Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

nexus · Post by **nexus** » 16 Oct 2014, 11:49

Hey folks, lets focus up.

One thing I've been wondering about is how come the family of the Dallas index case (as far as we know) are fine and yet two of his nurses - who were wearing protective gear are sick. I guess it gets vastly more infectious the more symptomatic it is?

Also I understand the extremely grim end stage is called a cytokine (may have spelled that wrong) storm. Does anyone know whether people have ever recovered from this stage?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Oct 2014, 11:57

nexus wrote:Hey folks, lets focus up.

One thing I've been wondering about is how come the family of the Dallas index case (as far as we know) are fine (so far) and yet two of his nurses - who were wearing protective gear are sick. I guess it gets vastly more infectious the more symptomatic it is?

Yes. And we also don't know whether they are going to continue to be fine. There's a big (time) difference between being exposed to one ebola virus cell and being exposed to thousands of them. There's a doubling rate for the virus itself, so if you only get infected with one virus cell then there is a long delay while it repeats the process of infecting a human cell, taking over the cell's machinery to create new virus and releasing the mature virus. If you are exposed to lots of the virus in one go then it takes considerably shorter time before you show symptoms.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 16 Oct 2014, 11:59

stevecook172001 wrote:Is that site actually for real?

Nope. Parody apparently. Bit like the Mash (and Onion).

Ebola to be contained within Apprentice house

A COBRA source said: “If we cannot stop Ebola we can at least put jumped-up wide boys and two-faced megabitches between it and fully functioning humans.

“Visitors to the UK exhibiting signs of the disease will be quarantined in The Apprentice house alongside the contestants, who will all think they can beat it anyway because they’re so full of themselves.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/heal ... 4100891480

nexus · Post by **nexus** » 16 Oct 2014, 12:00

Thanks UE, that makes complete sense.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 16 Oct 2014, 12:04

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote:Is that site actually for real?
Nope. Parody apparently. Bit like the Mash (and Onion).

Doh, MMM! Spoilsport.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 Oct 2014, 12:09

I thought you were joking! It's a real headline.

A very long time ago when I was at university, I shared a flat with a bloke who, when he wasn't under too much influence of lysergic acid diethylamide, would plot wonderful ways of influencing the world to turn it in chaotic directions. It made excellent mealtime conversations and was perfectly harmless since the Internet had not been invented and he had no way of spreading his ideas further than our food preparation room. He was a good bloke, really.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Oct 2014, 12:48

For once some hope for a less apocalyptic outcome.

http://www.chch.com/mac-researches-ebola-immunization/

Some people seem able to fend off ebola without falling ill. They maybe have an immune system better able to detect the virus early and build antibodies against it in time. This seems reasonable - only the extreme cases are detected at first.

If significant people are effectively immune, they may be a source of antibodies to treat the less fortunate. A worthwhile line of research, although I don't think we should be clutching at straws just yet.

We should get some evidence in the coming months, if the death rate in West Africa starts to tail off faster than the expected infection rate.

If it turns out that 3/4 of us will not fall ill with ebola, it is still devastating to society, but not quite on plague proportions.

Post by **clv101** » 16 Oct 2014, 13:26

Regarding incubation time, these are the best data we have:

From: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

With the bulk of onset occurring with ~12 days of exposure, add another day or two for reporting, and we should have a clearer picture of the US situation by the 22nd-ish, middle of next week.

The paper that chart is from is really very good, lots of data on who dies and a long list of symptoms.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Oct 2014, 15:19

AirFrance airline stopped at Madrid and Ebola suspect removed by team in Hazmat suits. 182 passengers on board.

Early indications are that the illness is not ebola. We will know soon enough. Even our local paper has raised the prospect of a local case within weeks.

We will see dozens of airline diversions in the coming weeks. Airlines are not going to be happy.

In the US the latest victim was transferred to a specialist unit for treatment by a nursing team in full hazmat suits and a supervisor in shirtsleeves and checkboard.

Talk about tick box medicine.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 16 Oct 2014, 15:29

Suspected medical worker hospitalised in France.

http://m.leparisien.fr/societe/paris-ca ... 217825.php

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 17 Oct 2014, 00:54

http://indianexpress.com/photos/picture ... i-delhi/2/

Now, this could be interesting.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Oct 2014, 01:03

maudibe wrote:http://indianexpress.com/photos/picture ... i-delhi/2/

Now, this could be interesting.

India shows the US what an appropriate response to an Ebola threat looks like. The Indians are on top of the situation. The Americans aren't. Arrogance kills...

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-6- ... rt-2015484

Post by **clv101** » 17 Oct 2014, 08:53

Over the last few days there have been a dozen or so dramatic sounding news stories of Ebola symptoms. However as far as I can tell no new cases outside West Africa. Are these all false alarms?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 17 Oct 2014, 09:11

Last night I was talking to someone who had spent August in Ghana.

She said that in Ghana at that time there was a great deal of talk and awareness at all levels about the Ebola threat. There was a big information campaign going on. Reports from Liberia at the time told of a situation of some panic with a bunch of civil servants doing a runner n the President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf declaring that there would be no job for them if the bothered turning up for work again. China was doing a lot to help, something that doesn't seem to have been reported in our media.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 17 Oct 2014, 09:19

First (?) country to ban all travelers from main Ebola countries

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... a-epidemic

Won't be the last.