Swine Fever - any thoughts?

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 28 Apr 2009, 18:30

DominicJ wrote:I have vague memories of a mustard advert...

you called?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 28 Apr 2009, 22:32

Medics' provisional findings: VitD (via sunlight), of which most of us are desperately short, does a lot to prevent 'flu.

A Doctor wrote:A short while later, a group of scientists from UCLA published a remarkable paper in the prestigious journal, Nature. The UCLA group confirmed two other recent studies, showing that a naturally occurring steroid hormone - a hormone most of us take for granted - was, in effect, a potent antibiotic. Instead of directly killing bacteria and viruses, the steroid hormone under question increases the body's production of a remarkable class of proteins, called antimicrobial peptides. The 200 known antimicrobial peptides directly and rapidly destroy the cell walls of bacteria, fungi, and viruses, including the influenza virus, and play a key role in keeping the lungs free of infection. The steroid hormone that showed these remarkable antibiotic properties was plain old vitamin D.

All of the patients on my ward had been taking 2,000 units of vitamin D every day for several months or longer. Could that be the reason none of my patients caught the flu?

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 28 Apr 2009, 22:35

Last time i checked it was pretty sunny in Mexico

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 28 Apr 2009, 22:37

I can't figure out why 'swine flu' is killing people in Mexico, but everywhere else it is being described as 'mild illness'? Is this simply down to the numbers and as more people outside Mexico are diagnosed then it is likely that some will be fatal?

Secondly, I am still not convinced how much this is going to spread. (This is me being optimistic!) Whilst there have been a good few cases in other regions of the world, the numbers are low and it is hardly spreading exponentially yet...... is this just a matter of a few more days and we are likely to see the numbers take off?

Thirdly, it seems the WHO maybe on the brink of announcing level 5 as per their criteria of spreading human to human in a second country (USA). I am not so sure this is a fair representation of the level of the problem so far. We wouldn't want them to appear like Peter crying Wolf would we......

It just all seems a bit hyped to me. I hope to goodness I am right!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 28 Apr 2009, 22:38

I thought about that: perhaps, like our ancestors during the industrial revolution, economic circumstances mean many Mexicans are working long hours indoors.

Bozzio · Post by **Bozzio** » 28 Apr 2009, 22:51

snow hope wrote:I can't figure out why 'swine flu' is killing people in Mexico, but everywhere else it is being described as 'mild illness'? Is this simply down to the numbers and as more people outside Mexico are diagnosed then it is likely that some will be fatal?

Secondly, I am still not convinced how much this is going to spread. (This is me being optimistic!) Whilst there have been a good few cases in other regions of the world, the numbers are low and it is hardly spreading exponentially yet...... is this just a matter of a few more days and we are likely to see the numbers take off?

Thirdly, it seems the WHO maybe on the brink of announcing level 5 as per their criteria of spreading human to human in a second country (USA). I am not so sure this is a fair representation of the level of the problem so far. We wouldn't want them to appear like Peter crying Wolf would we......

It just all seems a bit hyped to me. I hope to goodness I am right!

I think you're right. Most of the cases in Mexico are not yet confirmed and swine flu has struck before notably in the US in 1976 which came to nothing.

Could this be a bit of carefully planned news designed to divert attention away from Obama's decision to release the torture memos from the Bush era. If allowed to run its course it could see people like Condoleeza Rice facing jail.

Just a thought.

contadino · Post by **contadino** » 29 Apr 2009, 06:07

Bozzio wrote:
snow hope wrote:I can't figure out why 'swine flu' is killing people in Mexico, but everywhere else it is being described as 'mild illness'? Is this simply down to the numbers and as more people outside Mexico are diagnosed then it is likely that some will be fatal?

Secondly, I am still not convinced how much this is going to spread. (This is me being optimistic!) Whilst there have been a good few cases in other regions of the world, the numbers are low and it is hardly spreading exponentially yet...... is this just a matter of a few more days and we are likely to see the numbers take off?

Thirdly, it seems the WHO maybe on the brink of announcing level 5 as per their criteria of spreading human to human in a second country (USA). I am not so sure this is a fair representation of the level of the problem so far. We wouldn't want them to appear like Peter crying Wolf would we......

It just all seems a bit hyped to me. I hope to goodness I am right!
I think you're right. Most of the cases in Mexico are not yet confirmed and swine flu has struck before notably in the US in 1976 which came to nothing.

Could this be a bit of carefully planned news designed to divert attention away from Obama's decision to release the torture memos from the Bush era. If allowed to run its course it could see people like Condoleeza Rice facing jail.

Just a thought.

...or maybe the WHO just trying to justify their predictions.

...or maybe the WHO being pressurised by governments of failing economies to give people something new to worry about, besides being hungry and homeless.

2 As and a B · Post by **2 As and a B** » 29 Apr 2009, 08:28

Some factoids from today's BBC radio news.

Mexico: 159 suspected swine flu deaths, 7 confirmed according to WHO-acceptable criteria (reduced from 20, don't know how many tested), virus has been spreading since early April with the first death two (or three?) weeks ago, some 1500 to 2000 under observation with suspected swine flu. Everywhere else: some people arriving back from holiday have a mild dose of flu, suspected to be swine flu, and treated.

My conclusion: A huge pool of disease has accumulated in Mexico due to slowness to realize there was an outbreak and, in part because of that slowness, lack of treatment. Mortality rate amongst untreated population is lowish; amongst treated, very low. So, at least for the UK...

R E L A X !

R E L A X !

R E L A X !

R E L A X !

...However, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic started off with a similarly mild form, and at the same time of year, and - more frighteningly - if the highly contagious Mexican swine flu mixes with the deadly H5N1 avian flu...

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 29 Apr 2009, 09:16

snow hope wrote:Secondly, I am still not convinced how much this is going to spread. (This is me being optimistic!) Whilst there have been a good few cases in other regions of the world, the numbers are low and it is hardly spreading exponentially yet...... is this just a matter of a few more days and we are likely to see the numbers take off?

Thats pretty much the criteria I'm using, if its bad, we'll see a lot more more by Monday, infected by those who were infected on holiday in Mexico before anyone knew about this, and a lot lot more by a week on Monday.

If we dont, it'll tail off

Re: The CIA memos
I'm not really sure if this can be "covered up", even the High Priests of the UK branch of Obamesiahism have been banging on about that being a stupid mistake by an inexperienced politician who is still convinced he's fighting an election campaign against Bush, their words, not mine.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 29 Apr 2009, 09:21

Watch this video from Dr Henry Niman - I am afraid I am more concerned now. The next 2 weeks will tell a lot.

http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 29 Apr 2009, 09:30

snow hope wrote:I can't figure out why 'swine flu' is killing people in Mexico, but everywhere else it is being described as 'mild illness'? Is this simply down to the numbers and as more people outside Mexico are diagnosed then it is likely that some will be fatal?

Bod on R4 last night said that if it is swine flu, then typically, the initial infection of people from swine tends to be more virulent than the secondary infection of people from people.

Alternatively, it could just be a time factor, or something else

Peter.

Edit: for a 'more' and 'something else'

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 29 Apr 2009, 11:13

snow hope wrote:Watch this video from Dr Henry Niman - I am afraid I am more concerned now. The next 2 weeks will tell a lot.

http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html

I hope against hope that he doesn't have a clue about his subject, because if he's right, I'm sitting in that virus' sights when it gets back from the southern hemisphere in Autumn......

From what he says it sounds like getting the virus early may be a bonus.... if that would mean you are immune to the recombinated/changed virus that could return in Autumn (which he didn't specify).

He also said that it's your own immune system that does for you. This made me wonder if it would be worth lowering your own immune system should you get the flu? I would imagine you could do this in a number of ways. A hard night on the booze, 40 fags, sleep deprivation and only crap food could be one way. - Jesus! Looks like it will miss chavs entirely!

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 29 Apr 2009, 11:41

From this side of Muir Éireann, there seems to be an excess of hype but little else. Flu kills all the time; other diseases kill even more! Cures often kill even more than that.

Eat a largely organic, plant-based diet, get plenty of fresh air and exercise and I guarantee that your time won't come until your number's up.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Apr 2009, 11:50

First US death reported on Sky News.

23 month old toddler in Texas.

This is actually good news (except for the toddler) because it is a datum in favour of normal flu mortality for this virus.

SILVERHARP2 · Post by **SILVERHARP2** » 29 Apr 2009, 12:09

RalphW wrote: This is actually good news (except for the toddler) because it is a datum in favour of normal flu mortality for this virus.

Can you expand on that , I didnt get your point.