Looks like we have a natural gas glut

[Erik]

I suppose it comes down to whether the US finds any economic or political advantage in using externally sourced gas/oil.

Perhaps it's 'better' to burn another country's gas/oil whilst leaving yours in the ground?

All this news about the US gas glut actually puts them in a better negotiating position for closing gas deals with other countries. It's pretty handy to be able to say "Look, I'm willing to commit to buying a few bcma from you Qataris but only if the price is low enough to convince me not to drill in my own back yard". To achieve this end, the gas glut doesn't necessarily have to be there, they just have to say it's there.

[Adam1]

I suppose it comes down to whether the US finds any economic or political advantage in using externally sourced gas/oil.

Perhaps it's 'better' to burn another country's gas/oil whilst leaving yours in the ground?

All this news about the US gas glut actually puts them in a better negotiating position for closing gas deals with other countries. It's pretty handy to be able to say "Look, I'm willing to commit to buying a few bcma from you Qataris but only if the price is low enough to convince me not to drill in my own back yard". To achieve this end, the gas glut doesn't necessarily have to be there, they just have to say it's there.

They'd need to have all the infrastructure ready to turn the taps on at a few hours' notice. Not only would the resource have to be there but capital would have to have to have been employed in developing the resource. In that case, the investors would want some return on their financial investment.

[mcewena1]

Maybe I'm stupid but it was my understanding that in the USA they had pretty much drilled everywhere looking for oil. Wouldn't they have found this gas at the same time and made a note of it? Or are they now drilling at much greater depths

[fifthcolumn]

Maybe I'm stupid but it was my understanding that in the USA they had pretty much drilled everywhere looking for oil. Wouldn't they have found this gas at the same time and made a note of it? Or are they now drilling at much greater depths

No, what ihappened is that there was a lot of gas (like oil - e.g. shale oil) that is hard or impossible to get with current technology at the time.

Breakthroughs came especially in the form of horizontal drilling techniques that made this hitherto unrecoverable gas recoverable.


Shale oil is in the exact same category. Currently no technology exists to allow shale oil to be extracted profitably in either a financial or energy expended sense.

Tar Sands, however, are another matter. Recent breakthroughs have made tar sands percentage recoverable jump from 20% to 80%. So now instead of 270 billion barrels recoverable there is now over a billion barrels recoverable.

This would push off peak significantly if it were possible to scale up to several tens of millions of barrels per day. But it isn't. So instead what it will do is make sure there is always a floor level of oil being produced in North America. It's likely that the Americas (including Venezuela and Canada) will be producing a minimum of ten million barrels a day well into the lifetimes of our grandchildren.

Given that the Americas are half as efficient in their oil use as the Europeans and the current usage is a little bit less than 30 million barrels per day then if efficiency gets to European levels, there is around a 50% shortfall to maintain the current economy's energy inputs.

Europe and the rest of the world are in a much worse position.
Russia has some tar sands but not much. Europe has none. China has none. Japan has none.

[PS_RalphW]

The most optimistic quote I have ever seen for tar sands is 5 million barrels a day, in about 2020. The US uses (a little under) 20 million barrels a day, not 30. The US currently produces just over 5 million b/d - up since Thunderhorse finally came on line.

Being well past peak, the US mainland is already in the long tail. I am unaware of any plans to develop venezuela heavy (tar) oil, and it is unlikely to happen without a change of politics in that country. Their conventional production is well past peak and falling steadily.

Can you give a reference for the 80% recoverable figure? Are you talking about he toe and heel process?

The US could of course cut their consumption by 50% without too much pain, just by driving efficient vehicles and modest changes to infrastructure. However, they are showing even less political will than the UK to do anything about it, and that is quite an achievement!

[fifthcolumn]

The most optimistic quote I have ever seen for tar sands is 5 million barrels a day, in about 2020. The US uses (a little under) 20 million barrels a day, not 30. The US currently produces just over 5 million b/d - up since Thunderhorse finally came on line.

If you re-read my post you'll note I'm talking about the Americas. That includes South America. I'm not just talking about the USA.
If you go check, you will find that the Americas use just a little under 30 million barrels a day, with the US using most (a little over 20).
Between the Canadian Tar Sands and Venezuelan Heavy Resources, it's quite possible to get production up to ten million barrels since the Venezuelan production has been badly managed. That they will or not is a political question and the monroe doctrine still holds, in spite of russian warships visiting caracas. There is also the question of the undeveloped chingtepec fields in mexico.

Can you give a reference for the 80% recoverable figure? Are you talking about he toe and heel process?

The Thai process, yes.

The US could of course cut their consumption by 50% without too much pain, just by driving efficient vehicles and modest changes to infrastructure. However, they are showing even less political will than the UK to do anything about it, and that is quite an achievement!

True, but that's only because oil prices have dropped. As soon as they go up again, people will take fright. There is also a MUCH greater desire for hybrid vehicles, especially plug-in hybrids over here than there is back home. People back home are pointlessly arguing about the carbon footprint reductions of hybrids whereas over here they are talking about fuel economy and "getting off oil". That this is not mainstream is only a question of time. There is a significant minority have all the facts.

[ziggy12345]

There is also the question of the undeveloped chingtepec fields in mexico.

The Chicontepec field is very low permeability with wells producing on average 150 barrels per day. Even if all the rigs in Mexico were just drilling in this field alone the resulting production would not offset the decline in the Canterell field. Also the don't produce 150 bopd for very long and the recoverable have been exaggerated

More info

http://www.peakoil.net/files/Cantarell% ... roblem.pdf

Cheers

[DominicJ]

Panama just lurched economicaly right, the Chavez like communists are on the endangered list now the moneys running out

[fifthcolumn]

Panama just lurched economicaly right, the Chavez like communists are on the endangered list now the moneys running out

Venezuela is full of terrorists and the majority hang out in Orinoco.