Lord Beria3 wrote:
The conditions of anather pan-European war are emerging.
"AnOther", and no they aren't. The previous pan-European wars happened when there were rival European powers with competing global empires (or in the case of Germany, the absence of a global empire and the desire to make up for this.) The world has changed since then. There may well be some old scores that get settled, and there will be squabbles over resources, but I do not believe we are heading towards another great European conflict of the WWI/WWII variety.
I think the noises being made about border controls are much more interesting anyway. Where is the population of Greece going to go when they can survive in Greece no longer? Not here, hopefully.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 27 May 2012, 10:47, edited 1 time in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Lord Beria3 wrote:
The conditions of anather pan-European war are emerging.
"AnOther", and no they aren't. The previous pan-European wars happened when there were rival European powers with competing global empires (or in the case of Germany, the absence of a global empire and the desire to make up for this.) There may well be some old scores that get settled, and there will be squabbles over resources, but I do not believe we are heading towards another great European conflict of the WWI/WWII variety.
I think the noises being made about border controls are much more interesting anyway. Where is the population of Greece going to go when they can survive in Greece no longer? Not here, hopefully.
That little upcoming problem has been occurring to me as well. We really need a zero immigration policy except in specialized circumstances. Unfortunately, the economic model we are still locked into does not allow policy makers to countenance this.
stevecook172001 wrote:Unfortunately, the economic model we are still locked into does not allow policy makers to countenance this.
Yet.
I don't think it will take long for the policy to change - that's why we're hearing noises about it. Most of the public was anti-immigration anyway, and now there's both a big surge in people wanting the UK to get out of the EU and a very real threat of mass economic migration within the EU from south to north. And we already have an unemployment problem being made worse by immigration from other EU countries.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
stevecook172001 wrote:Unfortunately, the economic model we are still locked into does not allow policy makers to countenance this.
Yet.
I don't think it will take long for the policy to change - that's why we're hearing noises about it. Most of the public was anti-immigration anyway, and now there's both a big surge in people wanting the UK to get out of the EU and a very real threat of mass economic migration within the EU from south to north.
I hope such a policy change takes place sooner rather than later (though, I wont hold my breath). If it's left till later (as it probably will be) then it is far more likely to be colored with all kinds of other unwelcome and unpleasant political overtones.
Now there's the thing. It's looking rather as though our government is fully aware of the state of the planet but is playing the last man standing game. And they're not making such a bad fist of it - bit by bit dismantling government services, sneakily trying to build nukes and coal power stations, keeping interest rates very low, maintaining London as financial centre of world, trying to stop immigration, building up a security system to counter civil unrest. It all adds up to maintaining the standard of living of at least the rich end of the UK for as long as possible and not a thought for future generations.
Just behind Greece? I guess there are quite a few countries in the queue in front of us still.
stevecook172001 wrote:Unfortunately, the economic model we are still locked into does not allow policy makers to countenance this.
Yet.
I don't think it will take long for the policy to change - that's why we're hearing noises about it. Most of the public was anti-immigration anyway, and now there's both a big surge in people wanting the UK to get out of the EU and a very real threat of mass economic migration within the EU from south to north.
I hope such a policy change takes place sooner rather than later (though, I wont hold my breath). If it's left till later (as it probably will be) then it is far more likely to be colored with all kinds of other unwelcome and unpleasant political overtones.
looks like iT's already under consideration according to this interview with Theresa May. It would appear immigration controls are permitted in an emergency under EU law.
biffvernon wrote:
Now there's the thing. It's looking rather as though our government is fully aware of the state of the planet but is playing the last man standing game.
+1
Even Prescott on Any Questions this week seemed to understand that if you want to ensure a reliable supply of electricity in the near future then you need to forget Green niceties and accept the reality that efficiency savings, solar power and wind generation add up to us being very cold and very hungry for most of the year.
UndercoverElephant wrote:
I don't think it will take long for the policy to change - that's why we're hearing noises about it. Most of the public was anti-immigration anyway, and now there's both a big surge in people wanting the UK to get out of the EU and a very real threat of mass economic migration within the EU from south to north.
I hope such a policy change takes place sooner rather than later (though, I wont hold my breath). If it's left till later (as it probably will be) then it is far more likely to be colored with all kinds of other unwelcome and unpleasant political overtones.
looks like iT's already under consideration according to this interview with Theresa May. It would appear immigration controls are permitted in an emergency under EU law.
One can't help but wonder what else is permitted in an emergency under EU law.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
UndercoverElephant wrote:
I don't think it will take long for the policy to change - that's why we're hearing noises about it. Most of the public was anti-immigration anyway, and now there's both a big surge in people wanting the UK to get out of the EU and a very real threat of mass economic migration within the EU from south to north.
I hope such a policy change takes place sooner rather than later (though, I wont hold my breath). If it's left till later (as it probably will be) then it is far more likely to be colored with all kinds of other unwelcome and unpleasant political overtones.
looks like iT's already under consideration according to this interview with Theresa May. It would appear immigration controls are permitted in an emergency under EU law.
One can't help but wonder what else is permitted in an emergency under EU law. Especially a Long Emergency...
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Lord Beria3 wrote:
The conditions of anather pan-European war are emerging.
"AnOther", and no they aren't. The previous pan-European wars happened when there were rival European powers with competing global empires (or in the case of Germany, the absence of a global empire and the desire to make up for this.) The world has changed since then. There may well be some old scores that get settled, and there will be squabbles over resources, but I do not believe we are heading towards another great European conflict of the WWI/WWII variety.
I think the noises being made about border controls are much more interesting anyway. Where is the population of Greece going to go when they can survive in Greece no longer? Not here, hopefully.
UE - the pan-European war I imagine will be more of a civil war in Western European (e.g. severe ethnic based tensions in our urban centre, far-right and jihadist violence/revolts) rather than state-on-state warfare.
It will be eastern Europe and the balkans, centred around greater Hungarian and albanian nationalisms, amongst others where the real horrors will occur. I also think that Russia will play up lingering ethnic tensions thoughout the whole border lands between the EU and the Russian Federation.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
While Christine Lagarde might not care about how the Greeks deal with their financial disaster, I think she might be a little more contrite, since the IMF happily let it all happen.
Obviously she and the rest of the IMF crew – and all those supposedly in charge of our financial systems – have no answers capable of addressing the scale of this problem. All they can offer involves crushing a nation's people into poverty for a generation, with who knows what long-term results. And, when Greece has been destroyed, Portugal, Spain, Italy and, who knows, France might follow. Will Lagarde shut up then?
A bit harsh on Christine Lagarde - she's only been Director of the IMF since last July. She can hardly be held responsible for the years of IMF policies. She may say some things that folk don't want to hear but that doesn't make her wrong.
biffvernon wrote:A bit harsh on Christine Lagarde - she's only been Director of the IMF since last July. She can hardly be held responsible for the years of IMF policies. She may say some things that folk don't want to hear but that doesn't make her wrong.
I've always thought of the IMF's chief job being getting the money back for the banks (including interest). I suppose that makes Christine Lagarde a bailiff minus the tattoos.
the pan-European war I imagine will be more of a civil war in Western European (e.g. severe ethnic based tensions in our urban centre, far-right and jihadist violence/revolts) rather than state-on-state warfare.
It's times like this that being an island nation has its benefits
Nothing I’ve heard from politicians or economists on the world crisis has shivered my spine like an hour spent with the gentle‑mannered historian Antony Beevor, whose mighty new book on the Second World War is making him the pundit of the moment. He does not mean to be alarmist, and that is why the soft warnings in his sunlit garden are chilling.
Of course the rise of the Right in Europe is not the same as the rise of the Right in the Thirties, he soothes. But isn’t it terrifying the way the Greeks are portraying the Germans as Nazis in their popular press, with Angela Merkel in Nazi uniform? There are “far too many jibes” about a Fourth Reich. The weedlike eruption of extremist parties makes him “uneasy” – and if Beevor is uneasy, it probably means the rest of us should be scared witless.
“The great European dream was to diminish militant nationalism,” he says. “We would all be happy Europeans together. But we are going to see the old monster of militant nationalism being awoken when people realise how little control their politicians have. We are already seeing political disintegration in Europe.”
This great historian has the same sense of a terrible war coming as I do... a chilling article on a chilling subject.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
