Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Oct 2014, 19:54

PS_RalphW wrote:The doubling time is only stable as numbers increase. Also we don't know if the doubling time will be higher or lower in a western country. If symptomatic patients are only isolated after ebola confirmation and high risk individuals are allowed onto flights the doubling time could be less. If this latest victim had travelled 36 hours later we might have had a dozen cases brewing by now.

We might have a dozen cases brewing anyway. I'm not completely convinced by this "no symptoms means no infections" claim. It is quite obvious that the people making these claims are very much interested in talking down risk and minimising panic. If they really believed what they are saying, then why are they bothering to trace all the people on the flight? The truth is they aren't sure.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 15 Oct 2014, 21:32

Logic meltdown coming to a hospital near you:

http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/blo ... al-in-dal/

Post by **clv101** » 15 Oct 2014, 21:47

If this is accurate, I expect we'll be seeing more than just the two currently identified cases. Duncan turned up at hospital (for the 2nd time) vomiting, on 28th Sept, died there on the 8th Oct. Mapping those dates forward 21 days, gives us 19-29th Oct. There's still loads of time for new cases to appear.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 15 Oct 2014, 22:18

Why am I not surprised? The nurse already had a raised temperature when she took the flight back to Dallas.

Really, this is like a horror movie where you can see exactly what each victim must not do, then you watch helplessly knowing full well exactly what they are going to do.

Post by **clv101** » 15 Oct 2014, 22:29

Here's a good summary of Ebola data quality:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29628481

We should have a better understanding of Western impact by the end of the month. Any word on the suspected case in Belgium?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 15 Oct 2014, 23:53

fuzzy wrote:Logic meltdown coming to a hospital near you:

http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/blo ... al-in-dal/

F--k me sideways. That is actually incredible. I mean...what the F--k?!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Oct 2014, 00:16

stevecook172001 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:Logic meltdown coming to a hospital near you:

http://www.nationalnursesunited.org/blo ... al-in-dal/
**** me sideways. That is actually incredible. I mean...what the ****?!

Yep, it is quite extraordinary. Anyone who watches the news is seeing daily pictures of people dressed, more or less, in space suits in order to protect themselves, and yet countless doctors and other "health workers" have already been infected in West Africa. We already knew ebola was highly infectious, and lethal. And any person who has ever had anything to do with a hospital ought to be well aware of the perils of cross-contamination, even when dealing with something that isn't the most dangerous virus on the planet. They have once chance to get this right. And yet, it would appear, they are getting pretty much everything wrong. They are making basic mistakes that everybody taking part in this discussion would be unlikely to make. "Incredible" is the right word.

They have well and truly f***ed it up. I believe the situation is still rescuable - the US outbreak is not yet out of control. But if the response so far is anything to go by, it won't take long before it is out of control. Maybe 3 months.

I mean... you've got to wonder...where are these 72 people that are most likely to be incubating ebola? Are they in strict quarantine to make sure they don't pass it on to anybody else? I'd put money on them not being so. They are probably just having their temperature taken daily and being asked to report if they have any symptoms. Which is, of course, too late to prevent them from having transmitted the disease to family members or other contacts.

It actually looks like the Americans are making a bigger mess of this than happened in West Africa, where the disease was nearly contained.

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 16 Oct 2014, 00:58

How about this then: Unbelievable!

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/health/Plain ... 57962.html

WOW.....

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Oct 2014, 01:11

I realize I'm going to sound like a stuck record here, but it seems to me that the main problem being exposed in the USA on this issue is related to a private market operating in the healthcare sphere coupled with a cripplingly underfunded public system, such as it exists. This will inevitably mean there is a significant lack of standardised protocols for dealing with large scale healthcare emergencies and, even where they exist, there will always be a risk of a conflict of interest between what is needed from those protocols and what is profitable. Everything those nurses spoke of seemed to me to be related to under-staffing, under-training and bosses who were over-eager to keep them on the job with the minimum of resources. In other words, the problem seems to stem from the profit motive and to hell with what is best for society at large. Or, to put it another way, in a society where it's every man for himself, we should not be surprised if people tend to act in terms of a horizon of self interest that lies only just beyond the end of their noses.

Now, of course, we have similar budgetary issue over here, but for the different reason of less public money being available for the NHS at the moment. Nevertheless, I would hope we still have at least some vestige of a collective cultural spirit to not F--k-up quite so royally as the Yanks seem to be doing

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 16 Oct 2014, 01:28

Not being up on microbiology...

But...

Is there anyway Ebola can 'piggyback' onto the seasonal flu virus?

Just a thought.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 16 Oct 2014, 01:52

maudibe wrote:Not being up on microbiology...

But...

Is there anyway Ebola can 'piggyback' onto the seasonal flu virus?

Just a thought.

My resident PHD says that is highly unlikely. Something about how the viruses bind with your cells either lung cells or blood cells. She does say that if Ebola does mutate to become airborne the viruses would then share the same attachment mechanism with flu and a cross bred would become more possible.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 16 Oct 2014, 10:49

It's all a communist plot

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 16 Oct 2014, 10:56

emordnilap wrote:It's all a communist plot

obama-is-infecting-christians-with-ebola-to-destroy-jesus-and-start-a-new-age-of-liberal-darkness

Best headline since 'Freddie Starr Ate My Hamster'

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Oct 2014, 11:18

Is that site actually for real?

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 16 Oct 2014, 11:49

Of course! Would anyone actually joke about such serious subjects?