NEWSNIGHT - PEAK OIL!

thorgal · Post by **thorgal** » 22 Dec 2005, 15:32

Tess wrote:we'd have fusion and all sorts of other unlimited power sources...

looks like we still lack of imagination power (brain depletion ?).

But I fully agree with skeptik. Let's hope as PO becomes more visible in the big media that more serious debates will take place: the more it is on the official (or standard or mainstream) public arena, the better and the more perpectives we can see, the more points we might have missed can come up, etc.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 22 Dec 2005, 15:32

Tess wrote:
clv101 wrote:The fisherman pushing for higher quotas? Yeah his fishing today will prevent him and his children fishing on the future, he knows this yet he needs to fish today to pay today?s mortgage and buy his children?s Christmas presents. What do you suggest he does today?
Yeah. People figure they will find something else to do tomorrow. And if they dont think they'll be able to find something else, what else can they do but stick their heads in the sand and pray the forecasts are wrong?

Good point and yes this is the quandary we find ourselves in.

EmptyBee · Post by **EmptyBee** » 22 Dec 2005, 16:11

skeptik wrote:
bigjim wrote:Nice post skeptik. What I meant was will it follow US oil production re timing- ie US peak 40 years after discovery peak, for UK it was 25 years, it varies for all nations.
Even when the data is good the 'experts' often get it wrong. Estimating reserves and future production seems to be as much voodoo as science.

The sudden decline in North Sea oil and gas production after 1999 seems to have caught everybody (did anybody sound the alarm prior to '99? correct me if Im wrong - If they did nobody ilistened to them) on the hop and we are told that North Sea is one of the best documented areas in the world.

Actually I remember Colin Campbell saying that the UK North Sea production was at peak in 1999 when he was given a chance to air his views on The Money Program.

Mexico and China are predicted to peak now or next year. Provided with reliable production and reserve data the Hubbert curve isn't that hard to anticipate. This is why data transparency is so important. Colin Campbell bases his models on an updated (via industry contacts) version of the once highly respected petroconsultants database.
It still amounts to educated guesswork, although the Hubbert model does make assumptions about the impossibility of increasing ultimate oil recovery significantly, taking the position that geological limits trump any economic incentives and technological innovations.

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 22 Dec 2005, 19:00

I managed to grab a light hearted conversation at the gym today, it was with a middle aged guy who worked the Pits and who's pretty keyed up about Government Policies and The Open Market etc.

Well i've known him for years and after hearing him explaining to someone about his version of 9/11 and Iraq, I thought its a good time to jump in. So I asked him if he had watched "Newsnight" last night? Unfortunately he hadn't, but instead of walking away, he was interested to know why i'd asked.

So "blah de blah de blah", I realed off the subject it pointed about Peak Oil. I did act as though this was the first i'd heard of it, I don't know why, I think it's because he's an intelligent bloke and I was just fishing for his honest oppinion. Well he'd heard of "Hubbert's Peak", but he also pointed out to how they've been "sprouting off" about this problem for years and years. He then said there's enough Oil in the ground to last long enough to give us time to bridge to a new energy.

This is was were I started to lower my cards to the table and mentioned about how much Oil is estimated to be in the ground is generally over-estimated, how much we've supposedly used and how the Heavy Tar sands are near net-energy losers. I still managed to keep my "poker-face" because with him not seeing the programme, I made out all this stuff and more was on the programme. With it coming from "Newsnight" I find it gives the evidence more respect.

Anyway to cut along story short, he just claimed it's all Propoganda from Oil Cartel's to justify high Oil prices. Even though I pointed out to the fact our Capitalist system is only fueled by cheap-energy, it wasn't enough to even get him thinking. His advice was not to get too involved in what was discussed, it has happened many times before, usually just before some big finds.

Now this actually sounds sensible. If you think about it, if they have already discovered some massive Oil fields, then pretend Oil is getting tight before Opening the new wells. Hike up the prices for a while, then when they've robbed the public to the point the public's had enough, open up the new wells, flood the market and "Abracadabra" life returns to normality.

Now don't get me wrong I don't buy in to that theory at all. I fully understand and believe we've hit that Peak. How long before we "tip the scales" i'm not sure. But I fully understand how people who've lived through Oil-Shocks before are going to be hard to convert (convert-that's a crap word, I suppose I mean to get the issue through to them.)

Now I know i've stated i'm going to take a more radical approach to raising Peak Oil awareness, I have also decided i'm going to build my radicalness up steadily. First i'm going to re-write my site to be more shocking. Secondly i'm going to try and get a local community of listeners together by giving subtle information, then gradually get more hard hitting. This way I may gain the respect thats needed, so as i'm taken seriously, when I get serious!

I am under no illision here. I know were not going to "die off" within a week of "tipping the scales". Hell I don't even know when we will "tip the scales" all I know is, it will happen. What i'm looking at is trying to prevent the catastrophies of "Sleep-Walking" to 5-10 years in to "The Emergency". I could even be dead myself before we hit any crises, know one knows, this fact won't make we selfish though, I still want to raise the issue. If we have 20 years before "The Shit Hits The Fan" then great, we have 20 years to prepare. If we have 2 years, then shit we need to make an impact ASAP. If we've "tipped the scales" already, then if your the religious type, I suppose you could Pray!!!

Bozzio · Post by **Bozzio** » 22 Dec 2005, 21:00

wayne72 wrote:"We've had it!"
Jeremy Paxon on Newsnight on 21st December 2005.

Jeremy Paxman's phrase here, especially the tone with which he said it, was charateristically brilliant. For Wayne to quote it as his signature made me laugh out loud. It sums the whole situation up

Excellent.

The part I found most interesting was when the economist said that he felt the decline in fossil fuels would be a slow and bearable descent or words to that effect. He even described a long imaginary downwards curve with the motion of his hand. He failed subsequently to point out that without a suitable substitute, one which would need to satisfy an upward curve, that economic growth and the capatalist dream will stall.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 23 Dec 2005, 10:46

Ditto Tess - stomach churning discovery for me last March and boy have my values changed!

My life hasn't really changed that much, but at last I can say I have overcome the mental side of it. I am normally a very strong person, but PO knocked me over!

Now I am slowly preparing for the inevitable decline...... of everything.....I suppose the Newsnight coverage just gave it the final touch of credibility.

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 23 Dec 2005, 14:26

Wayne - the thing to point out about "the boy who cried wolf" is that the wolf did eventually turn up.....

Has anyone captured the video, I missed the programme......

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 23 Dec 2005, 18:23

Bandidoz wrote:Wayne - the thing to point out about "the boy who cried wolf" is that the wolf did eventually turn up.....

Has anyone captured the video, I missed the programme......

Loving that one. I forgot that.

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 23 Dec 2005, 18:46

Eureka!!!

Just thought of the most striking thing about Newsnight. Been tying to find the words, well I think i've got them now.

Did anyone else notice the fact that the "Pessimists" were the calm ones of the show. The "Optimists" were the at times "ranting idiots," jumping in whilst The Pessimists were trying to have their say. Knustler remained calm throughout. The Optimists were throwing their arms about, with raised voices. The Pessimists just talked as normal.

This was a sign of Victory for Peak Oil awareness in my view. Usually its the "Radicals" and "Pessimists" who would rant and use excessive body language.

I'm going point to this fact in my next email to them.

Another subtle point, at the end of discussion, one of the "Optimists" at to stick a quick fast comment, finished with a nervous laugh (which didn't sound too convincing). His comment was "Don't worry though about we are a very, very long way away, at least 30years, thats plenty of time to make a transition" followed by his laugh! (this may not have been his exact words, as I don't have it taped to rewatch, but they were somthing like this.)

Incidently did anyone manage to tape the programme?

Magnus · Post by **Magnus** » 26 Dec 2005, 22:38

Can watch that episode of Newsnight at:

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/

To the optomists on Newsnight who said something like relax the hydrogen economy will save us Joseph Romm gives a very enlightening reply in a seperate interview.

PaulS · Post by **PaulS** » 27 Dec 2005, 12:28

I missed this! Is there a recording somewhere?

...

thanks Magnus, I see it

chubbygristle · Post by **chubbygristle** » 28 Dec 2005, 11:14

If anyone is having a problem getting hold of the real media file of this show, I did manage to capture it before it went off line so send me an email to rob (at) rjfrost.net and I'll send you a link to download it. (Thats if http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/ doesn't keep it online). Cheers.

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 28 Dec 2005, 21:30

I listened to the audio and was disappointed by the quality of the information imparted to the viewer/listener. It wasn't focused enough and I didn't get the feeling that Paxman was on top of the subject himself.

It was also a shame that the PO message was confused with climate change issues; I agree that they should be connected but people new to PO need to understand it alone first.

peaky · Post by **peaky** » 29 Dec 2005, 14:37

Tess wrote:This was exactly my default understanding until I stumbled across LifeAfterTheOilCrash last Christmas while preparing for an oil-related IT job. Until that moment of stomach-churning reality, I had always assumed that there was a century of oil in the ground and that it would always be available in sufficient quantities until one day it stopped dead, by which time of course we'd have fusion and all sorts of other unlimited power sources...

Since I've found your posts and knowledge about the industry to be so impressive and informative, your comment came as a real surprise to me. Is it the case that even within the industry, or at least those dealing with the markets rather than geology, that there is no thought really given to the actual physics of the underlying supply?