Where are we on the Limits to Growth model?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

raspberry-blower wrote: In short a whole new economic paradigm is required.
Interestingly there is a subtext in the MSM about resource depletion and peak oil (often appearing under peak other things). However, although it is reasonable to argue that economic modelling based upon the assumption of eternal growth in resource usage is not practical I am not sure what you mean by "paradigm".

If you are arguing for politicians to have more control over detailed decisions in the economy (ie more nationalisation), I would disagree.
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Post by emordnilap »

Lord Beria3 wrote:Next decade is going to be fascinating (in a slightly grim way).
Prediction: the next economic 'crisis' is due roughly next year and in 2020 two people/families will own over half the world's wealth.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

John, the current globalised market economy is unsustainable as resources start to become scarce, global trade networks crack up and oil spikes higher and shortages emerge.

Key resources will not be available on the free market, trade disrupted and global supply chains destroyed.

Something will have to change.

I think it will be similar to WW1 or WW2, you had establishment politicians reacting to a wartime crisis and inadvertently bringing in a form of socialism e.g. massive state intervention in the economy to keep things going.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... y-america/
Few people are aware that the German military has also investigated the emerging era of resource scarcity, in particular oil, in a far-reaching report. As the magazine Spiegel notes, the report “…uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the “total collapse of the markets� and of serious political and economic crises.� Whilst the full report, at 112 pages, is a long read, it is worth reading to understand the multitude of challenges facing the industrial world. One can be sure that other similar reports are circulating among military and security policymakers around the world.
This has already being explored by the German military as per my blog article above.

I see no alternative to some kind of post-growth and post-market economy but I don't think it will be the big welfare/70's style social democracy of Corbyn and his merry friends.

It will be a different type of beast.
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raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

johnhemming2 wrote:
If you are arguing for politicians to have more control over detailed decisions in the economy (ie more nationalisation), I would disagree.
That is taking a centralised approach there, John. My own personal view is that it should be more decentralised - although this should be based on cooperation based economy rather than competitive.

I have been researching cryptocurrencies more and more recently as I am interested in how such an economy would pan out. There are plenty of pros and cons in any "solution"
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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Post by emordnilap »

Using energy to extract energy – the dynamics of depletion

Image
We now have to take into account that depletion means that, at well heads around the world, the energy to produce energy is increasing. It takes energy to prospect for oil and gas and if the wells are smaller and more difficult to tap because, for example, they are out at sea under a huge amount of rock. Then it will take more energy to get the oil out in the first place.

So, instead of requiring 10MJ to produce the 100 MJ, let us imagine that it now takes 20 MJ. At the other end of the chain there would thus, only be 10.5MJ – a dramatic reduction in petroleum available to society.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

raspberry-blower wrote:although this should be based on cooperation based economy rather than competitive.
I accept entirely that individual people can make decisions to shop locally and support local businesses even if they charge more. It is also possible to encourage this and that people are more co-operative.

However, I cannot see how you can define a system beyond either the state (locally or nationally) owning businesses or private individuals owning businesses.

Obviously businesses may need subsidy, but that is a separate issue. The danger of state bodies is that the question of subsidy is determined based upon who is involved and how influential they are.

Mutuals be they producer mutuals or consumer mutuals are still private capitalist entities.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Two new articles showing how the climate change crisis is getting worse, which will of course impact the wider limits to growth crisis.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... rophe.html
A world that heats up beyond that threshold will face a crescendo of devastating impacts ranging from deadly heatwaves to mass migration caused by rising seas, the experts warned in a commentary published in the science journal Nature.

With 1.0 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming so far, ice sheets that could lift oceans by a dozen metres are melting more quickly, coral reefs are dying from heat stress, and ever more damaging storm surges are hammering coastal communities.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... ction.html
Current extinction rates are 50 times higher than expected background rates, suggesting that another mass extinction event is underway. If we are going through a mass extinction, this time the cause is not a meteorite impact or volcanic eruptions. It is the work of humans.

Habitat destruction and climate change from rising carbon dioxide levels has driven extinction rates to levels reminiscent of the mass extinctions of the ancient past.

The similarities between today and the past are uncanny. The majority of past extinctions are associated with carbon dioxide from volcanoes causing rapid global warming, which led to a number of environmental cascade effects.

The cause may be different, but the results will be the same.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Much as I welcome such articles being placed in front of non-thinkers, I can't help wondering what the DM's agenda is for doing so. :lol: Still, I'll take it where ever it is.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/109 ... ergy-shock
There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.

Due to a massive reduction in capital spending in the global oil business over 2014-2016 and continuing into 2017, the world will soon find less oil coming out of the ground beginning somewhere between 2018-2020.

Because oil is the lifeblood of today's economy, if there’s less oil to go around, price shocks are inevitable. It's very likely we'll see prices climb back over $100 per barrel. Possibly well over.

The only way to avoid such a supply driven price-shock is if the world economy collapses first, dragging demand downwards.
Agree with this analysis. We are heading towards another economic crisis and oil supply crunch by the end of this decade.

As Andrew Neil on This Week said this week, it will be the mother of all recessions.
Last edited by Lord Beria3 on Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/ ... ming-shock
Executive Summary
The importance of understanding the difference between depleting vs declining
Why the shale "miracle" can't rescue us from this predicament
Why 2019 will be a seminal year
How high will oil prices go when the shock arrives?
Why the next oil shock will force the economy -- and EVERYTHING we depend on -- to diminish
I don't have a subscription to this article but can assume that it will be a body blow to the world economy and we will see declines in various per capita metrics in line with the Limits to Growth business as usual model.

The 2020's could be the beginning of a Greater Recession and will herald transformational changes to geopolitics, economics and so on.
Last edited by Lord Beria3 on Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
johnhemming2
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Post by johnhemming2 »

Lord Beria3 wrote: Agree with this analysis. We are heading towards another economic crisis and oil supply crunch by the end of this decade.
I don't personally think that this is the timescale. Going back to 2007-9 the peak in convention oil was quite early on and then there was stock depletion going on (where burning or other consumption exceeded extraction for a good few months (a couple of years or so).

I haven't tried to do a detailed numerical analysis, but those figures I have looked at don't point to a crisis in this decade. I may, of course, be wrong.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

johnhemming2 wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote: Agree with this analysis. We are heading towards another economic crisis and oil supply crunch by the end of this decade.
I don't personally think that this is the timescale. Going back to 2007-9 the peak in convention oil was quite early on and then there was stock depletion going on (where burning or other consumption exceeded extraction for a good few months (a couple of years or so).

I haven't tried to do a detailed numerical analysis, but those figures I have looked at don't point to a crisis in this decade. I may, of course, be wrong.
So you don't think there will be a supply shock by the end of this decade?
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Lord Beria3 wrote:We are heading towards another economic crisis and oil supply crunch by the end of this decade.

As Andrew Neil on This Week said this week, it will be the mother of all recessions.
Yup. Scheduled for next year. Have fun!
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/109 ... y-degrowth

Excellent article on where we are on the limits to growth story and why de-growth is inevitable.
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