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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Basic arithmetic shows that a Trump victory is still possible, but is becoming less likely.

TV news suggests that many businesses in the USA fear rioting and looting and are therefore boarding up shops etc.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:Trump has demanded a recount and I do not blame him. This election was rigged in every way, from the mainstream media campaign to the postal voting bullshit.
If you believe Trump's claims that the election was rigged then you really have lost the plot.
If are implying that the globalist flank of the Western capitalist ruling class have not done literally everything in their power to enact what functionally amounts to a coup in the legislatures of both the US and UK over the course of the last 4 years, then you are either as thick as pigshit or a liar.

I'm going with liar.
You are insane.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote: If you believe Trump's claims that the election was rigged then you really have lost the plot.
If are implying that the globalist flank of the Western capitalist ruling class have not done literally everything in their power to enact what functionally amounts to a coup in the legislatures of both the US and UK over the course of the last 4 years, then you are either as thick as pigshit or a liar.

I'm going with liar.
You are insane.
:lol:
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

Little John wrote:If are implying that the globalist flank of the Western capitalist ruling class have not done literally everything in their power to enact what functionally amounts to a coup in the legislatures of both the US and UK over the course of the last 4 years, then you are either as thick as pigshit or a liar.

I'm going with liar.
Nobody has played dirtier than Trump.
No leader of the US/UK has lied more than Trump has.
No US/UK leader has over-ridden the legal checks and balances more than Trump has.
boisdevie
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Post by boisdevie »

Mark wrote: Nobody has played dirtier than Trump.
No leader of the US/UK has lied more than Trump has.
No US/UK leader has over-ridden the legal checks and balances more than Trump has.
Nice assertions pal. But I'm old fashioned and like evidence.
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careful_eugene
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Post by careful_eugene »

boisdevie wrote:
Mark wrote: Nobody has played dirtier than Trump.
No leader of the US/UK has lied more than Trump has.
No US/UK leader has over-ridden the legal checks and balances more than Trump has.
Nice assertions pal. But I'm old fashioned and like evidence.
Evidence of lies should be fairly easy to establish https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_ ... nald_Trump
For overriding or attempting to override legal checks and balances I suggest you look at the experiences of Kirstjen Nielsen while she was secretary of homeland security.
For playing dirty read the transcript of Michael Cohen to the US House of representatives in 2019.
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eatyourveg
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Post by eatyourveg »

The amazing thing about this election has to be that so many Americans want to be led by Trump, a malevolent, not very bright 12 year old in a mans body. What goes on in their psychies?
"Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". Douglas Bader.
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Catweazle
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Post by Catweazle »

eatyourveg wrote:The amazing thing about this election has to be that so many Americans want to be led by Trump, a malevolent, not very bright 12 year old in a mans body. What goes on in their psychies?
This has been puzzling me for years, to believe the constant conspiracy rants takes a special kind of stupid.
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

Catweazle wrote:This has been puzzling me for years, to believe the constant conspiracy rants takes a special kind of stupid.
For it to be slightly under half of the population is even more amazing.

Trump's been saying that he's won close-run states where the votes haven’t even been fully counted yet.
Anybody who knows even a tiny amount of history understands that's how dictators take over.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

It is in my view correct to announce the result of an election BEFORE all the ballots have been counted, but only in certain circumstances.

If after most of the ballots have been counted, one candidate has a large enough majority, that even if all the yet to be counted votes go against them they will still have a majority, then victory may be announced.

Example.
100,000 votes are estimated to have been cast.
96,000 of these have been counted.
50,050 are for "A" and 45,950 are for "B"

It would be reasonable to announce that "A" has won, since even if every yet to be counted vote is for B, then A will still have a majority.

It MIGHT be reasonable to announce the result before every ballot has been counted, if one candidate has a majority such that a most improbable proportion of the yet to be counted ballots would have to be for the other one.
Example.
100,000 votes are estimated to have been cast.
96,000 have been counted.
49,500 are for A.
46,500 are for B.
It would be reasonable to FORECAST but not to state as an absolute certainty, that A has won since A only needs 501 votes out of the yet to be counted 4,000 ballots. And judging by the already counted votes, A is likely to win over 2,000 of the yet to be counted votes.
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

The online voting maps are fascinating showing blue mostly in urban areas and deep red out in the woop woops. Randomly searching the highest concentration of Trumpers found in one county was 80%! Snowedin's part of the world seems very blue indeed apart from Essex County for some reason. I wonder what goes on there?


Amazed at the huge number of folk who believe the sun shines out of Trump's arse. That is his toxic legacy.
The Stone Age represents 99.99% of mankind's existence on this planet. Francis Pryor
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

adam2 wrote:It is in my view correct to announce the result of an election BEFORE all the ballots have been counted, but only in certain circumstances.

If after most of the ballots have been counted, one candidate has a large enough majority, that even if all the yet to be counted votes go against them they will still have a majority, then victory may be announced.
Agreed - but that's not what Trump's doing.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Mark wrote:
adam2 wrote:It is in my view correct to announce the result of an election BEFORE all the ballots have been counted, but only in certain circumstances.

If after most of the ballots have been counted, one candidate has a large enough majority, that even if all the yet to be counted votes go against them they will still have a majority, then victory may be announced.
Agreed - but that's not what Trump's doing.
Yes, Trump seems to be counting defeats if by a small margin, as being a victory.

A Biden victory is now looking very likely, though NOT certain.

Biden needs another 17 electoral college votes in order to win.
Trumps need another 56 electoral college votes to win.
Therefore a Trump victory is still just about possible, but looks increasingly improbable.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
RevdTess
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Post by RevdTess »

Basically Biden needs Nevada and Arizona. He seems unlikely to win any of the others. Arizona looks somewhat comfortable, but the gap in Nevada is tiny with 100k votes still to count according to the BBC. If he does win it'll be by a hair's breadth.
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BritDownUnder
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Post by BritDownUnder »

boisdevie wrote:
Mark wrote: Nobody has played dirtier than Trump.
No leader of the US/UK has lied more than Trump has.
No US/UK leader has over-ridden the legal checks and balances more than Trump has.
Nice assertions pal. But I'm old fashioned and like evidence.
I am thinking of at least 3 previous presidents who were close to Trump.

Richard Nixon - "I am not a crook"
Bill Clinton - "I did not have sex with that woman....."
JFK - Mafia won him Illinois
errrrr.......

LBJ was just a vulgar as Trump but in private.
G'Day cobber!
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