Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 28 Oct 2014, 19:23

The info here seems contradictory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_viru ... est_Africa

A an apparent spike of 4.1% daily(?) increase in the numbers table. Contrasting with a sharp reduction on the cases per day graph. But divided over the 6 days not 1, that's a daily growth of 0.7 percent...

albeit this is all underreported...

Post by **clv101** » 28 Oct 2014, 19:28

Yes, indeed. The graphs haven't been updated yet for that most recent data point for Liberia. Whilst we know there's a lot of under reporting something between a factor of 1.5 to 3... we don't know if the level of under reporting is stable or increasing.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 Oct 2014, 19:29

http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c1 ... c99a17177f

KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — Authorities are having trouble figuring out how many more people are getting Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone and where the hot spots are in those countries, harming efforts to get control of the raging, deadly outbreak, the U.N.'s top Ebola official in West Africa said Tuesday.
"The challenge is good information, because information helps tell us where the disease is, how it's spreading and where we need to target our resources," Anthony Banbury told The Associated Press by phone from the Ghanaian capital of Accra, where the U.N. Mission for Ebola Emergency Response, or UNMEER, is based.
Health experts say the key to stopping Ebola is breaking the chain of transmission by tracing and isolating those who have had contact with Ebola patients or victims. Health care workers can't do that if they don't know where new cases are emerging.
"And unfortunately, we don't have good data from a lot of areas. We don't know exactly what is happening," said Banbury, the chief of UNMEER.

Lurkalot · Post by **Lurkalot** » 28 Oct 2014, 19:35

jonny2mad wrote:http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10 ... for-ebola/ obama planning to bring ebola patients to usa, not sure if its true but might be, if so hes mad

One has to question what controls would be put in place when this sort of thing comes up ...
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/1 ... s-lawsuit/

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Oct 2014, 20:05

biffvernon wrote:http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c1 ... c99a17177f

KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — Authorities are having trouble figuring out how many more people are getting Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone and where the hot spots are in those countries, harming efforts to get control of the raging, deadly outbreak, the U.N.'s top Ebola official in West Africa said Tuesday.
"The challenge is good information, because information helps tell us where the disease is, how it's spreading and where we need to target our resources," Anthony Banbury told The Associated Press by phone from the Ghanaian capital of Accra, where the U.N. Mission for Ebola Emergency Response, or UNMEER, is based.
Health experts say the key to stopping Ebola is breaking the chain of transmission by tracing and isolating those who have had contact with Ebola patients or victims. Health care workers can't do that if they don't know where new cases are emerging.
"And unfortunately, we don't have good data from a lot of areas. We don't know exactly what is happening," said Banbury, the chief of UNMEER.

Well knock me down with a feather. The health system is overwhelmed, people are staying and dying at home instead of trying to get into a hospital, and the authorities are losing track of what is going on. Forgive me for not being surprised.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Oct 2014, 22:16

We now have a traveler quarantined in Vermont.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/stor ... /18060701/
Getting close to home very fast.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Oct 2014, 23:17

Sanity breaks out in Australia...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29809863

Sierra Leone has condemned Australia's decision to suspend entry visas for people from Ebola-affected countries in West Africa as "counterproductive" and "discriminatory".

The move has also been criticised by Amnesty International.

...and Amnesty International condemns it.

Hmmm, Amnesty International. What, exactly, does this have to do with them?

I can honestly say that this is the first time in my life I have found myself in total disagreement with something being said by Amnesty International.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Oct 2014, 07:51

The Australian government doesn't accept the science on climate change so why should it accept science in health care?

Here's the view with someone who deserves respect:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-29/r ... es/5851458

Or this from an Australian journalist:
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/micha ... ell-are-we

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Oct 2014, 08:37

Australia's newly appointed Ebola tsar challenged the government's blanket ban on visas from West African nations affected by the deadly virus, saying the controversial measure was not supported by medical evidence.

Opposition groups hit out at the ban, calling the conservative government's move mean-spirited and small-minded.

Australia came under fire from health experts and rights advocates on Tuesday after it said that it would stop issuing visas to citizens of Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, becoming the first rich nation to shut its doors to the region.

The government touted the ban as a necessary precaution, but Dr. Lyn Gilbert, a leading infectious disease expert who was earlier this month placed in charge of the nation's response to the virus, said there was no evidence to back its claim.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/ ... CU20141029

North Korea, it seems, has banned travellers from West Africa. (By their friends may you know them.)

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 29 Oct 2014, 10:40

biffvernon wrote:The Australian government doesn't accept the science on climate change so why should it accept science in health care?

Here's the view with someone who deserves respect:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-29/r ... es/5851458

Or this from an Australian journalist:
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/micha ... ell-are-we

people always have their own perspective. My perspective of the British red cross, for example is that 1/2 their income is already paid by the government from my taxes, they only spend 67% of their income on 'good causes' [+ expenses], and they are run by gravy train lawyers who are paid about £200000 per year. I see they and the other snouts are going to pester us to pay for their xmas bonuses:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 24352.html

DEC for those who don't know is a marketing group of well funded charites [mainly by taxpayer funding] who will organise media sob stories to scrounge money. If stopping ebola in 60 days is critical, then it is not up to voluntary donations to fund it.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 Oct 2014, 11:18

Do you include Amanda McClelland as one of the 'other snouts'?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-29/r ... es/5851458

Stopping Ebola in 60 days is critical, and I agree that it should not be up to voluntary donations to fund it. That's why I wrote to Justine Greening several weeks ago telling her that I supported the UK increasing it's spending in the problem by an order of magnitude. Perhaps if thousands of others had done likewise we would not be where we are.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 29 Oct 2014, 21:52

“I’m terrified that the information will be misinterpreted,” said Dr Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general in charge of the Ebola operational response. “This is like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease. Any transmission change could result in many, many more deaths.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... come-trust

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 29 Oct 2014, 22:08

The apparent optimism is at odds with the latest huge spike in caseload in stats on Wiki to 12000 - which they themselves estimate as understated by a factor of 3.... Attributable to Liberia numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_viru ... est_Africa

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 30 Oct 2014, 20:58

Grimmest report I've seen so far.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... ease-fight

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 30 Oct 2014, 22:29

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Grimmest report I've seen so far.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... ease-fight

Agreed. And this is quite obviously just the start.