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What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?

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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Why would military aircraft, or civilian aircraft importing food, by significantly impacted by space junk preventing use of satellites ?
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

I don't think modern telecommunication systems rely much on satellites. Certainly you can operate a fibre/copper based fixed line network (like BT), and a cellular network (like EE) without satellites. Global communication is pretty much all done with fibre ocean cables. Roundtrip delays associated with satellites are too great and capacity far far too small.

What satellites are used for in communication today is remote sites and time synchronisation. Time synchronisation is only done with satellites as super easy/cheap, perfectly possible to use ground based synchronisation.
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

adam2 wrote:Why would military aircraft, or civilian aircraft importing food, by significantly impacted by space junk preventing use of satellites ?
Er, GPS?
Meanwhile, over the Atlantic, thousands of passengers watched movies, oblivious to the difficulties on the flight deck as pilots struggled to talk to air traffic control. Without satellite phones, container ships in the Arctic, fishermen in the China Sea and aid workers in the Sahara found themselves isolated from the rest of the world.

Story and there are others.

Perhaps more to some peoples liking
Civilian flight navigators (a mostly redundant aircrew position, also called 'air navigator' or 'flight navigator'), were employed on older aircraft, typically between the late-1910s and the 1970s. The crew member, occasionally two navigation crew members for some flights, was responsible for the trip navigation, including its dead reckoning and celestial navigation. This was especially essential when trips were flown over oceans or other large bodies of water, where radio navigation aids were not originally available. (GPS coverage is now provided worldwide). As sophisticated electronic and space-based GPS systems came online, the navigator's position was discontinued and its function was assumed by dual-licensed pilot-navigators, and still later by the flight's primary pilots (Captain and First Officer), resulting in a downsizing in the number of aircrew positions for commercial flights. As the installation of electronic navigation systems into the Captain's and FO's instrument panels was relatively straight forward, the navigator's position in commercial aviation (but not necessarily military aviation) became redundant. (Some countries task their air forces to fly without navigation aids during wartime, thus still requiring a navigator's position). Most civilian air navigators were retired or made redundant by the early 1980s.[2]
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

GPS is a relatively new invention, aircraft crossed the worlds major oceans long before anyone had heard of GPS, and could still do so today if need be.

Long distance navigation would be by means of radio beacons, and dead reckoning, with astronomical observations another possibility.

Satellite telephones are most useful in places without a cellphone signal or land line network and prompt use of a satellite phone has no doubt saved lives in cases of accident or sudden illness in remote locations.
Visiting remote places would get a little more risky, but remember that people have visited remote locations without satellite telephones and that most of them either survived or succumbed to mishaps in which modern communications would not have helped.

I used to have an Inmarsat phone when I lived in London, most reassuring to have in case of emergency, but I doubt that I used it "in anger" more than a few dozen times in total, over several years.
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Post by woodburner »

All those things were done, and could be done again, but the short term disruption will be significant. Many of us can work out the answers to mathematical problems using manual means and possibly from first principles. There are many people who cannot do arithmetic unless they have a calculator. People will be able to get around in London using taxis drivin by real cabbies. Uber drivers will be stuffed.
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Post by RenewableCandy »

I've kept my slide-rule :D

And my son recently (re)discovered my ancient Russian 35mm camera, which is now on its way to Russia for repairs.
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Post by emordnilap »

woodburner wrote:There are many people who cannot do arithmetic unless they have a calculator.
The ability to visualise the components of an arithmetical problem in the head is one of the truly awesome aspects of being human.
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Post by Mr. Fox »

I had a Maths teacher at school who was fond of saying "You need to learn how to do this - you won't always have a calculator in your pocket..!"

Sometimes I hope I meet him again so I can point out that not only have I had a 'calculator in my pocket' for the last 20 years, but now it's even got 1000+ hours of music and HD video, a decent map of the whole of Europe, GPS with <10M accuracy and functions as a Startrek Communicator to boot, plus a host of other features.

When it all goes to hell in a handbasket, at least I can take comfort in the certain knowledge that the square on the hypotenuse is, and always will be, equal to the sum of the squares on the other two sides.

*sigh* :(
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Over at TAE a very interesting essay by Alastair Crooke has been posted:

Alastair Crooke: Coming Apart: The Imperial City At The Brink
Alastair Crooke wrote: Mike Vlahos (Professor at the US Naval War college and John Hopkins) tells us that, as a military historian and global strategist, he became curious to know just why it is that ‘world systems’ do ‘come apart’. His first, intuitive sense was that their collapse generally was brought about by some massive external force such as war, pestilence or famine, and by the concomitant mass migrations of peoples.

But when he and his students completed their research, he concluded that though these factors had often played an important part, they were not the prime cause of the system coming apart. Rather, he identified a number of key triggers:

· The élites became stratified, and politics frozen
· The peoples’ allegiance became taken for granted, at the same time that the élites chose to ignore threats to the peoples’ way of life
· Social mobility declined, and change is fiercely resisted
· Rather, élites work to maximize their wealth and status.
· Elite authority becomes excessively militarized – and justified as ‘saving civilization’
Sound familiar anyone?
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Post by Little John »

It sounds exactly like Spengler's model of civilisations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsaieZt5vjk
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

It also sounds like the crests just before the waves broke.
1350, 1650, 1815.

https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/ ... edir_esc=y
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