Conservative party/opposition watch

[Potemkin Villager]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51687287


Sir Philip Rutnam said there had been a "vicious and orchestrated" campaign against him in Home Secretary Priti Patel's office.
Reported tensions between the pair included claims she mistreated officials - which she has denied.
The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg said Sir Philip's move was "highly unusual".
Our political editor added: "I can't remember a senior public official taking a step like this."
Sir Philip, who has had a career spanning 33 years, said he received allegations that Ms Patel's conduct towards employees included "shouting and swearing" and "belittling people".

Well this is really going to help with getting things done! I thought it might be 6 months before the Johnson project began to run aground but it looks as though things are getting banjaxed much faster than anticipated. We can now look forward to the Home Secretary digging herself and her boss into a bigger and bigger hole.

[Mark]

Two conservative MPs, Sir Nicholas Soames [grandson of Sir Winston Churchill] and Charlotte Lesley passed information about the Russian government contacts and business interests of party donor Mohamed Amersi to Conservative party chairman Ben Elliot. Amersi has now threatened Soames and Lesley with libel action, meanwhile and after being warned by the MPs, the Conservative Party accepted a further £50,000 donation from Amersi, making a total of more than £750,000 since 2017.

Mr Amersi donated £10,000 to each of the candidates in the last leadership election. Only Rory Stewart declined the donation, the other three candidates, including BoJo accepted.

Story in the Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/5dab0a3e-687 ... c999d4321f

[Mark]

North Sea Donors Gave Tories £420k as Government Considered Oil Industry’s Fate:
https://www.desmog.com/2021/06/24/north ... trys-fate/

Research carried out by environmental investigations group DeSmog has found that a handful of individuals and companies linked to the oil and gas industry donated at least £419,000 to the Conservatives in the past year. This comes just months after the Tory government signed off on new controversial licences to explore the North Sea for fossil fuel production sites.

Some of the donors deny claims of foul play....., but these donations are yet more signs of government corruption.....

[PS_RalphW]

The Observer reports that Labour have a 9 point opinion poll lead over the tories, Johnson has a - 35% personal rating and 57% of the poll think he should resign over the Christmas party story. The lib dems are hopeful of winning Thursdays byelection in Shropshire, and that might tip the backbenchers into open rebellion. God knows who we would net as a replacement pm.

[clv101]

I think we will have new PM by spring, and Sunak is most likely... but I don't think it'll work. I think (hope?) the Tories are now in decline and as the covid enquiry gets underway and the economic damage of the pandemic, Brexit and energy crisis hits I don't see them wining the next election - what new/change etc can they offer?

[UndercoverElephant]

I can't see the tories putting Sunak in Number 10. He's too inexperienced. Jeremy Hunt is the man, I think.

[dustiswhatweare]

Put that there Liz Truss in charge. It's wrong, just wrong, I know that, but doing so would guarantee a Tory defeat at the next election.

I am just so tired with having these third raters in positions of power, and then witnessing the inevitable utterly predictable and depressing results.

[Mark]

The current runners & riders....
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ive-leader

The Bookies have Rishi Sunak as favourite (9/4), followed by Liz Truss (9/2) and Michael Gove (7/1)
Jeremy Hunt (10/1) is probably their least offensive, but is he just the Tory equivalent to Keir Starmer ?
Unbelievably, Priti Patel is only 25-1, Jacob Rees-Mogg & Matt Hancock are 66-1...
What a shower....

[PS_RalphW]

Lib Dems claim they will win the Shropshire by election comfortably. Johnson"s days as pm are numbered.

[clv101]

Wow, that was quite a result for the Lib Dems! A rock solid Tory seat forever went Lib Dem with the 7th biggest swing in electoral history, overturned a 23k majority to a almost 6k LD majority. ...and this was a leave seat!

Also worth noting this by-election was totally unnecessary, Patterson's 30-day suspension would be just coming to an end now had had and Johnson just accepted it instead of trying to change the rules.

Lots of messages in this result, Labour supporters have shown willingness to vote LD to oust a Tory. There are more than a dozen seats were LD are 2nd to Tories with less than 5% margin.

Leaves Johnson in a very weak position in the party - he's not popular within party, doesn't have a solid base of 'Johnsonites', doesn't have a solid policy base, they tolerate him due to his electoral appeal/success with the public but if that's gone, he doesn't have much to offer party!

[UndercoverElephant]

Yeah, beginning of the end for Johnson. This will cause panic in the tory party. If Johnson remains in charge, Starmer will win the next election simply by being the one who knows how to stay the right side of the law.

[Mark]

Yeah, beginning of the end for Johnson. This will cause panic in the tory party. If Johnson remains in charge, Starmer will win the next election simply by being the one who knows how to stay the right side of the law.

Not sure that's the conclusion, UE - the Tories have a very long history of coming back from the dead....
Boris was useful to them for Brexit, but if he's now seen as a liability, they'll have a coup and a brand new leader by the next election...
All the sins of the past will be attributed to Boris and the Party will have 'learned lessons' and 'changed'...
Wouldn't be surprised to see North Shropshire return to being Tory...
We've seen it all too many times before....

Plus, I don't see a great swell of support for the 'invisible' Starmer.
At this stage, I predict either a small Tory majority, or a Lab/LD coalition, with the SNP holding the trump card....

[PS_RalphW]

There is going to be a lot of economic pain in the next 2 years as a combination of brexit, covid and structurally high energy prices puts us in another round of austerity, service cuts and rising crime from rising destitution. A right wing conservative party is not going to tax its way out of this one and will probably revert to stamping down on crime as a cover for increasingly authoritarian and anti-democratic control. I see the electoral roll shrinking by several million and turnout in the poorer and destitute demographic collapsing.

[Vortex2]

Michael Gove certainly has the required intellect ... shame about the other aspects of his personality ...

[PS_RalphW]

The civil servant put in charge of the no 10 lockdown breaking parties inquiry has quit the role after it was revealed he attended a no 10 lockdown breaking party