Brexit process

[Lord Beria3]

Great news for the Tories in the south.

This could be a game changer.

[kenneal - lagger]

I'm not sure how West Berkshire will go. The local party was pro Brexit although our former MP, Richard Benyon, was a Remainer, but the constituency voted Remain. We have a new Conservative PPC, Laura Farris, a barrister and former political journalist who grew up and lives locally and is the daughter of a former long serving MP, Sir Michael McNair-Wilson. I don't know where she stands on anything at the moment but the local environmental group which I help run is running a hustings for all the candidates at the end of the month so hopefully I will know a bit more by then.

The former MP had a majority over the LibDems of over 20k at the last election so, with the local Remain vote, I'm not sure where the voting will go. There is a Brexit Party nomination and Labour as well. The Tories lost a few seats on the District council at the last elections but they are still well in control. With the same MP I would have said that he would win but with a smaller majority. The last time the Tories switched candidates, although to someone from outside the constituency, they lost heavily. With a local person this time they might just hold it. Just!

[PS_RalphW]

The Brexit party has been declining steadily in the polls since Johnson was elected. Assuming this trend continued for a few more weeks, then the party would have been competing with the Greens for national significance.

With the two main parties being as far apart as any I can remember in my lifetime, and the electorate more internet connected than ever, this is going to be the most tactical and unpredictable election ever.

This result will make my local constituency more likely to remain Tory, but I expect nationally that is exceptional.

[UndercoverElephant]

Look at the main graph on this page, and it shows us something interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Not just the current position of the lines, but look where the individual dots are heading. Brexit Party is now back where it started, and today's news will accelerate its plunge into irrelevance. At the same time, the libdems are tanking, and Labour is surging.

I think we are heading back to the two-party politics of 2017. The tories are likely to hit a ceiling at around the same level they polled at the last election, and Labour will eventually climb back to around their respective level at the last election too.

[Mark]

Look at the main graph on this page, and it shows us something interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Not just the current position of the lines, but look where the individual dots are heading. Brexit Party is now back where it started, and today's news will accelerate its plunge into irrelevance. At the same time, the libdems are tanking, and Labour is surging.

I think we are heading back to the two-party politics of 2017. The tories are likely to hit a ceiling at around the same level they polled at the last election, and Labour will eventually climb back to around their respective level at the last election too.

Not sure I agree, but then what do I know ?
I was predicting a hung Parliament before the BXP news today.
Think this move will now swing the result to a small Tory majority....

Prepare for them to make the country worse for workers rights and the environment, push for privatisation of the NHS, undermine UK manufacturing, give everything up to Trump in a bum Trade Deal and make life even harder for the 'have nots' than 10 years of Thatcher...,
They'll be good for the Bankers, Oil Companies and tax evaders though....

[Lord Beria3]

Yup, I'm also taking the view that a small Tory majority looks like the likely eventual outcome, although outlier scenarios remain possible (big Tory majority or hung parliament).

The left-wing NS has an interesting take on the polls so far... (spoiler alert - not good news for those hoping for a Labour/Corbyn bounce!).

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/e ... al-ratings

But we do have one interesting change in the underlying figures – a rise in Boris Johnson’s popularity ratings, although it is perhaps more accurate to describe it as a reduction in his unpopularity. He started out the campaign with a historically bad popularity rating – he was less popular than Nick Clegg during the AV referendum, David Cameron during the Panama Papers, or Theresa May at the end of the 2017 election campaign. He is now about as popular (that is to say, his net approval rating flickers between minus five per cent to plus five per cent) as David Cameron was in 2015.

That’s not particularly surprising: when there is a gap between a leader’s approval ratings and the vote share of their political party, one of three things tends to happen: the two numbers meet in the middle, or one number falls or rises to meet the other. So far, there is nothing particularly unusual or noteworthy about the polls, but we have the big, potentially disruptive events like the televised debates and the manifesto launches to come.

In 2017 seeing Corbyn on the campaign trail transformed public perceptions of him and in turn saw a huge surge in Labour support (which UE is hoping again).

This time, it's Boris ratings which are improving which is a good sign for Tory prospects of a Tory majority.

Unless Corbyn does a 2017 again, which so far hasn't happened, it doesn't look terribly likely that the Labour vote will surge again.

However, as NS notes, we still have the debates and manifestos to come which could change the dial.

[woodburner]

So Farage has handed the UK to the EU, as the Brexit party is now not putting up candidates in the constituencies won by the tories at the last election. All that does is possibly avoid a Corbyn government, but it means the UK will stay in the EU, as many tory MPs are remainers. So much for democracy. Not to mention all the SNP MPs who will probably retain their seats.

[kenneal - lagger]

The Tory Arch Remainers have all gone now. The rest of the Remainers will do what is good for the party and that is leaving the EU.

[Lord Beria3]

Precisely.

A Tory majority = leaving the EU in early 2020.

[clv101]

What was Farage's price for stepping aside? A peerage upon leaving European parliament?

[Little John]

Or maybe he just wants to see Brexit happen and has calculated this is his best next move.

[RevdTess]

Look at the main graph on this page, and it shows us something interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

What's clear from that chart is how much the BXP and Tories vote share mirror each other, and likewise the Labour and LibDem vote shares are a mirror of each other.

So it looks like the BXP took very little from the Labour vote. Instead it's the LibDems who are competing with Labour for votes. I think the main hope for Labour is that Remainers realise that voting LibDem is a lost cause, and that the only (very slim) route to Remain now is via a Labour minority government. If the LibDems drift back below 10% then Labour might have a chance. Otherwise Johnson seems to have reached that happy political state where, like Trump, he can do no wrong as far as his supporters are concerned. Well, it'll be interesting to see if he can get a good trade deal with the EU without regulatory alignment. If he can then fair play. Then it's game on for the inevitable conflict with the Scottish Parliament over indyref2.

My friend who was the BXP candidate in a Tory seat has been stood down. I am waiting to see if he also stops attacking Johnson and his deal, which he was doing vigorously until today.

[Little John]

You are literally clueless about the North aren't you

[RevdTess]

You are literally clueless about the North aren't you

I am literally from the North.

[Little John]

Then what the F--k do you think you are talking about? You are not Northern working class, that's for sure. Or, if you ever were, you left it behind long ago.