Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[woodburner]

Tonight's figures at around 1800, from gridwatch rounded to 1 dp.

Demand. 47GW
Coal. 6.3
Nuclear. 8.4
CCGT. 21.5
French ICT. 1.5
Dutch ICT. 1
Wind. 5
Pumped hydro 0.4
Hydro. 1.8
Biomass. 2

The dials are well up towards the indicated limits.

[adam2]

Indeed, with an indicated demand of 47, and a reasonably foreseeable maximum demand of say 53, it is hard to see from where another 6 is to be found.

With a bit of luck, we should have 24 from OCGT, an increase of 2.5
And about 8.3 from coal, an increase of 2 from tonight's figure.
An extra 1 from pumped and hydro is possible for the high peak
And say 0.5 from OCGT.

That is of course is another 6 potentially available, which on first sight is sufficient to plug the gap.
But before any undue optimism breaks out, remember that tonight we had a near record nuclear output of 8.4, I would not count on more than 6.4 from nuclear, and even that might be optimistic.
It was also windy tonight, wind could well be 2 less than was achieved this evening.

All figures in GW.

[cubes]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b082kbbs

^ about 6:50 this morning if you want listen there was a short bit about the interconnector and possible power cuts in France due to some nuclear power stations being offline.

The operator of France’s national power grid has warned that due to technical problems it may have to take "exceptional measures", such as rolling blackouts and even paying firms that use lots of energy to switch off. The BBC’s industry correspondent John Moylan reports.

[Potemkin Villager]

It was also windy tonight, wind could well be 2 less than was achieved this evening.

All figures in GW.

A night with an anticyclone over the UK, clear skies and plummeting temperatures, well above average evening peak demand and the entire wind energy fleet at a standstill could be quite challenging!

The problem with wind is that when you most need it, it just isn't there.

[adam2]

It is very improbable that the ENTIRE UK wind turbine fleet would be becalmed at the same time during the winter.

A drop in indicated output down to as little as 1GW is probable, and a drop to 0.5GW is possible.

If that coincided with a few nuke or FF outages then yes it could be interesting.

[kenneal - lagger]

Some people go on about a high pressure area giving very cold conditions and no wind during the winter but that would not have as much an effect on heating demand as many people think. Most UK housing is very leaky which means that when you have high winds you have high heat demand no matter what the temperature. When there is no wind the heat loss from houses decreases markedly because the heat isn't being sucked out of the house by the wind. Also there is often a lot of sunshine which can give houses with south facing glazing quite a good heat input. So cold with no wind is not the problem that many people would like to think.

[adam2]

Wind power is down to 0.61 tonight which is an unusually low figure for time of year.
Indicated demand at nearly 44, high for a Sunday evening.

And most unusual for a Sunday, some OCGT plant running. I think that this may be the first time that OCGT plant has been needed on a sunday.

All this despite an excellent and near record nuclear output of well over 8

All figures in GWH.

[Potemkin Villager]

So cold with no wind is not the problem that many people would like to think.

I am not so sure Ken as the buildings that are leaky are not generally well insulated either, whatever the case electrical demand seems to particularly spike up during cold calm periods. Just as people turn up their central heating thermostats when the weather gets colder, so too they see, to leave more electrical appliances switched on including a variety of electrical space heaters.

[adam2]

Recently, CCGT reached 24, which I suspect to be an all time record.
Tonight that very recent record may be exceeded, presuming that enough capacity is available. Good thing that we have plenty of gas in stock
Demand is greater than last week due to colder weather, and might reach 50.

Wind is only about 2
PV contributed 4 earlier but wont help at all in the evening peak.

All figures in GW

[Pepperman]

Reports on Twitter that Angus knocked out half the 2GW of IFA interconnector:

https://twitter.com/emilygosden/status/ ... 2586198016
https://twitter.com/_jonnydavison/statu ... 2199169024

[adam2]

The loss of half the interconnector capacity certainly wont help.
Imports of electricity from France have been restricted recently due to ongoing nuke outages in France.
Even with shortages on both sides of the channel, the interconnector still gives a bit of valuable flexibility, especially if peak demand times differ, as they do.
Fortunately our nukes are performing excellently, with output consistently at near record levels.

And BTW last night UK CCGT production reached 24.1 GW which I suspect is a new all time record.

[adam2]

CCGT reached 24.38 tonight which I am pretty certain is an all time record.
Coal reached 8.4, which is the highest seen recently, though of course it was much higher in years gone by.
OCGT at 0.2
Wind was a very typical 2.0

It would have been interesting if the wind had dropped to 1 or if a couple of nukes had tripped, or if the other half of the French interconnector had broken.
Not certain if another 1 or 2 from gas is available.

All figures in GW

[Pepperman]

More on the interconnector issues:

http://www.powerengineeringint.com/arti ... maged.html

[adam2]

CCGT tonight at over 25GW which is another all time record.
OCGT running as well, no significant imports from France.

Certainly seem to be cutting it fine.

[adam2]

Looks very tight all day today,
CCGT at over 25, unprecedented until the last few days.
Very little wind or PV, only about 1 in total.
Nuclear a little reduced at nearly 8, but still doing well compared to some winters.
Coal at over 8, which is probably about all we have left.
Not much hope of help from France due to nuclear outages there.