New forecasts synthesis from Jean Laherrère

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Yves75
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New forecasts synthesis from Jean Laherrère

Post by Yves75 »

Below a new synthesis from Jean Laherrère (oil and natural gas forecasts ) :

http://tribune-pic-petrolier.org/wp-con ... ai2013.pdf


Key graphs :

Reserves :
Image


All liquids :
Image

All liquids Opec NOpec breakdown
Image

Natural gas :
Image
Yves75
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Post by Yves75 »

And one should probably add the price curve for the global picture :

Image

Note : One can notice above the usual "legend" :

First oil shock = Yom Kippur/Arab embargo = geopolitical story = nothing to do with geologic constraints.

When the first oil shock was much more a direct consequence of US 1970 production peak, and rebalance of barrel revenus between majors and producing countries at the time.

Or in other words, the rise of the barrel price was a win win situation at the time, and wished for by majors and US/western diplomacy, summary below for instance :
http://patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.fr/20 ... 3773638550
Yves75
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Post by Yves75 »

Two new docs from Laherrère (in French, but graphics quite self explanatory and labels in English) :

http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/Sophia2013.pdf

http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/files/Nice2013long.pdf

First one especially is a global synthesis with also his forecasts for coal.

These numbers (and the amazing current discrepancy with the "official ones" and "public perception") really quite scary ...
Little John
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Post by Little John »

Thanks for this info Yves75. Will take a look at this data.
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Peakists have always said that even tripling the world oil reserve would only put the peak back by 20 to 30 years. This is nothing in terms of the timescale it takes for the human mind to accept that something has to be done. TPTB have ignored all entreaties over peak oil to date and they are now feeling justified because we have "tight oil and gas to last a century." When we will be coming up to the new peak in 20 years time they will be equally blase about it but it will be too late by then.

Mind you the cost of all this new oil might not be something that the world economy can work with so we might not have to worry about a peak further down the road. The road might have collapsed before then.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Yves75
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Post by Yves75 »

Some key graphs from the "sophia2013" doc above :

All liquids previsions 2007 and 2013 :

Image

Coal previsions 2007 and 2013 :

Image

Coal China :

Image
Note that the IEA (WEO 2013) forecasts China future coal prediction below the "possible", and probably the only thing they put below the possible ...)

US natural gas :

Image

US shale gas :

Image

North America conventional gas :

Image

Europe gas :

Image

Russian gas :

Image

All fossils 2007 and 2013 :

Image

All fossils according to the IEA (WEO2013) :

Image

All fossils per capita :

Image

All fossils US and GDP :

Image

France and energy bill :

Image
Last edited by Yves75 on Tue Dec 03, 2013 8:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

Hi Yves75, I don't know if it is easy to do, but it would help me a lot if you could reduce the size of the graphs a little as their current size is making it such that I have to scroll sideways as well as downwards to read posts on the thread.
Yves75
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Post by Yves75 »

Ok, will try to reduce them a bit
Little John
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Post by Little John »

Yves75 wrote:Ok, will try to reduce them a bit
Cheers mate.
Yves75
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Post by Yves75 »

Something strange happening with wordpress.com now apparently (where the images are), but they should get to 800 max wide soon.
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

All looking good now, Yves.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Little John
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Post by Little John »

The bottom lot of graphs are still too big.
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