Where are we on the Limits to Growth model?

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Little John
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Post by Little John »

You haven't answered the question. Do you have any evidence of endemic antisemitism in the Labour party? Yes or no. If you do, what is it?

This is now the second time of asking.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

The fact the equalities commission is formally investigating the Labour party means yes there has been and even Labour have suspended or expelled party members over the matter.

I'm not privy to the dossier currently being reviewed by the commission so can't give you any more detail then that.

That's my last comment on the subject.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Post by emordnilap »

LB, you’re deluded. The UK has done away with left-wing politics.

As for Palestine, your varied reading has helped your delusions. Try reading Robert Fisk or Patrick Cockburn, hardly left wing.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.ianwelsh.net/water-wars-and ... n-die-off/
Consider the Indian subcontinent. It is under three main water threats:

As glaciers go away, glacier fed streams and rivers dry up.
There has been vast depletion of aquifers, and within twenty to thirty years this will reach a crisis that devastates agriculture. There is no water to replace this aquifer water.
Climate change will change wind and rainfall patterns. Much of Indian agriculture is based on the monsoon cycle. If it fails even a few times in a row, agriculture will be devastated.
These items often feed into each other: for example, depleting groundwater is one of the culprits in drying up the Ganges, and if the Ganges goes dry, India dies.

Meanwhile, how do you think Pakistan is going to react, when, as things get worse, they realize that their agriculture, or people, are dying because India has decided to take upstream water they need?

India isn’t the only nation that will be hit hard by all this, but it’s going to be one of the worst. I am almost entirely positive we will see a famine in India which kills literally hundreds of millions of people.

Perhaps it won’t include a war between Pakistan and India; nuclear armed states, over water.

We are now in the triage period of an oncoming catastrophe. A lot of people are going to die, more will be immiserated, and the question now is who, and to a lesser extent how many.

This isn’t to say that nothing can be done to decrease the death count slightly, and to reduce the odds of human extinction, but we are past the point of no return on Climate Change. It will happen, the large stores of methane in permafrost (and probably in the arctic) will be released and climate, including rainfall patterns, will change. Large numbers of rivers and streams will dry up, and sea-levels will rise.

This will not happen on an even schedule of +X every 10 years, when it goes bad, it will go ballistic, and events like ice melts and changes to ocean and wind currents will happen quickly. Some of them may happen like switches flipping. It will go from “sucky� to “catastrophic� fast, with little warning.

So, I know that many people are stuck. No money, no health, no youth and too many obligations.

But be aware of this and plan for it if you can.

And if you live in India or any of the nations around the Indian subcontinent, please be particularly careful as there is even less possibility of India avoiding the worst case scenario than there is for most countries.
This is a really worrying issue.

It could lead to mass migrations of up to 800 million by mid century.

My latest blog references this scenario...

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... ng-future/
“It is not hard to see that these foreseeable catastrophes (glaciers melting within Central Asia) could lead to mass migration and even war on the Eurasian continent this century. The geological effects will start kicking in by in the middle of the century (which is only 30 years away) but the political effects are likely to hit much earlier, as those dramatic changes are being anticipated.�
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

If the rivers from the Himalayas dry up China and most of south east Asia will be hit as well as their big rivers originate there as well. The Ganges drying would lead to salination of its delta, Bangladesh, and less river water could lead to a greater rate of erosion from the sea. Less delta means less food for 800 million people and a high pressure for migration.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Predictions of future precipitation in the Himalayas are all over the place but if it remains about what it is now it wont be a matter of the rivers drying up as much as it will be a flush during the monsoon season and a very low water flow in the dry season. The total yearly flow would remain the same but much might be unusable due to a lack of storage reservoirs. Even if all the glaciers are gone (quite unlikely for the highest of them) there will be snow pack in the mountains similar to what there is in the American sierras and rockies.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

vtsnowedin wrote:....Even if all the glaciers are gone (quite unlikely for the highest of them) there will be snow pack in the mountains similar to what there is in the American sierras and rockies.
The snow pack would be of much less extent and possibly thinner due to a longer period of rainfall before snow set in. The flow in the Ganges would go from extreme flood to a trickle, probably of mainly sewage given what is dumped in the river at the moment.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Hence the need to build more reservoirs where engineeringly feasible.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

vtsnowedin wrote:Hence the need to build more reservoirs where engineeringly feasible.
The Himalayas are a highly active seismic zone and building large numbers of dams could result in catastrophic collapses as the added weight of dam and water disturbs fault lines and water seeping into the faults from dams lubricates the faults. Earthquakes can cause avalanches into the dams which can cause tsunamis which can overtop dams and cause failures.

Dams in that area would be a highly risky strategy and very costly.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

You need to have an ocean to have a tsunamis but other then that I will leave it to the Indian government to decide what is feasible and what is not.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

There was an Italian dam which had a mountainside slide into its lake one night which caused a tsunami which overtopped the dam and killed several thousand people in the town in the valley below the dam.

A dam in Southern China recently suffered an earthquake which researchers have now blamed on the dam itself; either the weight of the water or infiltration from the dam lake into the fault. The damage to the dam meant that the Chinese government had to drain it.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Not every large wave is a Tsunami not that it makes a difference to those in harms way. And yes seismic events endanger dams and the people below them. And yes dams sometimes cause earthquakes. Small ones are common as dams fill for the first time as water saturates rock fractures that were previously well drained.
But your caviler dismissing the possibility of building any dams in the Himalayas based on just your knowledge of conditions there against my proposal that engineers assess feasibility based on facts and investigations puts an arrogant sticker right on you.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

A large wave in a lake may not be a tsunami, but can still result in a dam failure.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

adam2 wrote:A large wave in a lake may not be a tsunami, but can still result in a dam failure.
I just said that.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

A large landslide falling into sea water causes a tsunami just as a large landslide falling into a lake causes a tsunami. The forecast landslide from the Canary Islands volcano that could take out most of the land surrounding the North Atlantic basin is just the same as the landslide into a dam lake and the displacement of the water acts in exactly the same way although it was constrained by the steep valley sides in Italy and so was worse than if it had been a landslide into the open sea. The underlying mechanism of the movement of water is exactly the same in both cases.

What is cavalier about questioning building large numbers of dams in a highly seismic zone? Surely it is prudent to question such an enterprise? I am not arrogant; I am prudently questioning the safety of such an action. Iam surprised by the strength of your reaction, VT.
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