Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

Post by **clv101** » 13 Jan 2018, 22:46

Just type it like this:

&#91;url=http&#58;//www.example.com&#93;Name of Page&#91;/url&#93;

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 14 Jan 2018, 16:33

clv101 wrote:Just type it like this:
Code: Select all
&#91;url=http&#58;//www.example.com&#93;Name of Page&#91;/url&#93;

Now I've learned something as well. Thanks, Chris.

But you often have to leave the http:// off the URL.

Post by **adam2** » 04 Feb 2018, 12:04

Eggborough power station is to close before next winter.
Good news for the environment, but slightly concerning as regards UK energy security.
This closure wont affect available capacity for the rest of this winter, but is a potential concern for next winter.

I wonder what if any alternative capacity will be built.

The lost capacity is IIRC, about 2,000MW or about 4% of peak demand.

Our now very limited coal burning capacity has been regularly utilised, so unless peak demand is really going to drop by several percent in just one year, something else will be needed.

Post by **adam2** » 05 Feb 2018, 18:56

CCGT at 26.9 tonight which I suspect to be a new record.

It is I suppose reassuring that we have that much capacity.
OCGT also running, about 0.3. Demand is high at 48.8 but not exceptional, only a limited contribution from wind at 2.4, nuclear doing well at 7.4

Another night with an apparently small margin but during which the lights did not go out.

We could probably have coped with the loss of a couple of nukes, OR with the failure of half of the French interconnector, OR with a drop in wind to 1.0.
Had two of the above occurred it would have been interesting, and all three even more interesting.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 06 Feb 2018, 11:48

Supposed to be very cold over the whole country tonight with low wind speeds so we'll see what happens then.

I'd better check the oil in my genny, I wouldn't want to have a power cut when the nation is OK. Wouldn't want a power cut at all really!

Post by **adam2** » 27 Feb 2018, 14:52

I expect electricity demand to be very high tonight and tomorrow night due to the cold, probably just over 50.
An actual shortage seems unlikely, unless SEVERAL things go wrong at the same time.
Wind is making a reasonable contribution at about 4
PV helps in daylight at about 3 but wont much help for the evening peak
Nuclear is doing reasonably at about 7
Coal is over 11, most unusual these days.
CCGT at about 20, low considering the weather. Another 5 should be available from gas if needed, but coal is being burnt in preference due to the high gas price.
We are exporting electricity to France which is somewhat unusual.

All figures in GW indicated on Gridwatch, other sources of data may differ.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 27 Feb 2018, 21:01

adam2 wrote: We are exporting electricity to France which is somewhat unusual.

Probably very cold in France too - I hope they pay well for the power. Looks like all coal stations are on full power, the way it should be and keeping gas in reserve. Looked to be a fairly decent solar day too for winter. Wind seems to be holding at 5GW for now.

A slight change of subject but on the Fully Charged youtube channel there is an episode on a Scottish based maker of large megawatt scale heat pumps. Apparently they have sold one to Norway. I think the 'heat' is normally sourced from a river rather than air and the hot water produced is 90C and can be used in district heating/chilling schemes. I may put a post on the Geothermal section with a link when I am less busy.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 27 Feb 2018, 22:47

adam2 wrote: PV helps in daylight at about 3

Had to lean out of the Velux this afternoon and knock the snow off ours

!

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Feb 2018, 01:44

RenewableCandy wrote:
adam2 wrote: PV helps in daylight at about 3
Had to lean out of the Velux this afternoon and knock the snow off ours !

OK RC enlighten me, What to hell is a Velux? my best guess is a gable window but what do I know?

Post by **adam2** » 28 Feb 2018, 02:55

"Velux" is a trade name for a popular brand of window that is intended for fitting into a pitched roof.
Commonly fitted to loft or attic areas when these are used for living space.

The term is often misused to refer to that style of window even if not made by Velux, other brands exist.

Not to be confused with "Vellux" which is a brand of blanket, made of nasty synthetic materials, easy to wash and durable, popular in hotels.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 28 Feb 2018, 14:20

vtsnowedin wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:
adam2 wrote: PV helps in daylight at about 3
Had to lean out of the Velux this afternoon and knock the snow off ours !
OK RC enlighten me, What to hell is a Velux? my best guess is a gable window but what do I know?

Until recently Velux held a patent for this design of window but since its lapse quite a few imitations have sprung up including Fakro. Like a hoover the original name has stuck for the type.

Post by **adam2** » 01 Mar 2018, 21:05

For much of today, some OCGT plant has been running, which on first sight seems most surprising under present circumstances.
OCGT consumes a lot of fuel and is normally considered to be a "last resort" used only when more efficient CCGT plant is fully committed.

With a fair bit of CCGT plant lying unused it would seem very odd to instead utilise the less efficient open cycle gas turbines for many hours at a time.

I therefore surmise that the plant in question is not burning natural gas but is instead running on light distillate oil, of which there is no near term shortage.
Alternatively, maybe the indicated OCGT output on Gridwatch includes diesel generation ? Very little UK grid connected generating capacity is diesel, but there is some and it serves the same basic purpose as OCGT, cheap to build, quick starting, suitable for unattended automatic operation, but too expensive in fuel costs for routine use.

This is however supposition on my part.

Post by **adam2** » 02 Mar 2018, 12:45

Does anyone have a link to UK spot electricity prices ?
Very high I suspect, but data would be preferable.
It cant be economic to purchase GAS on the spot market to produce electricity, UNLESS the electricity can be sold for an enormous price.

A lot of gas for electricity production is purchased on advance contracts, but some may be purchased on the spot market.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 02 Mar 2018, 15:54

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/201 ... ct=english

Any help?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 02 Mar 2018, 16:07

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote: Had to lean out of the Velux this afternoon and knock the snow off ours !
OK RC enlighten me, What to hell is a Velux? my best guess is a gable window but what do I know?
Until recently Velux held a patent for this design of window but since its lapse quite a few imitations have sprung up including Fakro. Like a hoover the original name has stuck for the type.

Sorry, 'course they'd have a different name Stateside (if indeed they exist at all there!). But ours are the actual Velux. I know because we can't get the labels off