Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[vtsnowedin]

As has been advocated many times on this forum, the situation could all be dealt with in one blow, no need for bitty legislation.

I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?

That might do it.

Seriously, ask Shaun Chamberlain.

I have lost the two of you's line of thought. What good would a hard crash achieve? Would it make the needed response readily apparent? To whom? And would they be the ones in charge and in control of the needed funds.

[emordnilap]

I assume you are alluding to a hard grid crash?

That might do it.

Seriously, ask Shaun Chamberlain.

I have lost the two of you's line of thought.

Apols. vt. I was advocating asking Shaun Chamberlain, who is heavily involved in TEQs; PV thought I might instead have meant a hard crash, which would be the alternative to Shaun's baby.

[adam2]

National grid have now published the winter outlook for the approaching winter.

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industr ... r-Outlook/

Click on the above, and then click the link about half way down the front page for the full report.

[adam2]

Having read the winter outlook report, it seems to me to be reasonably accurate, I see no glaring errors or omissions, but as in previous years I feel that it may be a bit optimistic.

In particular an assumed maximum demand of 50.7GW seems a bit optimistic. A prolonged cold spell in midwinter could in my view see demand reach 52GW.
Demand has been falling for some years, but may not continue to fall.
The increase in the number of all electric homes might prove interesting.

The spare capacity seems better than in the recent past, but is measured in a slightly different way so might not be a direct comparison.
The approaching winter is the first one in which the new "capacity market"* applies and the reliability of such capacity remains to be seen.

In line with accepted practice, the national grid apply "de rating factors" to plant capacity, thereby allowing for the historic average rate of breakdowns and other outages.
The figures used have a good record of reflecting the actual position in previous years. The main caveat is that such averages do not take account of any systemic problem that affects a whole category of generation, for example a safety issue that affects all nukes of a certain design, or a lack of gas supply to gas power stations.

My personnel view is that we will probably muddle through as usual, but that the margin may be tighter than forecast, and that exceptional severe weather could lead to the odd rota cut, probably a few hours a year at the worst.

[fuzzy]

I presume the derating capacity will increase a lot with wind power as a major source as it is unpredictable and mainly away from cities. Home solar will tend to feed in to the local neighbourhood of consumers.

[adam2]

I presume the derating capacity will increase a lot with wind power as a major source as it is unpredictable and mainly away from cities. Home solar will tend to feed in to the local neighbourhood of consumers.

Wind power is treated differently, a figure called the "equivalent firm capacity" is given. This is the amount of electricity that wind can contribute with the same degree of reliability as fuel burning plant. It is very low if compared to the maximum output from wind.
The distance between wind turbines and cities is of little relevance.

Solar power makes no contribution whatsoever to the mid winter evening peak, since it is dark.
The proximity of most solar to the load is of little relevance.

[adam2]

Here is my REASONABLY PESSIMISTIC view of available generating capacity to meet the peak demand during the coming winter.

Figures given are my own forecasts and estimates but based on previous figures and other published data. All figures in GW.

Coal-----------8, it was higher than this last winter, but owing to the age of the plant 8 seems reasonable.
Nuclear-------6.5, it has been higher but 6.5 is probably the most that can be counted on.
CCGT--------25, a little less than achieved last year to allow for breakdowns.
Wind---------0.5, it will probably be many times that, but only 0.5 can be reliably counted on.
Net imports 1, typically it is twice that or more, but 1 allows for breakdowns or lack of capacity in Europe.
Biomass-------1.5, allows for breakdowns.
OCGT and diesel----0.5
Hydro and pumped storage-------2.5

Or a total of 45.5, significantly below the expected peak demand of at least 50 and possibly more.
The above does however include what in my opinion are the worst reasonably foreseeable figures, based on past experience.
It is in my view probable that SOME of my worst estimates will come true, but it would be extreme bad luck for ALL or most of the worst estimates to be realised at the same time.

I will repeat the exercise making reasonably optimistic assumptions and estimates.

[adam2]

Here is my REASONABLY OPTIMISTIC view of capacity for the coming winter, again based on previous data but with optimistic assumptions about availability.
All figures in GW.

Coal-----------10, it reached 10 last winter.
Nuclear---------8, it has fairly regularly sustained 8 in the past.
CCGT-----------27, a slight increase on last year.
Wind-------------1, it will probably be several times this figure, but 1 is all that is fairly reliably available.
Pumped and hydro--4, cant be long sustained but should help for the high peak.
OCGT and diesel---1
Biomass-------------2, it was steady at 2 last winter.
Net imports ---------2, regularly attained in the past.

That totals 55, well over the expected maximum demand of just over 50 and a reasonable margin over my own "worst case, extreme winter scenario" of about 52.

In producing this reasonably optimistic forecast, I have presumed that the new "capacity market" will bring a modest increase in both CCGT and OCGT/diesel capacity.

[vtsnowedin]

Here is my REASONABLY PESSIMISTIC view of available generating capacity to meet the peak demand during the coming winter.

Figures given are my own forecasts and estimates but based on previous figures and other published data. All figures in GW.

Coal-----------8, it was higher than this last winter, but owing to the age of the plant 8 seems reasonable.
Nuclear-------6.5, it has been higher but 6.5 is probably the most that can be counted on.
CCGT--------25, a little less than achieved last year to allow for breakdowns.
Wind---------0.5, it will probably be many times that, but only 0.5 can be reliably counted on.
Net imports 1, typically it is twice that or more, but 1 allows for breakdowns or lack of capacity in Europe.
Biomass-------1.5, allows for breakdowns.
OCGT and diesel----0.5
Hydro and pumped storage-------2.5

Or a total of 45.5, significantly below the expected peak demand of at least 50 and possibly more.
The above does however include what in my opinion are the worst reasonably foreseeable figures, based on past experience.
It is in my view probable that SOME of my worst estimates will come true, but it would be extreme bad luck for ALL or most of the worst estimates to be realised at the same time.

I will repeat the exercise making reasonably optimistic assumptions and estimates.

It will be interesting to compare your conservative estimates against what actually happens on the worst days of the winter.
Your Some Vs. All argument makes sense but a crisis is just a couple of clicks toward All .

[adam2]

Indicated demand tonight is 45GW, on the high side for the time of year.
OCGT plant running, tonight is the first time that I have noticed it this season. Only 0.1 GW.
OCGT plant is expensive to run and its use usually suggests that limited alternatives are available.

[adam2]

We have been exporting significant electricity to France recently.
Every weekday last week we exported almost continually, which has been unusual in recent years.
Imports to the UK resumed over the weekend, but today we have been exporting again.

The weather both here and in France has been colder than average, but nothing exceptional.

[mikepepler]

Are they having nuclear problems again, or is it just high demand? Things look fairly normal at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/

[mikepepler]

Answered my own question...

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/elec ... s-26839181

[adam2]

Indeed, this is a slight failing of the otherwise useful gridwatch site.
The data only goes back 12 months. So a glance at French nuclear production for the last 12 months shows that production is "normal", which it is if only looking at the relatively recent past.

French nuclear production is however down on that expected, hence the need for imports from us

France has relatively little CCGT capacity, but what they do have is being worked hard and burning a lot of gas.

These events MIGHT slightly bring forward a crunch in the UK as regards capacity.
Coal burning power plants are limited in future life to a certain number of hours. We are burning more coal in order to export electricity to France and are therefore "using up" those hours quicker than expected.

[adam2]

Coal at 9.6, a record for this season.
CCGT at 25.3 also a record, or very near for this season
A little OCGT running.
Exports to France reduced in the last hour or so, but we are still exporting.