Brexit process

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Little John
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Post by Little John »

So Labour are going to get f***ed in the metropolitan Remain constituencies by the Lib Dems whilst getting simultaneously f***ed in their Labour heartland Leave constituencies by the Brexit party.

Sounds about right.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -dem-surge

Tories clinging on... despite liberal surge.

Apparently polls looking better for the Tories even on Richmond. Even i thought this was a lost cause!

I suspect fear of a labour government is keeping soft Tory voters in these rich enclaves from going to the liberals.
That is just one more example of why this election is so damned hard to call. All sorts of tactical voting going in different places. Some people are voting for or against a Corbyn government, some for or against a tory government, some for or against brexit, and some for or against scottish independence.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:So Labour are going to get f***ed in the metropolitan Remain constituencies by the Lib Dems whilst getting simultaneously f***ed in their Labour heartland Leave constituencies by the Brexit party.

Sounds about right.
Sounds like an oversimplification to me. I still don't believe Labour are in any serious danger from the brexit party anywhere. BXP vote is collapsing nationally. But I do fear for Labour's prospects if their manifesto is pro-immigration. That would be a fatal mistake, and would lead to either a tory majority or a tory-libdem deal.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:So Labour are going to get f***ed in the metropolitan Remain constituencies by the Lib Dems whilst getting simultaneously f***ed in their Labour heartland Leave constituencies by the Brexit party.

Sounds about right.
Sounds like an oversimplification to me. I still don't believe Labour are in any serious danger from the brexit party anywhere. BXP vote is collapsing nationally. But I do fear for Labour's prospects if their manifesto is pro-immigration. That would be a fatal mistake, and would lead to either a tory majority or a tory-libdem deal.
You can't say, on the basis of current polls, whether the sudden reduction in Brexit party support, countrywide, is due to the fact that their support is no longer being included from constituencies that no longer have a Brexit candidate, but where the remaining support from constituencies where they are standing is being erroneously compared to the national polls for other parties. Or, finally, even if support for the Brexit party from constituencies that no longer have a Brexit party candidate is being included, what effect is the removal of those candidates having on Brexit support? In other words, if the Brexit party is not standing a candidate in your constituency and you are asked by a pollster, if you support the Brexit party, you are hardly likely to answer "yes".

In short, the polls are bollocks in general right now and, in particular reference to the Brexit party, are worse than bollocks in that they are highly likely to be significantly misleading.

What would be of interest to see is what the Brexit party support specifically in constituencies where they are fielding candidates is compared to other parties for said constituencies.

Which is, I suspect, why we are seeing no reporting of that in any mainstream news outlet.
Last edited by Little John on Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:
In short, the polls are bollocks in general right now and, in particular reference to the Brexit party, are worse than bollocks in that they are highly likely to be significantly misleading.
All national polls are bollocks. Only constituency-specific polls are likely to be less bollocks, but even those are probably bollocks too. I do not believe the polling companies have either the data or the models required to scale their 1000-2000 samples up to a higher level.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

You gov did one recently UE.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... rbury.html

This article confirms why I don't see a big Tory majority (much as I would like such an outcome!) - this will be a closer election for the reasons factored in Dan article.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... rbury.html

This article confirms why I don't see a big Tory majority (much as I would like such an outcome!) - this will be a closer election for the reasons factored in Dan article.
The key question is how many people will make their decision based on brexit/no-brexit and how many will make their decision based on tory/anti-tory and Corbyn/anti-Corbyn. And nobody knows the answer, which will be different in every constituency.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1196097689701822464

Interesting thread.

Not looking good for labour although I agree a mini surge to labour at the end is likely.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Watching Ch4 - seems like the lib dems are now the fiscally tightest party compared to the Tories or Labour.
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Post by clv101 »

UndercoverElephant wrote:The key question is how many people will make their decision based on brexit/no-brexit and how many will make their decision based on tory/anti-tory and Corbyn/anti-Corbyn. And nobody knows the answer, which will be different in every constituency.
Yes, agree with this. My feeling, without any specific data, is that Brexit is actually slipping down the hierarchy of concerns. This would be to Labour's advantage, but doubt it'll be enough to prevent a reasonable Tory majority.

Labour's best hope for preventing that is a strong performance in the debates.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Yup tonight will be key.

Will be interesting to see how the two leaders perform.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -poll.html

Looks like Jo Swinson is the May of this election.

Lib dem poll ratings are slowly sinking and the more voters see her the less they like her.
as all parties ramp up their campaigning and try to grab the spotlight with eye-catching policies, the Lib Dem leader's popularity has sagged.

A quarter of voters still like her, but half now hold an unfavorable view, implying that those who did not initially know Ms Swinson have been dismayed with what they have now seen of her.

The findings pour cold water over the party's presidential style campaign which has put the leader front and centre - its battle-bus is etched with the words 'Jo Swinson's Lib Dems' alongside her image.
Personally, I find her quite irritating. She has a smug "Heads Girl" attitude which she knows best and the rest of us are thickos.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Farage is also having a disastrous campaign so far.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... NIGHT.html

This poll is only 1, however, it shows the Brexit Party on 2% and the Tories with now a 18% lead.

Corbyn will need to pull of a political miracle to stop a Tory majority in the next 3 weeks.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Watched the debate.

Poor format and no game-changing performance by Corbyn. Boris did alright.

Not sure it will make much, if any, difference.

As the speccie say:
I doubt that debate will have changed many minds. The format made it very bity, with not much interaction between the two leaders. But Jeremy Corbyn, behind in the polls, needed this debate to change the dynamics of the election more than Boris Johnson did and I suspect that the Tories will be the happier of the two sides tonight.
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