Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[adam2]

A neighbour has just found out that they are in load group "N" and have asked me for advice on how to upgrade to a better load group !

Oh dear.

They seem to think that being in load group A or B would imply better social status and/or higher property prices.
They feel aggrieved that no one warned them when purchasing the property that it was assigned to such a lowly load group.

[vtsnowedin]

Most UK coal burning power plant burn pulverised coal, this is blown into the furnace by compressed air and burns almost instantly.

It is a relatively simple matter to blow a larger volume of wood chips into the furnace instead of coal.
Steam is raised in the same way and the steam turbine and alternator will have the same output, these components do not "know" what fuel was burnt to produce the steam.

Oil is burnt during initial lighting up, until a stable flame pattern from the coal or wood chip fuel results. No oil is used in normal operation, only for starting.

I gave up on this when you posed it as you were not really considering my point. Point being that a cubic meter of coal (anthracite) contains 31 MBTU of energy vs. a cubic meter of dry hardwood only 4.22MBTU. To convert to wood you have to move store and process eight times the material volume to realize the same amount of heat production. It is not just changing a nozzle size or increasing a conveyor speed. It is a complete redesign of everything from the receiving/ storage yard, through the conveyors and on to the ash heap.

[adam2]

Yes, the fuel handling systems would have to be modified to handle the extra bulk of wood versus coal.
AFAIK the boiler, steam turbine, and alternator are original and produce the original output.
The wood chips are delivered by train, often one large freight train every day.
After unloading the wood chips are moved through large pipes by air blowers.
Only a few days worth of wood fuel is held, so this system is vulnerable to interruptions.

[adam2]

A neighbour has just found out that they are in load group "N" and have asked me for advice on how to upgrade to a better load group !

Oh dear.

They seem to think that being in load group A or B would imply better social status and/or higher property prices.
They feel aggrieved that no one warned them when purchasing the property that it was assigned to such a lowly load group.

Western power distribution have declined my neighbours request for an upgrade to a "better" load group.
Oh the terrible indignity.

[BritDownUnder]

A neighbour has just found out that they are in load group "N" and have asked me for advice on how to upgrade to a better load group !

Oh dear.

They seem to think that being in load group A or B would imply better social status and/or higher property prices.
They feel aggrieved that no one warned them when purchasing the property that it was assigned to such a lowly load group.

Western power distribution have declined my neighbours request for an upgrade to a "better" load group.
Oh the terrible indignity.

Perhaps he should upgrade himself to a better load group by getting in solar PV and hot water, a battery, a wind turbine and better insulation on his property. Even a diesel generator.

I think a strongly worded letter to "The Times" editor, his local MP and anyone else who will listen is also in order. During my father's early retirement days he learned the art of computer word processing and printing and proceeded to send a letter about dog dirt nearly every week to the local council.

[adam2]

The early part of this winter has been generally mild, and often with plenty of wind.
There have therefore been no significant concerns regarding adequate generating capacity.

That may be about to change, the next two weeks are expected to be colder than average.
Nothing extreme or exceptional is expected, but a bit colder than average and for a couple of weeks.

I doubt that the lights will go out but the risk is clearly greater at times of cold weather and consequent increased load.

If everything works we should be fine, but a series of breakdowns at old coal burning plants if coinciding with interconnector faults could be interesting.

The other big unknown is the maximum demand, 50GW would probably be OK, but 51GW might not be.
Will demand continue to fall as energy efficiency improves ? Or will the increased number of households increase demand ?

[fuzzy]

Did you ever resolve the drop in LNG supplies that you posted about a few days back - I have been busy this week.

[adam2]

Did you ever resolve the drop in LNG supplies that you posted about a few days back - I have been busy this week.

Almost certainly dodgy data.
The indicated LNG stock level declined to a most improbable extent one day and very largely "recovered" the next day.
AFAIK, the storage can not be emptied nor refilled as rapidly as the indicated figures suggested.
Further, there was no apparent reason to call for such rapid filling and emptying.

Both the "Gridwatch" site for electricity supply data, and "prevailing view" for gas data are most interesting but one should avoid jumping to alarming conclusions before applying the common sense test.

[fuzzy]

Perhaps they count shipments en route and payed for, as 'in storage'. The ship is just another LNG tank. If the cargo is resold then..

[vtsnowedin]

It might also be that someone took a vacation and not all the tasks they normally do got covered properly. You don't really know how well new people have absorbed training until you leave them to accomplish a task un supervised.

[fuzzy]

I can't believe that in the IT age, we aren't saving huge amounts of printed paper and operating robust management solutions - say it isn't so..?

[RenewableCandy]

The Venerable Beeb report that energy efficiency has had a greater impact on elecricity demand than renewables have:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46741346

The new analysis of government figures comes from the environmental analysis website Carbon Brief.

Its author says EU product standards on light bulbs, fridges, vacuum cleaners and other appliances have played a substantial part in reducing energy demand.

Provisional calculations show that electricity generation in the UK peaked around 2005. But generation per person is now back down to the level of 1984 (around 5 megawatt hours per capita).

Of course, they neglect to say that efficiency gains will taper off, whereas renewables can (at least in theory) keep on growing. They also mention EU standards...

[adam2]

The reduction in electricity demand is generally welcome, but as suggested above, may not continue.

Energy used for lighting has declined significantly due to greater lamp efficiency.
To produce 800 lumens of light takes about
75 watts with a single coil tungsten lamp. (1950)
60 watts with a coiled coil tungsten lamp. (1970)
12 watts with a CFL. (1990)
8 watts with a basic LED lamp (2000)
4 watts with the very best available LED lamp. (2020?)

Such gains wont continue, no lamp can exceed 100% efficiency which is about 300 to 350 lumens per watt.

Other improvements have been achieved by use of switched mode power supplies, electronic lamp ballasts, more efficient electric motors, and a shift towards lower energy refrigeration.

Further progress is possible, but is unlikely to be rapid.

Some claimed gains may be largely illusory as with vacuum cleaners, space heaters and the like.

Peak indicated demand last winter was about 50.4 GW IIRC and I expect broadly similar figures in future years as increased efficiency standards are roughly offset by more households, a move towards electric heating, and more electric vehicles.

[vtsnowedin]

Is not a large part in the reduction in electrical consumption due to a decline in manufacturing in the UK? The electricity not used in the UK is instead used in a factory in China or Indonesia and is probably generated via coal.
If you were to have a revival in UK manufacturing it would undoubtedly be done with a high percentage of robots and other automation all run by electricity or hydraulic pressure generated by electric pumps. The only savings would be from the robots not needing well lighted areas to work in.

[adam2]

Yes, some of the reduction is indeed due to exporting manufacturing jobs and the related energy use.