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UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland
Summary by Ground News
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he has agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security. Johnson pledges to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.

Effing marvellous.

Wannabee Churchill has now setup the UK for war with Russia if Putin gets cheeky.

Vortex2 wrote: ↑11 May 2022, 14:06

UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland
Summary by Ground News
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he has agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security. Johnson pledges to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.

Effing marvellous.

Wannabee Churchill has now setup the UK for war with Russia if Putin gets cheeky.

I consider that our government have acted honourably and correctly in this matter.
Both Sweden and Finland have announced that they intend to join NATO.
I doubt that Russia will attack them once they are full NATO members since an attack on one NATO member is considered as an attack on all. Russia will therefore have a relatively narrow window of opportunity in which to invade or annex Finland and/or Norway before they become full members.

A full scale invasion seems a bit unlikely in view of the lack of success in Ukraine. I expect a lot of Russian backed activity in both Finland and Sweden to object to NATO membership, and calling for cooperation with russia.

Vortex2 wrote: ↑11 May 2022, 14:06

UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland
Summary by Ground News
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he has agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security. Johnson pledges to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.

Effing marvellous.

Wannabee Churchill has now setup the UK for war with Russia if Putin gets cheeky.

Finland and Sweden are members of the EU and so would receive military support from the EU if invaded. We would probably come to the aid of our friends in Europe in that event so a direct agreement with those two countries doesn't make a lot of difference. They will be members of NATO before Christmas and Putin isn't going to be in any shape to attack them in that time frame anyway.

I read that the Belorussian troops are responding to the build up of NATO forces on their border as well as a grouping of about 20,000 Ukrainian forces on the border placed there in case the Russians come back. It is also unlikely that the Belorussian troops would invade their neighbour as the Belorussian people are even more friendly with Ukraine than the Russians are. Lukashenko didn't get involved initially because he didn't think his troops would fight and might even turn on him.

adam2 wrote: ↑11 May 2022, 19:45

Vortex2 wrote: ↑11 May 2022, 14:06

UK strikes new security agreement with Sweden and Finland
Summary by Ground News
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says he has agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security. Johnson pledges to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.

Effing marvellous.

Wannabee Churchill has now setup the UK for war with Russia if Putin gets cheeky.

I consider that our government have acted honourably and correctly in this matter.
Both Sweden and Finland have announced that they intend to join NATO.
I doubt that Russia will attack them once they are full NATO members since an attack on one NATO member is considered as an attack on all. Russia will therefore have a relatively narrow window of opportunity in which to invade or annex Finland and/or Norway before they become full members.

That window has already effectively closed. Russia can't just casually invade Finland - it would take months if not years of preparation - much longer than it would take to fast-track Finnish membership if necessary.

There are suggestions that Russia may shut NG pipeline to Finland tomorrow, in retaliation for declaration of application to Nato.

How much gas does Finland import?

Edit

NG is less than 5% of Finland's primary energy consumption, all from Russia. Finland has already stated they would stop Russian imports this year. They have LNG terminals so can buy on the open market. Any embargo from Russia should have limited economic impact.

NG is trading up today, after falling back to 130 for the first time in 6 months


This post and those preceding this post have been split by adam2 from the Ukraine watch thread, as I felt that this now deserved its own thread.

TV news reports this evening state that russia will cease electricity exports from russia and into Finland in a few hours time.
It was reported that Finland obtains about 10% of their electricity from russia, not clear if they meant 10% of average annual use, or 10% of peak demand.

Finland can hopefully obtain electricity from free countries to the west. This may however add to general tightness in the electricity market throughout Europe.

If russian gas supplies are cut of as has been threatened, the Finland will have limited short term options to increase electricity production within their own territory.

In the medium term, IMHO Finland needs an urgent program to install more wind turbines and more PV. The inherently variable supply from these sources is of little consequence for Finland.
They already have considerable hydroelectric generating capacity, and every extra GWH generated from PV or wind is a corresponding reduction in energy from hydroelectric plant. That in turn means more water left in the reservoirs for later use in calm weather or limited sunlight.

Finland has a very high electricity consumption per capita if compared to other countries, a lot of electric heating in homes.

Finland are nearly finished building a couple of really big EPR reactors, they'll be self sufficient in generation then.

Rolls Royce are working on some sort of baby modular nuclear reactor, the idea being it can be installed quickly and manufactured as a standard product rather than as a bespoke design. Looks like customers are starting to pop up...

I think Finland has made the right choice and Sweden will probably do also.

The Olikuuto (I don't think that spelling is correct) nuclear power plant is supposed to go online this year but being an EPR dates are somewhat 'flexible'.

A good movie called something like "Into Eternity" on how Finland is going to build its nuclear waste dump and make it so that someone in 10,000 years time doesn't want to rob it, or at least understands the dangers involved.

The a few YouTube videos showing Finn's total deadpan humour like "Hydraulic Press Channel" should be viewed.

Russia has now cut off electricity supplies to Finland.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12446050
This not expected to have any serious consequences as imports from Russia were a small part of the total electrical demand.

2000 MW of wind turbines are already under construction, and I expect that more is planned.

The utility has warned domestic natural gas consumers in parts of Finland to "be prepared" for any interruption in natural gas supplies to parts of the country.
Consumers are urged to ensure that wood burning stoves and fire places are in good working order and that fuel is to hand.

If I have understood correctly, Finland is 100% reliant on russia for natural gas, but this is far less serious than it sounds because natural gas is not used on a large scale and makes up only about 5% of total energy used.

Domestic heating is primarily from electricity or wood, with only a few thousand homes heated by gas. Larger premises use mainly electricity, and a minority use "black liquor" a by product that results from turning trees into wood pulp for paper manufacture.

Finland has a very high electricity use per head, but a low consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12444751

Finland has formally anounced that they will apply for NATO membership.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61441664

Russia has now cut of natural gas to Finland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61524933

AFAIK, almost all of the natural gas used in Finland is or was from russia, but gas is a small part of total Finnish energy used. Electricity is more widely used.

Turkey withdraws opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61960122

Hopefully they can now join without delay. I have a fear that putin might start military action against Finland BEFORE they join, and therefore BEFORE they are protected by NATO membership.