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Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:25 pm
by Little John
Emily Thornbury's car crash interview on Good Morning Britain ... 72324/?t=4

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:28 pm
by UndercoverElephant
Little John wrote:Emily Thornbury's car crash interview on Good Morning Britain ... 72324/?t=4
She probably shouldn't be doing interviews about brexit.

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:24 am
by Lord Beria3

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:33 am
by UndercoverElephant
Lord Beria3 wrote: ... -education

Absolutely superb!
Was there a story there? I couldn't discern one. Corbyn looks tired? That's it?

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:42 am
by UndercoverElephant
It looks to me like the tory/BXP campaigns are both about to descend into total chaos over brexit. Seriously considering betting on a labour majority at 28-1.

Farage has stood his candidates down in tory-held constituencies, but not anywhere else. This is a senseless halfway house. It literally makes no sense. It is an admission that if the bxp stand in tory-held seats, it will split the vote. But that can only mean it will split the vote in all its target seats too. Farage still wants Johnson to stand down in some seats both the tories and bxp want to win off Labour, so the bxp wields some power after the election.

But the real problem is Johnson's announcement that there will be no extension to the transition period and that he will negotiate a Canada-style free trade agreement by this time next year. ALmost everybody agrees this is completely impossible (because it will take a minimum of five years). In effect this sets up a new cliff-edge no deal, with no way out.

Put these things together and Johnson and Farage have got big problems. If Farage does not stand down his other candidates then the leave vote will indeed be hopelessly split in all the tory target seats. But if does stand down then the tories effectively turn into the brexit party, and they'll lose all the support that has gone back to them since no deal was taken off the table.

When the nature of these problems becomes clear, as must happen in the coming days because Farage needs to make a decision on where to stand bxp candidates, the tory campaign will collapse.

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:04 pm
by Lord Beria3
Eurointeligence latest...
Farage's real impact

We have been leaning out of the window with our confident assertion that the Tories have a strong lead in the UK elections. That can obviously only be a statement of the situation right now - not a prediction of what will happen in five weeks. The latest YouGov poll has the Tories at 42% and Labour at 28%. That would give the Tories a very large majority. The poll is the first under a new methodology that accounts of the fact that the Brexit Party is no longer campaigning in 317 seats. 

We cannot rule out that YouGov may have to change its questions yet again. Nigel Farage is coming under pressure from his main sponsor, Arron Banks, to drop out of the race in the crucial marginal seats in Wales, the Midlands and the North, in order to avoid splitting the Leave vote. We think this is probably not necessary as the overall poll rating of the Brexit Party has now plummeted. 

The best thing to read this morning is Tom Clark's analysis in Prospect. He points to the asymmetry that has arisen after Farage made his move. The incumbent Tory candidates will now be very hard to dislodge, while Farage's continued presence in Labour-supporting seats has an ambiguous effect. He may get more votes from Labour than from the Tories, or he may split the Leave vote. We simply don't know. Nor do we know whether that will be critical one way or the other. 

The Remain alliance between the LibDems, the Greens and Plaid Cymru in some seats is not going to be a sufficient counterweight. And there are no signs yet of Labour agreeing to being co-opted into this project. Time is running short. Nominations close this Thursday. Clark is hopeful that a pact might still happen. Even an imperfect pact could be efficient, he argues. We agree with him on that, but we do not see rivals coming together in a broader electoral alliance. This is the thing about Brexit: it is not really about Europe. It is a tribal fight. Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson are from different tribes.

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:40 pm
by Lord Beria3
Ue ha ha good luck with the betting!

I've only betted on the Scottish Tories and I'm done!

Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:43 pm
by Lord Beria3 ... -election/

Interesting podcast.

Mixed signals for both parties.

Species make a good point that evidence is not strong of a major rory surge in labour areas. Patchy progress at best.

Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:50 pm
by Lord Beria3

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:49 am
by UndercoverElephant
Lord Beria3 wrote: ... ed-himself

Absolutely hilarious!
Yes, the brexit party is heading right back to where UKIP was during the 2017 election. And the libdems are heading back to where they respectively were too.

This election is going to be 2017 all over again, apart from the intervening two and a half years of brexit and the fact that a bunch of old voters has died and been replaced by teenagers.

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:44 pm
by fuzzy
can this focus the mind? [hint: we invented this stuff, and 'free agents' ie tories sold this to other places:]

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:48 pm
by UndercoverElephant
fuzzy wrote:You sound way too excited UE. Why the obsession with the pretend labour party?
Don't understand the question.

I'm excited because this election is like no previous election since I started following politics nearly 40 years ago. There's a real chance of the establishment suffering a setback of historic proportions. There is nothing pretend about this Labour party. They are trying to supercede thatcherism.

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:39 pm
by fuzzy
And yet they still want endless Poles being subsidised by the EU [do your research] to take UK jobs..

Posted: Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:45 pm
by UndercoverElephant
fuzzy wrote:And yet they still want endless Poles being subsidised by the EU [do your research] to take UK jobs..
Some of them do. If their manifesto is pro-immigration they will get slaughtered in the lab-tory marginals which will decide this election. We need to see what makes it into the manifesto. Ignore the noise.

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:56 am
by Lord Beria3 ... -dem-surge

Tories clinging on... despite liberal surge.

Apparently polls looking better for the Tories even on Richmond. Even i thought this was a lost cause!

I suspect fear of a labour government is keeping soft Tory voters in these rich enclaves from going to the liberals.