Where are we on the Limits to Growth model?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

kenneal - lagger wrote:A large landslide falling into sea water causes a tsunami just as a large landslide falling into a lake causes a tsunami. The forecast landslide from the Canary Islands volcano that could take out most of the land surrounding the North Atlantic basin is just the same as the landslide into a dam lake and the displacement of the water acts in exactly the same way although it was constrained by the steep valley sides in Italy and so was worse than if it had been a landslide into the open sea. The underlying mechanism of the movement of water is exactly the same in both cases.

What is cavalier about questioning building large numbers of dams in a highly seismic zone? Surely it is prudent to question such an enterprise? I am not arrogant; I am prudently questioning the safety of such an action. Iam surprised by the strength of your reaction, VT.
You dismissed it as not worth considering. A very knowitall attitude or voice on your part and not something I hope you would say in a face to face conversation with another adult.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Having watched a program in the last few days on the TV, VT, about earthquakes in China and seen the damage done to a dam built in a fault zone there I would certainly have questioned your assertion that more dams should be built in this area if we were having the conversation face to face. I appreciate that seeing a TV program on something doesn't make me an expert but I am probably as much an expert on the subject as you are so we could have a conversation as equals.
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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Are you missing the detail that I did not assert that they should be built but said they should consider building them if engineeringly feasible?
What would you have the Indian government do about impending water shortages? Throw up their hands and wait for millions to starve? Have three hundred million pull up stakes and move to the UK?
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

I would think that they would be better off rolling out a mass family planning operation very quickly to reduce their burgeoning population. They are also facing a loss of ground water in the Punjab grain growing area as well levels are dropping rapidly and the water is becoming salty due to over extraction. The site of any dam building would have to be very carefully assessed or they will be killing more people than they water.
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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Perhaps an alternative (to be given careful consideration) would be to inject river water during high flow periods into the deep wells that have been over pumped recharging the aquifers. Less expensive then initial dam construction but requiring available energy for pumping. Just filing a 400 foot borehole to the top would put 175 psi on the bottom of the hole.
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Prey controls predators: as food quantities decline, so will population.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

There were thoughts of doing that in the UK in the past but I think that there were worries about the amount of sediment being pumped into our chalk aquifers. Himalayan water would certainly have that problem and also sewage contamination once it got past the first few towns.

Perhaps they wouldn't worry about technicalities like that, though.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

kenneal - lagger wrote:There were thoughts of doing that in the UK in the past but I think that there were worries about the amount of sediment being pumped into our chalk aquifers. Himalayan water would certainly have that problem and also sewage contamination once it got past the first few towns.

Perhaps they wouldn't worry about technicalities like that, though.
Well something to consider of course but on first thought I would think the plains that hold the aquifers are probably made up of sediments deposited by rivers flowing down from the Himalayas so sediments might well just match the existing ground. As to bacteria I doubt any could live long at depth either for lack of oxygen for that type and and organic matter for the anaerobic bacteria type. They would want to catch and store water before it got contaminated by any chemicals that would persist underground. If it was good enough to use for irrigation when it went down the bore hole I expect it would still be when it came back out.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Aquifers aren't sediments they are the porous rocks that underlie sediments; typically limestone, chalk and porous sandstone. Any sediments introduced will block the pours in the rocks around the borehole and stop water entering and exiting the storage rock.

The aquifer water is also used for drinking so the introduction of bacteria would mean that the water would have to be treated before being drunk; a cost which would be huge in a sprawling country like India.

There could also be a limit to the amount of water which could be stored as the Indus is in Pakistan and many of the rivers in the Punjab are feeders for the Indus. International treaties govern the amount of water which an upstream country can take from a river system. Mexico has problems over the the amount of water that the US takes from the Colorado.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

kenneal - lagger wrote:Aquifers aren't sediments they are the porous rocks that underlie sediments; typically limestone, chalk and porous sandstone. Any sediments introduced will block the pours in the rocks around the borehole and stop water entering and exiting the storage rock.

The aquifer water is also used for drinking so the introduction of bacteria would mean that the water would have to be treated before being drunk; a cost which would be huge in a sprawling country like India.

There could also be a limit to the amount of water which could be stored as the Indus is in Pakistan and many of the rivers in the Punjab are feeders for the Indus. International treaties govern the amount of water which an upstream country can take from a river system. Mexico has problems over the the amount of water that the US takes from the Colorado.
I think you are out to lunch on a lot of this. First many aquifers are layers of sand and silt over an impervious bedrock charged by water sources of a higher elevation and connected by permeable layers of sand silt or fractured rock. That is why over pumping in California has caused land subsidence. If the water was only held in porous rocks those rocks would not shrink in size when the water was removed.
Second bacteria introduced to the aquifer is only a problem if it can survive being underground without access to organic matter to feed on. In any event it would be no more harmful coming out then it was going in and is certainly more useful then a dry well.
And as far as the flow rights are concerned I was talking about capturing high flow (flood waters if you insist) that have already left the source country and are on their way to the sea unused. Capture them in the monsoon season and recharge your wells and aquifers so that those wells don't run dry in the dry season. No harm at all to the country of origin and perhaps a considerable benefit to any other country down stream having the rivers flow moderated and extended into the dry season.
As to pumped water plugging pores in in a bore hole I suppose that might be possible if you pumped very silt laden water into a bore hole but it would depend on the gradation and structure of the water bearing strata. A little experimentation and research might clear that up.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

The Punjabi aquifer is a deep aquifer like the Ogalala aquifer in the US as far as I know but I don't know what the rock type is.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

Give this a read.
3.0 GEOMORPHOLOGY & SOIL TYPE The district area is occupied by Indo-Gangeticalluvium. And there are no surface features worth to mention except that area is plain and major drains are Satluj and its tributaries and Budha nala. Soil is the end product of the parent material resulting from the consistent influence of climate, topography and the natural vegetation over a long period of time. In the district soil characteristics are influenced to a very limited extent by the topography, vegetation and parent rock. The variations in soil profile characteristics are much more pronounced because of the regional climatic differences. The soil of this zone has developed under semi-arid condition. The soil is sandy loam to clayey with normal reaction (pH from 7.8 to 8.5). 4.0 GROUND WATER SCENARIO 4.1HydrogeologyThe district area is occupied by Indo-Gangatic alluvium of Quaternary age. The subsurface geological formations of the area comprise of sand, silt, clay and kankar in various proportions. In general the Ground water of the district is fresh except in and around Ludhiana city where the ground water is polluted due to industrial effluents. Theaquifer disposition of the area is revealed by drilling data carried out down to 408 m by Central Ground Water Board and state govt. The lithological data of these boreholes indicate the presence of many sand beds forming the principal aquifers separated by clay beds at various depths. The data indicatespresence ofabout 5 prominent sand horizons down to 400 m depth separated bythick clay horizons. The first aquifer generally occurs between 10 and 30m. The second is between 50 and 120m. Third between 150-175m. For the forth between 200-250m and the fifth between 300-400m. The aquifers are giving discharge from 3-52 lps with 4.3X10-4 -6.98X10-4storativity and transvity is ranges between 628-1120 m2/day. The sand content in the aquifer in the district varies from 50 to 80%. Clay beds though thick at places occur mostly as lens and pinches out laterally. The granular material becomes coarser with depth. The aquifer at deeper levels acts as semi-confined to con fined. The depth to water level in the area rangesbetween 9-26 m bgl. In the north easternpart’ Machhiwara’ block area it ranges between 5-10 m bgl and 10-20 m in north central part of the district in Ludhiana city aqnd Bhaini raian . In rest of the area of the district it ranges between 20-30 meters. During the pre monsoon period depth to water level varies between4.32to 31.22m bgl and in post monsoon it ranges between 2.89-27.30m bgl. The long term water trend indicatesthat the water level showing decline ranges from 0.11 m /y
http://cgwb.gov.in/district_profile/punjab/ludhiana.pdf
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Can't argue with that. I had heard that the water levels were dropping drastically through over pumping and that the aquifer was salinating. Is there a date on that information, VT?
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Ugo Bardi on the comparisons between the fall of the Roman Empire and where we are today using Dmitry Orlov's 5 Stages of Collapse as a yardstick

The Empire of Lies: How we are collapsing the same way the Roman Empire did
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

kenneal - lagger wrote:Can't argue with that. I had heard that the water levels were dropping drastically through over pumping and that the aquifer was salinating. Is there a date on that information, VT?
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