o Nuclear generation fell by 118TWh in 2022, to a total of 579TWh. France was responsible for 69% of the decline (-82TWh) as the country battled maintenance delays and corrosion issues at a number of reactors, with output in the country falling to its lowest level since the late 1980s. However, Germany accounted for 27% of the fall (-32TWh) due to the closure of three reactors at the end of 2021.
o Southern Europe also faced significant hydropower problems in 2022, with Italy, Spain and France all reporting below average hydro reservoir levels for the majority of the year. The total reduction in hydropower output amounted to 64TWh in 2022, and that excludes the reduction that was also recorded in Norway.
o The decrease in hydropower alone (-64TWh) more than outweighed the increase reported for solar and wind in 2022 (+59TWh).
o This helps to explain why gas generation failed to decline despite the eye-wateringly high gas prices seen throughout the year. A total of 436TWh of gas generation was produced, representing a 4TWh increase vs. 2021. This is something we predicted back in June when we stated that the loss of nuclear output in 2023 would mean that “renewable generation growth is unable to reduce gas demand in the power sector”.
o Coal (+10TWh) and lignite (+15TWh) partially helped to fill the shortfall, with generation from both sources reaching their highest annual values since 2018 despite the closure of a significant amount of capacity over the past four years. Phase-out delays were seen throughout the year as governments attempted to respond to the crisis.
o Net imports increased slightly, driven overwhelmingly by a GB switch from net importer in 2021 to net exporter in 2022. Net imports from Russia and Norway both declined.
o EU demand fell by around 4% year on year. Difficult to say with confidence how much of this was due to the weather and how much to the high price environment.