducks and a duck house.

A couple of days later ... gone. Stolen.

I'm sure they can get another one on expenses.