PowerSwitch

I have to say, from the layman?s point of view, it is pretty convincing. Carbon is not a toxin it is an essential ingredient of life. The carbon locked into hydrocarbons was once life and therefore it must have been present in the atmosphere in previous times. It is really a mute point anyway. Peak ...

Having a full acceptance of the implications is so difficult given so much uncertainty.

The future optimum energy mix is in this order: 1) Conservation and efficiency 2) Renewables 3) Nuclear The difficulty is getting through the next couple of decades in order to get to this sustainable system. Yup. But this seems to assume that all the responsibility for maintaining the balance betw...

To be fair he does hedge his views with the opening statement; Global peak energy will be delayed only in the event of: The discovery of one or more major new primary energy sources comparable in quantity, quality, and versatility to fossil fuels; Significant breakthroughs in the quantity, quality,...

This study is pretty weak. I like many commentators on TOD, was surprised by the ridiculously low growth assumptions of renewable energy. They are currently growing at 40%+ per year and this guy was using 5%, even post-peak. Also he buys into the peak uranium story, which is non-sense. Uranium is no...

Many thanks for the link.

Yes - a couple of useful contacts but no fund managers as yet.

I don't cover oil stocks but you should find that the oil service companies also have a PE cycle, perhaps coincident with the oil majors. Either way, I don't see the market decoupling these to such an extent that the PEs of one collapse or soar while those of the other remain unaffected. Suss The m...

Blue Peter wrote:But if we're looking at a big recession, won't that cut demand for a while?


Peter.

I doubt it would cut demand signficantly as China and India will still be growing rapidly.

The $800 billion spent by Bush could have been used to build a nuclear/renewable power grid massively reducing consumption of oil. Iraq was about opening up their oil fields to the major oil companies there by increasing their potential to secure additional reserves plus it was good for all his supp...

Iran??

'services' refers to oil service companies like Schulberger so its not really comparing apple and oranges and, as I am sure you are aware, the P/E ratio for oil majors is often far higher at earlier stages of the cycle. Like you say, oil has been a very cyclical market in the pre-peak world.

But what happens if we have a deflationary recession? which I think is more likely at the moment (too many loans have been made causing lots of bubbles; now that will change and "too few" loans will be made, causing a contraction), Peter. That a good point, the money supply could contract...

I want to throw the word 'stagflation' into the mix too.... That is the correct term for the environment the fund seeks to hedge against. If there is a severe recession and deflation, obviously the mix would change but initially the precious metals would do badly. Energy will be inflationary whatev...

They all have individual risks, which is why diversification is important. The majors have large booked reserves that you are buying at a very low level. The share price should do 2 things: 1) To a certain extent, it should track the price of oil (as you are buying ownership of lots of it) 2) The P/...