Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim provinces, clogging the highways into Dammam and other cities with busloads of troops in fear of next week's "day of rage" by what is now called the "Hunayn Revolution".
Saudi Arabia's worst nightmare – the arrival of the new Arab awakening of rebellion and insurrection in the kingdom – is now casting its long shadow over the House of Saud. Provoked by the Shia majority uprising in the neighbouring Sunni-dominated island of Bahrain, where protesters are calling for the overthrow of the ruling al-Khalifa family, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is widely reported to have told the Bahraini authorities that if they do not crush their Shia revolt, his own forces will.
The Saudi authorities are unlikely to stick at kettling and banging their shields. They have vast amounts of money for mercenaries, armaments, inside info and buying key people off – surely the protesters don’t stand a chance?
However, as for the protesters not standing a chance... it hinges on many things. How many protesters will there be? If their numbers are significant no amount of firepower will stop them. Perhaps more importantly, how many of the security forces will really be prepared to wage a war on their brothers and sisters, mothers and fathers?
Even if the uprising is quelled, life there will be changed forever with acts of rebellion, terrorism, assassination and disorder.
Can Saudi continue to operate as the worlds (2nd?) largest oil supplier?
However, as for the protesters not standing a chance... it hinges on many things. How many protesters will there be? If their numbers are significant no amount of firepower will stop them. Perhaps more importantly, how many of the security forces will really be prepared to wage a war on their brothers and sisters, mothers and fathers?
Even if the uprising is quelled, life there will be changed forever with acts of rebellion, terrorism, assassination and disorder.
Can Saudi continue to operate as the worlds (2nd?) largest oil supplier?
Indeed. The political consequences, both internally and externally, of a military crackdown on peaceful protestors would be severe in this case. It would put the US in an impossible position - desperate for the oil to keep flowing but unable to continue supporting the existing regime and with no means of controlling what happens if it falls.
Saudi Arabia's economy is in an "excellent" shape and a rise in oil prices will boost the strong economic and financial position of the world's top oil exporter, its finance minister said on Saturday.
"The Saudi bourse and the overall Gulf stock markets react away from economic factors," Ibrahim Alassaf told Al Arabiya TV.
The thing is, if there is a repression, it will most probably create an extremist fringe (not necessarily islamist) that will then try to F--k up the system one way or another (like attacking the oil infrastructure, which has already been tried by Al quaida there, and maybe some success we didn't hear of ..)
I think the House of Saud are on a loser no matter what happens. If they don't react they will be seen as weak and ready for revolt. If they react strongly there will be outrage and more revolt....
I think the Saudis will look to Tienanmen square for their guide. A sharp and clear demonstration of their willingness to kill anyone who opposes them that will put all protesters to flight while killing only a relatively few of those present.
My instinct says yes... the Saudis can't ignore the 'winds of change' across the Greater Middle East.
A people which taste freedom after decades of repression, tend to get addicted to it. As I have said before, the start of Saudi unrest is the key trigger for a super-spike in oil prices, and the potential cascading collapse of other cards like sovereign debt crisis and severe interruptions to global energy networks.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Most of the Saudi protesters are from the minority Shia areas of SA while the royal family and forces are from the Sunni population. Sunnis and Shias hate each other more than the Catholics and Protestants used to in Northern Ireland so the Sunni forces won't hesitate to gun down Shia protesters. Bahrain's problem is that the Sunni rulers are in a minority.
The big problems will come if Shia Iran comes to the rescue of it's fellow Shia Moslems. I would think that is unlikely at the moment as Iran is not in the best state either. Although an outside "distraction" could pull the population together for a while.
Saudi Arabia bans all marches as mass protest is planned for Friday
Extra troops are sent to north-east to quash any Shia protest as King Abdullah's regime gets jittery and oil prices soar in response to the region's continued unrest.
Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?
