Looks like we have a natural gas glut

[fifthcolumn]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1241045 ... wsj_gadgv1

18 years supply in this one discovery alone.
Combined with the other discoveries in Texas and elsewhere there is no shortage of supply for at least the next thirty years.

Seems that it's likely we'll see a lid on fuel prices at least in North America:
It's not too, too difficult to retrofit transport fleets to use natural gas.
Another alternative (but more expensive) would be to build gas to liquids plants.

So I think it's at least possible that the downslope of the peak oil curve (2015) might not be quite so catastrophic as we fear.

Anyway. I await the flames from the doomers.

[PS_RalphW]

I can't flame it because I can't read it. Link just returns a blank page.

As always with these reports, the questions to ask are how fast can we pump it, and at what price? The EROEI of unconventional gas keeps declining. I think the US does have plenty of reserves, if they are prepared to pay about three times as much for their energy. At that price, renewables, particularly wind, make a lot of sense (as does properly insulating your home....)

Won't help us much in the UK

[fifthcolumn]

I can't flame it because I can't read it. Link just returns a blank page.

Strange. It works fine for me. Anyway, here's the meat of it:

" CADDO PARISH, La. -- A massive natural-gas discovery here in northern Louisiana heralds a big shift in the nation's energy landscape. After an era of declining production, the U.S. is now swimming in natural gas.

Even conservative estimates suggest the Louisiana discovery -- known as the Haynesville Shale, for the dense rock formation that contains the gas -- could hold some 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That's the equivalent of 33 billion barrels of oil, or 18 years' worth of current U.S. oil production. Some industry executives think the field could be several times that size.

"There's no dry hole here," says Joan Dunlap, vice president of Petrohawk Energy Corp., standing beside a drilling rig near a former Shreveport amusement park.


Huge new fields also have been found in Texas, Arkansas and Pennsylvania. One industry-backed study estimates the U.S. has more than 2,200 trillion cubic feet of gas waiting to be pumped, enough to satisfy nearly 100 years of current U.S. natural-gas demand."

[ziggy12345]

Shale gas reservoirs are difficult to develop and the recovery rate is variable with low flow rates. The rock has low permeability and has to be fractures to allow decent flow rates and success is not guaranteed. If they are serious about these reservoirs, and I don't think there is a choice, then you need lots more wells that are much more expensive to drill and complete than usual but this is a trend worldwide with oil and gas development.

No shortage of supply rather a gap until the infrastructure catches up.

[PS_RalphW]

There is a glut of gas in the US. They have shut down 40% of their gas drilling rigs. Given the fast decline rate of these shale wells, there is a serious risk that in a year or two the glut will turn to shortage and another round of panic drilling is needed, with the price shooting up and choking off any economic recovery. Where have I heard that before?

The open market is lousy at predicting future requirements in these industries. OPEC has done much better with oil, preventing a complete price crash.

[Benubi]

So I think it's at least possible that the downslope of the peak oil curve (2015) might not be quite so catastrophic as we fear.

Aye. Well its very unlikely to play out how as expected in the mind of the average Doomer, if there is such a thing. By that I mean it may not be as catastrophic as typical Doomer fears or it could be worse. There are a lot of chaotic factors at play.

That there will be a forced scaling down of energy consumption is the important general trend for people to grasp. However, if there was a widespread awareness of the significance of PO it might make matters worse for all we know.

Even for individuals who do currently understand the general trend, that understanding affords little certainty about what the future might bring for them personally.

[RGR]

[quote="ziggy12345"]

[ziggy12345]

Shale gas resevoirs are difficult to devlop. This is correct. To drill shale you need to use oil based mud and the hole has a tendancy to collapse as its unconsolidated resulting in numerouse re-etry and abandoned wells.

Recovery rates are variable? Is this wrong? then all wells will have to produce the same. So this is correct

Low flow rates. Shale is low permiability so unless you fracture the rock massivly increase the flow area it will be low flow. Ok it can be high if its natually fractured

Success is not guarenteed? How can this be wrong? Name an oil company with 100% success rate in drilling.

I suggest you try getting out from behind your desk and taking a trip to the field to see what is really happening in the oil business instead of trying to make sence of the grabage that is spoon fed to you through your PC.

[RevdTess]

Ah well, the peace and quiet was good while it lasted!

[UndercoverElephant]

So I think it's at least possible that the downslope of the peak oil curve (2015) might not be quite so catastrophic as we fear.

Aye. Well its very unlikely to play out how as expected in the mind of the average Doomer, if there is such a thing. By that I mean it may not be as catastrophic as typical Doomer fears or it could be worse. There are a lot of chaotic factors at play.

Yes. As soon as it became clear that the sub-prime mortgage mess was going to take the banks down, peak-oilers had to start changing their beliefs about what was going to happen.

[RGR]

[quote="ziggy12345"]

[eatyourveg]

Good bye.

[RGR]

[quote="Tess"]

[Bozzio]

Ziggy...how rude. In the past year I have been on Marcellus drilling rigs, Bakken drilling rigs, Barnett drilling rigs, Devonian drilling rigs.

B*llocks. You've been at your pc stirring up trouble and pretending you are something you are not. How else would you have found the time to come on this forum so often.

[Adam1]

Ziggy...how rude. In the past year I have been on Marcellus drilling rigs, Bakken drilling rigs, Barnett drilling rigs, Devonian drilling rigs.

B*llocks. You've been at your pc stirring up trouble and pretending you are something you are not. How else would you have found the time to come on this forum so often.

The two aren't mutually exclusive of course; RGR could have been 'stirring up trouble' on the internet whilst located at a drilling rig!

Surely, whatever the exact technical details, this discovery does not rescue us from our self-made predicament. Even if the US is now awash with gas (to quote that energy guru Malcolm Wicks) all it would do is lull the country into a false sense that we can continue our current energy trajectory. This will only lead to a bigger, if later, fall. Plus, the last thing the atmosphere needs now is another source of emissions. If, on the other hand, this is another false dawn of energy plenty, the existing PO/CC predicament remains.

See...now I can't help myself