Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 31 Oct 2014, 10:00

We know what the problem is, we know the consequences of inaction, we know what to do and how to do it, but we dither about allowing the problem to get worse by the day.

Just like with global warming only speeded up by about two orders of magnitude.

Has the gulf between science and politics ever been greater?

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 31 Oct 2014, 12:51

Recommended read -

http://www.psandman.com/col/Ebola-3.htm

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 31 Oct 2014, 21:37

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Recommended read -

http://www.psandman.com/col/Ebola-3.htm

Similair ideas here:

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/bios ... ponse.html

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 31 Oct 2014, 22:19

Aaarrgh wrong thread!

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 01 Nov 2014, 19:12

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Grimmest report I've seen so far.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... ease-fight

God that breaks my heart. Toddler in the house with dead body of father, knocking on the door trying to get out. Mother already buried. Toddler is already infected.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 01 Nov 2014, 21:30

RenewableCandy wrote:Aaarrgh wrong thread!

Was wondering all day why I was a Devious Fecker..

Kinda disappointed to have this badge of honour withdrawn.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 01 Nov 2014, 21:45

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:Aaarrgh wrong thread!
Was wondering all day why I was a Devious Fecker.. Kinda disappointed to have this badge of honour withdrawn.

Yeah, I was wondering how my cover was blown. Perhaps I could start a deviant support line.

Post by **adam2** » 02 Nov 2014, 12:18

This report suggests that the spread may be slowing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29847058
Though as others have posted, reports elsewhere are less optimistic.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 03 Nov 2014, 11:21

Good resource here.

http://www.eboladeeply.org/

Post by **clv101** » 04 Nov 2014, 12:28

Models overestimate Ebola cases
Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak.
http://www.nature.com/news/models-overe ... es-1.16279

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 04 Nov 2014, 14:45

I think we have to be very careful to draw those conclusions. It quite clearly says in the linked report that,

"Researchers are now struggling to understand whether reports of empty beds at treatment centres and declining burial numbers are signs that fewer people are developing Ebola, or whether cases and deaths are going unrecorded" - my highlighting

The fact that so many sick people have been turned away from hospitals over the last few weeks and that the disease is stigmatised in the countries concerned, highlights that it may indeed be due to cases being unrecorded, ie. poor data

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 04 Nov 2014, 15:05

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29888067

Very sad report.

I presume all these dead bodies will be counted in the stats?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 04 Nov 2014, 16:56

clv101 wrote:Models overestimate Ebola cases
Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak.
http://www.nature.com/news/models-overe ... es-1.16279

This seems the key section:

In the meantime, Bruce Aylward, a WHO assistant director-general who is coordinating the agency’s Ebola efforts, is “terrified” that any plateau in new cases will be misinterpreted as meaning that the problem is going away. There is still a need to greatly increase the resources available to treat infected people and prevent new cases, Aylward says.

But if the slowing rate of infection in Liberia is confirmed, it could suggest that even moderate levels of public-health intervention can pay off, says Golding. For the current Ebola outbreak, the average number of new cases spawned by an infected individual — 1.2–2.2 — is much lower than that of many other communicable diseases, such as measles (which can spread to between 12 and 18 people per case). As Ebola prevention measures push down this figure, the disease becomes easier to control; when it dips below 1, virus spread stops completely.

Modelling when one doesn't know if the spread rate is 1.2 or 2.2 must be tricky.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 04 Nov 2014, 18:14

My own approach would be to proceed using very pessimistic assumptions. I suspect TPTB will proceed using optimistic assumptions.

Post by **clv101** » 04 Nov 2014, 18:44

And of course the nature of exponential growth, halting in one area (say Liberia) will quickly be irrelevant if it continues unabated in another area (say Sierra Leone).