Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 06 Mar 2011, 16:14

Lurker...who knows, it is all speculation. But if Saud goes down then I fear that oil will be at a premium. Understatement. Other oil producing nations (with a surplus) though will have a field day.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 06 Mar 2011, 20:57

Lord Beria3 wrote: As I have said before, the start of Saudi unrest is the key trigger for a super-spike in oil prices, and the potential cascading collapse of other cards like sovereign debt crisis and severe interruptions to global energy networks.

So do you now think we may have a fast crash situation as opposed to a slow crash as you have previously stated? What do you think is likely to materialise over the coming few weeks and then months?

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 06 Mar 2011, 21:05

snow hope wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote: As I have said before, the start of Saudi unrest is the key trigger for a super-spike in oil prices, and the potential cascading collapse of other cards like sovereign debt crisis and severe interruptions to global energy networks.
So do you now think we may have a fast crash situation as opposed to a slow crash as you have previously stated? What do you think is likely to materialise over the coming few weeks and then months?

Yes, tell us more O wise one.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 08 Mar 2011, 20:50

We're not getting much news from Iran but there is unrest afoot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9nX9Qsn ... r_embedded

rightee · Post by **rightee** » 08 Mar 2011, 21:24

Looks like it is building for a March 11 protest according to this interesting article from the london review of books:

http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2011/03/08/hu ... y-of-rage/

In the event that force is used, however, organisers expect the demonstrations quickly to turn violent: unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, in Saudi Arabia there’s a large number of guns in private hands. ‘In Saudi Arabia an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of families have a weapon in their house and around 50 per cent of those weapons are AK-47s,’ an opposition source told me. ‘If I go on a peaceful demonstration and I am shot by the police and I am the son of a tribe then 100 per cent definitely my brother will bring a Kalashnikov and kill the policeman who killed me and he will kill more, five or ten. They know this, the police, and so I’ve been told by many ordinary individuals and officers that no way will they shoot us even if they are given orders and if force is used it will backfire in a very aggressive manner.’

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 08 Mar 2011, 22:18

I have always stated that there has been a risk of a hard crash (at least in certain parts of the world) - the geopolitically inspired spike in oil prices has the POTENTIAL for a petro-collapse of the global energy markets.

It is still a relatively low probability, but considerably higher than a month ago, due to the implosion of Libyan oil production.

I have never dismissed these concerns, but I would still (just) say that we are on the path of a slow crash... but the odds of a hard crash are much higher.

Anybody sensible should prepare for a hard crash, even if they don't think it is the most likely way things will progress.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 08 Mar 2011, 23:08

Sorry to sound so prosaic but what intrigues me about the massive, week-long protests is the logistics (of the protesters). What do they eat? If they've left work to protest, who pays the rent? Etc. And, do the PTB against whom they're protesting need them somewhere else (i.e., how much damage to their govts do they do simply by not being at work?).

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 08 Mar 2011, 23:14

RenewableCandy wrote:Sorry to sound so prosaic but what intrigues me about the massive, week-long protests is the logistics (of the protesters). What do they eat? If they've left work to protest, who pays the rent? Etc. And, do the PTB against whom they're protesting need them somewhere else (i.e., how much damage to their govts do they do simply by not being at work?).

Isn't there widespread unemployment in SA? In which case the protesters would get their food in the usual way, i.e. (presumably) by benefit payments.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 08 Mar 2011, 23:17

Good point, and what's more isn't a lot of the work there done routinely by people from other countries, like the Philipines?

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 09 Mar 2011, 04:33

OilPrice.com - 08/03/11

Why Oil Will Peak on Friday

Article continues ...

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 09 Mar 2011, 18:26

The Independent - 09/03/11

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said today that dialogue — not protests — is the way to bring reform and warned that the oil-rich nation will take strong action if activists take to the streets.

Article continues ...

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 10 Mar 2011, 06:49

The Guardian - 09/03/11

Saudi Arabia protests could be calamitous for oil market

If Saudi Arabian oil output is compromised, global oil prices could reach $200 a barrel, warn analysts.

Article continues ...

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 10 Mar 2011, 18:31

Shhhhh... take the Beebs lead and talk softly.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 10 Mar 2011, 19:16

maudibe wrote:Shhhhh... take the Beebs lead and talk softly.

Au contraire. There's a lot of MSM speculation about Saudi unrest out there at the moment. Some examples:

'Day of Rage' Planned for Saudi Arabia
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Day ... 34268.html

An Arab awakening for Saudi Arabia?
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/0 ... di-arabia/

Saudi Arabia unrest: a blogger's view
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ma ... ggers-view

Protests called Friday in Saudi Arabia
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast ... .protests/

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 10 Mar 2011, 19:50

Just to say that I do appreciate the continuing Aurora Newsfeed service. Glad you stayed on after all, despite the 'irritants'....