Greece Watch...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 May 2012, 22:04

Which is why the more we do to get rid of nationalism and border controls the better.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 May 2012, 22:06

biffvernon wrote:Which is why the more we do to get rid of nationalism and border controls the better.

Are you totally insane, Biff? What do you think would happen if a couple of million Greeks decide to come to the UK looking for a better life?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 May 2012, 22:13

1. They probably wouldn't come.
2. They probably wouldn't find they were better off.
3. 1 will be true so long as they know that 2 is true.
4. Anyway, this last week aside, Greece is sunnier. People must prefer it there otherwise they wouldn't go there for holidays.

I said no borders. I didn't say new immigrants should automatically receive welfare payments they had not contributed to over previous years.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2012, 22:28

biffvernon wrote:1. They probably wouldn't come.
2. They probably wouldn't find they were better off.
3. 1 will be true so long as they know that 2 is true.
4. Anyway, this last week aside, Greece is sunnier. People must prefer it there otherwise they wouldn't go there for holidays.

I said no borders. I didn't say new immigrants should automatically receive welfare payments they had not contributed to over previous years.

(A) Regarding (1), (2) and (3), they would be better off in the UK if staying in Greece meant starvation. Don't think such a scenario is not possible. Real hunger is beginning to stalk the streets of Athens right now. "Better off" is a relative term depending on what you are leaving behind.

(B) Regarding (4), see (A). People, you may find, are more likely to prefer being a bit cold with full bellies as opposed to being a bit warm with empty ones.

(C) Regarding welfare payments, would you really wish to countenance a situation where we had the possibility of a massive and uncontrolled influx of economic immigrants who were then simply left to starve on our streets?

I'm all for giving basic aid to help the Greek people and others (insofar as we can afford to) though this terrible crisis in the form of food and other essential commodities etc. They are our neighbours and fellow human beings. But, our bottom line has to be to provide for a secure and sustainable future for our own people first. God help us, that is going to be a near impossible task as it is.

I am genuinely sorry to be saying this as it goes against my liberal core. But, those liberal niceties I have cherished for most of my adult life are going to be worth precisely shit in just a few years. We are going to be facing some incredibly hard choices and those choices will come down to fundamental stuff like whether or not we are even going to be able to provide basic social services for those people who are already here on this island, never mind any more!

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 28 May 2012, 23:14

Did anyone see the images on the news of the Ukrainian football supporters? There is a very nasty xenophobic undercurrent around in Europe at the moment. I am half-Polish, and I have seen the same racist attitudes there when I have visited. I've put it down partly to the fact that they have been isolated for 50 years, with restrictions on travel.

This is one thing that worries me about the coming Localism and the associated shortening of travel horizons. I wonder whether a side effect might be an increase in xenophobia as we travel less and have fewer opportunities to experience different cultures.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 May 2012, 23:15

Tarrel wrote:Did anyone see the images on the news of the Ukrainian football supporters? There is a very nasty xenophobic undercurrent around in Europe at the moment. I am half-Polish, and I have seen the same racist attitudes there when I have visited. I've put it down partly to the fact that they have been isolated for 50 years, with restrictions on travel.

This is one thing that worries me about the coming Localism and the associated shortening of travel horizons. I wonder whether a side effect might be an increase in xenophobia as we travel less and have fewer opportunities to experience different cultures.

Sadly, I think it is likely and will be further exacerbated by increasing economic hardship

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 28 May 2012, 23:28

""Better off" is a relative term, dependiNg on what you are leaving behind"

Especially when you think that, if things really go to pot, there will be a breakdown of sanitation and medical care, with a subsequent increase in disease in such a warm climate. I doubt if it would need a full social collapse for this to happen, just a progressive degradation in public services as a result of squeezed funding, layoffs and people just not showing up for work because they are not being paid.

revdode · Post by **revdode** » 29 May 2012, 08:30

biffvernon wrote:Which is why the more we do to get rid of nationalism and border controls the better.

The second is easy, getting rid of border controls would take no time at all. Getting rid of nationalism is not so easy, I think a project for many decades and in part what the european project has been all about. Sadly it has failed as the article indicates, when people are getting richer, or at least feeling richer together there are no issues. This is no longer the case. Add to this the addition of countries to the European grouping where nationalism is a significant player in the internal debate and I think we end up in a pretty mess.

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 29 May 2012, 15:11

Nationalism is a cultural phenomenon, if it's possible it would surely take generations to be rid of it. No real borders and massive propaganda didn't work in the Soviet Union.

There are a few threads on here asking which country would be the best to emigrate to post peak oil. It begs the question, come such a crisis, how welcome would PO refugees be in their new land?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 May 2012, 18:44

energy-village wrote: No real borders and massive propaganda didn't work in the Soviet Union.

You know, somehow I don't have the former USSR as my model for a borderess world where free movement is the norm.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 29 May 2012, 21:25

biffvernon wrote:A bit harsh on Christine Lagarde - she's only been Director of the IMF since last July. She can hardly be held responsible for the years of IMF policies. She may say some things that folk don't want to hear but that doesn't make her wrong.

On reflection, I think we can be as harsh as we like on Christine Lagarde. Turns out, after her going on about Greeks not paying their taxes, she pays NO tax on her salary of $551,700.

She comes under article 34 of the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations of 1961, which has been signed by 187 states, which declares: "A diplomatic agent shall be exempt from all dues and taxes, personal or real, national, regional or municipal."

I think that makes her part of the 1%.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... ays-no-tax

energy-village · Post by **energy-village** » 30 May 2012, 00:32

biffvernon wrote:
biffvernon wrote:A bit harsh on Christine Lagarde - she's only been Director of the IMF since last July. She can hardly be held responsible for the years of IMF policies. She may say some things that folk don't want to hear but that doesn't make her wrong.
On reflection, I think we can be as harsh as we like on Christine Lagarde. Turns out, after her going on about Greeks not paying their taxes, she pays NO tax on her salary of $551,700.

She comes under article 34 of the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations of 1961, which has been signed by 187 states, which declares: "A diplomatic agent shall be exempt from all dues and taxes, personal or real, national, regional or municipal."

I think that makes her part of the 1%.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... ays-no-tax

A non tax paying member of the 1% telling millions of ordinary folk to pay their taxes. Yep, sounds about right.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 02 Jun 2012, 12:50

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/ ... ML20120601

Greece's debt crisis threatened to turn into an energy crunch on Friday, with the power regulator calling an emergency meeting next week to avert a collapse of the country's electricity and natural gas system.

Regulator RAE called the emergency meeting after receiving a letter from Greece's natural gas company DEPA, dated May 31 and seen by Reuters, threatening to cut supplies to electricity producers if they failed to settle their arrears with the company.

An energy crisis would add to the debt-stricken country's political and financial strains, threatening households and businesses with power cuts ahead of a June 17 election which may decide if the country will stay within the euro.

The Greek government already risks running out of cash next month if it fails to receive fresh bailout funds from its lenders.

"RAE is taking crisis initiatives throughout next week to avert the collapse of the natural gas and electricity system," the regulator's chief, Nikos Vasilakos, told Reuters.

Greece is what collapse looks like.

1) The markets lose confidence in your national debt situation
2) Interest rates go up as investors sell the countries government bonds.
3) That leads to further problems with banks, requiring further bailouts, increasing national debt and leading to higher interest rates.
4) Governments has to cut government expenditure... this drives a decline in the real economy.
5) At some point big suppliers refuse to supply stuff and credit is withdrawn, leading to shortages of essentials and the risk of collapse of entire systems critical to a industrialise society.

What next is a social collapse? Martial law and who knows?

Interesting times indeed!

sweat · Post by **sweat** » 02 Jun 2012, 20:24

Lord Beria3 wrote: What next is a social collapse? Martial law and who knows?

Interesting times indeed!

I'm sure the Greeks are loving it

A little compassion wouldn't go amiss.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 02 Jun 2012, 21:59

sweat wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote: What next is a social collapse? Martial law and who knows?

Interesting times indeed!
I'm sure the Greeks are loving it A little compassion wouldn't go amiss.

No sweat, the Greeks are certainly not loving it.

And the interesting times is a reference to that old Chinese proverb.

It wasn't meant as a joke. Wake up man.