Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[kenneal - lagger]

This debacle just shows how ridiculously fragile and intertwined our civilisation is when a hike in gas prices, not even a shortage yet, can cascade down the food production system causing a shortage or fertilizer which will hit grain and other food production next year, a shortage of CO2 for food production which in turn is meaning that thousands of animals can't be slaughtered leading to probable bankruptcies in farming and shortages of meat and meat products later on.

People should take a lesson from this. I will be pointing out to my MP that this problem is one caused directly by the short sightedness of economist advising the government. If those economists hadn't advised the government that a strategic store of gas was unnecessary "because we can always buy gas on the open market" we could have been dipping into that store now so that gas prices would not have risen to the degree that they have.

A similar argument can be levelled at the idea that we can always buy food on world markets and don't have to bother about being self sufficient in food production. The idea that we can carry on increasing our population ad infinitum as espoused by those same government economists is shown to be crazy because there are grave doubts about that ability to purchase goods at the right price on the world market. This is another free market failure, probably manipulated by Russia and China, although it might just be another failure of the economists' much over rated free market.

Markets which have a production and supply time of a year, as is the case with most types of farming, cannot respond to price signals immediately so hunger could result very quickly unless people have their own stores of food and there is a system to immediately limit purchases in place, rationing, to ensure that all people get enough not just the rich who can keep purchasing on the black market.

The end times are upon us. It is perhaps not the end of the beginning but ................ to paraphrase that former Prime Minister.

[BritDownUnder]

To me it seems the UK has put a lot of its decisions in the hands of others such as the UN (for climate change policy) and EU (for energy policy) and put its trust in an energy market that is very short termist and is incapable of long term investment.

Sky News is saying it is costing 'tens of millions' to get the CO2 back flowing.

The Environment Minister was asked why he did not see this coming. I can honestly say that I saw this coming 30 years ago and it was one of the factors in my deciding to leave the country.

[adam2]

Concerns have slightly reduced as the wind has increased markedly.
Also the new interconnector from Norway has been tested and is expected to commence regular operation shortly.

As with other interconnectors, I would hope the flow would be two way, and not just for imports. We will need a lot more wind turbines if we are to export wind power to Norway at times of high wind.

This interconnector is only 1 GW or about 2% of UK peak demand. If it proves a success, then additional links are likely.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would have thought that Norway has a lot more opportunities for pumped storage than the UK does so the interconnector and some investment there might be a good thing as we increase out wind generation capacity. Mind you the pumped storage might not been required if they have enough precipitation to keep a constant hydro capacity flowing.

[BritDownUnder]

I don't think the UK should rely too much on Norway as they have interconnections to a lot of other countries including Finland, Sweden, Russia, Denmark, Germany and The Netherlands and who may be able to outbid the UK in a time of crisis. Of course the canny Norwegians might also buy cheap excess German wind and solar generated electricity and export it straight to the UK for more money. Who knows, the UK may even export some excess wind power and it might even end up in Russia.

[adam2]

Here is my personal REASONABLY PESSIMISTIC forecast of peak electricity availability and demand for the coming winter.
Supply
CCGT-------------------------------------------25, it has previously regularly reached this figure. I expect that gas will remain very expensive, but available.
Wind---------------------------------------------2, will probably be a lot higher, but 2 is all that can be counted on with reasonable reliability.
Nuclear------------------------------------------4, less than in previous years due to likelihood of breakdowns, or permanent shutdowns.
Hydro and pumped storage-------------------2, cant be sustained but helps a lot for the high peak.
OCGT/diesel------------------------------------0.5, as previously.
Biomass-------------------------------------------2.0, regularly achieved.
Coal------------------------------------------------2.0, less than previously due to ongoing closures.
Interconnectors---------------------------------3, might well be more, but allowing for breakdowns. Dont yet trust the Norwegian link.
Battery storage----------------------------------0.5, Cant find reliable data so this is a bit of a guess. only useful for the high peak.

Total about 41, a significant shortfall against a worst case winter peak hour demand of 48. Whilst I believe that my assumptions are reasonable WORST CASE estimates if considered individually, we would be exceedingly unlucky if ALL the worst case forecasts came to pass and at the same time.

I will repeat this exercise but making reasonably optimistic forecasts.

[adam2]

Here is my personal REASONABLY OPTIMISTIC forecast for peak demand and available generating capacity for the coming winter.

Supply
CCGT----------------------------------------------------------27 Has previously reached that much.
Wind------------------------------------------------------------4, will probably be a lot higher but only 4 can be Fairly reliably counted on.
Nuclear---------------------------------------------------------6, less than previously as one station has closed, and doubts exist abut others.
Hydro/pumped------------------------------------------------2.5 as previously reached in the high peak.
OCGT/diesel---------------------------------------------------0.5, as previously.
Biomass---------------------------------------------------------3.0, has previously been attained.
Coal--------------------------------------------------------------2.5, less than previously due to closures.
Interconnectors-------------------------------------------------5, assumes good but not perfect availability.
Battery storage--------------------------------------------------0.5 a new factor, my estimate, for the high peak.

A total of 51, an acceptable margin over an optimist maximum demand 0f 47.

Whilst I believe that each of my estimates is reasonable if considered on it own, it might be unduly optmistic to assume that EVERY type of generation will do well.

[adam2]

The new UK/Norway interconnector is now in regular use. Seems to be restricted to about two thirds power at present.

I do not YET trust this as a reliable source of supply. Such a long cable has a greater chance of random faults than does a shorter cable, and those shorter cables are not that reliable. I also perceive some risk of latent defects in the new converting plant at each end.

[adam2]

Coal is again being burnt to produce about 2.5% of UK electricity.
Regrettable due to the carbon emissions but perhaps justified for a short term emergency.
Wind power is a still useful 6 GW, but less than achieved for much of the last week or so.

[clv101]

...to produce about 2.5% of UK electricity.
Regrettable due to the carbon emissions but perhaps justified for a short term emergency....

An emergency yes, but I'm certain there is more than 2.5% of totally frivolous, unneeded, simply wasted, electricity use currently.

There's a lot more we can and should be doing on demand.

[Potemkin Villager]

The new UK/Norway interconnector is now in regular use. Seems to be restricted to about two thirds power at present.

I do not YET trust this as a reliable source of supply. Such a long cable has a greater chance of random faults than does a shorter cable, and those shorter cables are not that reliable. I also perceive some risk of latent defects in the new converting plant at each end.

and apparently

"Just days after the world’s longest under-sea power cable began transferring hydroelectric energy from Norway to the UK, there are now concerns the Norwegians won’t have enough for themselves, as an energy crisis hits Northern Europe, due to lack of water.

Nordic countries currently face worsening energy security as reservoirs providing the water for hydroelectric power generation are running dry.

As a result, energy prices are soaring. Nordic power prices were five times higher in September this year than they were a year ago, according to Bloomberg."

[adam2]

More UK wind turbines needed URGENTLY in order that we may have a surplus of wind power to export to Norway in windy weather, only importing from Norway in calm weather and at night.
Every GWH of UK wind power exported to Norway is more water in that nations hydroelectric dams for later export of electricity to us.

[adam2]

With natural gas prices at new records, I suspect that it is now cheaper to generate electricity from diesel engines than from natural gas.
Oil has also increased in price in price, but to a much lesser extent than natural gas.

I estimate that electricity from natural gas is costing about 20 pence to 30 pence a unit.

With red diesel fuel available at about 75 pence a liter in bulk, electricity therefrom would be about 15 pence a unit. By means of either diesel engines or running existing CCGT plant on light oil.

Both prices are for FUEL ONLY and not taking account of taxes, depreciation, wages, insurance, and all the other costs of dong business.
Also both prices are at the power station gate, taking no account of the costs and losses in transmission and distribution to the end user.

There would seem to be a short term economic case for running existing CCGT plant on oil where possible.
Several problems in doing this on a large scale.
1) Not all units are designed to burn oil routinely, possible warranty issues for prolonged operation on oil.
2) Planning permission granted when the plant was built may prohibit regular oil burning.
3) How to get the oil to the power stations. There is already a shortage of tanker drivers. Several tankers an hour needed for a large power station, often along minor roads.

[Potemkin Villager]

From the horse's mouth.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/electri ... city-stats

4485 GWh imported vs 146 GWh exported in september.

A long, long way from nett zero which suggests there is a major problem.

[adam2]

From the horse's mouth.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/electri ... city-stats

4485 GWh imported vs 146 GWh exported in september.

A long, long way from nett zero which suggests there is a major problem.

Agree, that amount of reliance on imports is shocking. We exported about 3% of the amount that we imported. Interconnectors give valuable flexibility but should in my view be used to export electricity on a similar scale to that imported.
We should be aiming for net zero carbon AND for net zero electricity imports.

Contrary to be the accepted view, I believe that the majority of our electricity imports are from the burning of fossil fuels. Although Europe has significant nuclear and renewable generating capacity, they also burn fossil fuels, and it would be reasonable to assume that almost 100% of the marginal capacity is from fossil fuel plant. So each GW exported to us is almost entirely fossil fuel produced.