This Is An Unprecedented Drop In Oil Demand

Post by **clv101** » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:34 pm

This Is An Unprecedented Drop In Oil Demand
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... il-demand/

"IHS Markit projects that Q1 2020 world oil demand will decline by 3.8 million barrels per day (BPD) from a year earlier. This represents a downward revision of 4.5 million BPD from estimates prior to the outbreak."

The oil market gives is the clearest signal to what's actually going on in the global economy. Goodbye, expensive oil, and this years exploration budget. Looks like 2019 was the all time peak.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:54 am

Certainly the Corona virus has crippled air travel and it's oil use for now but give it a year or so and the demand will reappear so this is a temporary thing.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:18 pm

Will the cruise ship market be hit long term by a die off of a large part of their client group, the elderly?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:30 pm

kenneal - lagger wrote:Will the cruise ship market be hit long term by a die off of a large part of their client group, the elderly?

The next six months will be a waste of time for them but after that I think it will get back to normal. The population healthy enough to enjoy cruises will not die at higher rates like those already in nursing homes etc.
Odd that the Caribbean resort hotels are pumping up their advertising which seems to me to be a complete waste of money at present. Cut your losses do maintenance and be ready to resume once the panic subsides.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:23 pm

Oil price falling off a cliff today, down 8% at present

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:54 pm

PS_RalphW wrote:Oil price falling off a cliff today, down 8% at present

Cruise ships use about 40 gallons per mile traveled while 747s use 5 gallons per mile. tied up at the dock or parked at the airport they don't use any. No paying customers equals no trip equals less fuel demand equals lower oil price.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:11 am

Sydney airport was very quiet the two times I passed through it this year returning from a project in New Zealand. Could be bad news for a lot of aviation businesses. Strangely the flight I was on was busy but there were very few queues at immigration. There was a person with lasting suit ready to treat any unfortunate traveller who went down with something.

On the bright side I did get my luggage first off the belt - almost unknown - and my wife was waiting for me in a near deserted arrival hall. Sydney road traffic was its usual busy self.