Are we post peak?

[Andy_K]

And what he deliberately left unsaid was

"It remains to be seen whether that peak was the peak of peaks, or just another peak"

[RGR]

[quote="ziggy12345"][

[RGR]

[quote="Andy_K"]

[biffvernon]

Sidestepping the light banter, my point was quites serious:

So now we have to move the discussion on to the more important aspect of what shape the downslope will be. When will the milestone of Half Peak occur?

I was at a community meeting last night in which a plan for my town's development was being presented. The timescale went to 2020 and beyond but although there was a small reference to the likelihood of increasing energy prices, the idea that we might be using half the oil we are now was just not on anyone's radar.

We need some realistic handle on the shape of the downslope so that we can talk to the powers that be in local government and planning. An estimate of when we get to Half Peak would be a good stariting point.

Any offers?

[PS_RalphW]

The problem with production on the down slope is that reality starts to become chaotic on a large scale.

From a purely geological view, with unlimited investment in new fields, technologies and unconventional sources. reduction in production might be limited to say, 3% a year for a few decades. That gives about 20 years to 50% decline.
After that the long tail kicks in and we are on to a more gentle decline.

However, that doesn't take into account the declining EROEI of new oil developments. There is strong evidence that the world economy cannot afford 87M barrels a day of $100 oil. ($100 production cost, not price) So the economy will contract, along with production until oil is used more efficiently and in smaller quantities. The net effect is a faster production decline rate, of maybe (pick number our of air) 5% a year, giving 50% in ten years (2020).

Of course, that still depends on the global economy contracting smoothly. Given the financial system is unstable when confronted with contraction, we are likely to see boom and bust on an accelerated scale. That disrupts long term investment in new oil supplies, and we might see 7% average decline due to lack of new investment 50% in 7 years, 2016.

Of course, all this economic chaos will destabilise the world politically and militarily. Potential resource wars could see 50% reduction of supply in about 7 minutes....

Take your pick.

[SILVERHARP2]

Of course, that still depends on the global economy contracting smoothly. Given the financial system is unstable when confronted with contraction, we are likely to see boom and bust on an accelerated scale. That disrupts long term investment in new oil supplies, and we might see 7% average decline due to lack of new investment 50% in 7 years, 2016.

just pray that Obama's new deal will screw up the US economy for 20 years just like FDR did. If US GDP were to drop by 50% over the next decade it would give the world a decent breathing space.

[ziggy12345]

....Potential resource wars could see 50% reduction of supply in about 7 minutes....

Lol... About the flight time of an ICBM from USA to China... and back

[PS_RalphW]

Lol... About the flight time of an ICBM from USA to China... and back

Actually that would be about 30 minutes each way

[RGR]

[quote="biffvernon"]S

[RenewableCandy]

You may not have noticed, but we are capable of having a perfectly good spat without you (FilterFeeder and Foodinistar, for example).

And the plural of "Scenario" (and indeed of any other noun) does not include an apostrophe, except in the possessive. Erm, both sides the Pond.

[biffvernon]

5% a year, giving 50% in ten years (2020).
7% average decline due to lack of new investment 50% in 7 years, 2016.

Thanks Ralph, that's a useful line of thought but is the sunshine affecting my arithmetic or is there something wrong with those numbers?

[clv101]

A) It will look like other downslopes or
B) It will not look like other downslopes.

How about it will look like America's downslope without Alaska, ~30% in a decade (where the economy in question carried on more or less) or Russia's from late eighties to mid-nighties, ~50% in less than a decade (where the economy crashed).

Globally I think something approximating one of these is likely. Maybe best case is something more like US48+Alaska as there will be some significant new developments. That would be close to 10% down in a decade.

[RGR]

[quote="clv101"]

[ziggy12345]

Quite acceptable as an example of decline for a large and mature producing area.

...Large as in "The World"

[RGR]

[quote="ziggy12345"][quote="RGR"]