Brexit process

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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

PS_RalphW wrote:US congress threatens to block any US/UK trade deal if a hard border is
imposed between north and south Ireland

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... cians-warn
The UK isn't going to build that border, under any circumstances. Can the US blame the UK if the EU chooses to build one? Seems a bit unreasonable.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

They don't care why the border is is built, or by who. 'Irish' Americans are a large voting block in many swing states. The congress would want to be seen to be 'doing something' about the hard border, even if it is not a logical consequence. More importantly, it is a shot across the bows for Johnson, if he is not stone deaf.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Latest yougov poll has Tories making small further gains, and a chance of an overall majority at an election.

Looks like Johnson's gamble has a chance of succeeding. Other polls disagree.

BTW, those leavers who quoted uncontrolled immigration as their main driver for voting are going to be very disappointed.

Johnson has already said all resident EU nationals can remain indefinitely, and i s planning to expand non-EU immigration and abandon immigration control targets.
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Post by stumuz1 »

PS_RalphW wrote: BTW, those leavers who quoted uncontrolled immigration as their main driver for voting are going to be very disappointed.

Johnson has already said all resident EU nationals can remain indefinitely, and i s planning to expand non-EU immigration and abandon immigration control targets.
A bit disingenuous there Ralph, Bojo has said unskilled migration will stop by adopting an Australian points based system.

It was the unskilled immigration that caused the social unrest, and thus Brexit, but was largely ignored by politicians at the behest of the CBI etc.

Large scale immigration in a short period of time has always caused problems in any country that has experienced it.

Trump, Farage, Le Pen, Salvini are all copying Dennis Kearney.

Never heard of Dennis Kearney?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmdxYTyrI-E
Little John
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Post by Little John »

PS_RalphW wrote:...those leavers who quoted uncontrolled immigration as their main driver for voting are going to be very disappointed.

Johnson has already said all resident EU nationals can remain indefinitely, and i s planning to expand non-EU immigration and abandon immigration control targets.
More slanderous as well as demonstrably inaccurate bullshit I see.

But, then, this is no less than we have all come to expect from antidemocratic Remainers.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

cubes wrote:If there is a general election before 31 Oct then the labour rebels (leaver supporting MPs) are screwed no matter what they do imo. They will all lose their seats to brexit party candidates, they're still labour no matter what they do and the pro-brexit majority in their constituencies (which I assume is one of the reasons they have this stance in the first place) will vote brexit party as they're more assured of brexit that way.

Brexit party to get 40ish MPs. Labour to gain a few MPs overall. Tories to lose 70-90MPs with the balance of seats from that (30 or so) shifting to the lib dems who will poll well but not have concentrated support to really gain the MPs they should for the %age. An interesting parliament with, unfortunately, Corbyn as PM for a few months before his coalition falls apart and we do this all over again. God only knows what the result would be that time.
If the Labour MPs promise to support Leave that could split the Brexit vote and IlLib AntiDems could get in. There might be some Remainer Tory MPs chucked out by their local party for a Brexit candidate and I don't suppose conservative Head Office will object to that so numbers will not be certain until after the election. The Brexit Party will have to be very careful where they put up candidates to make sure that they don't split the vote to Remain advantage.
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cubes
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Post by cubes »

True. Depends on whether the remainer tory MPs are put up by their local parties.

I'm not really convinced that Nigel wants to let any seat go although he may relent for the most hardline brexiteers.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

The problem with immigration is that the UK economy is addicted to growth because of the banking system paying and charging interest and that growth is fostered and reliant upon increasing population. Until we can remove corporate lobbyists from Parliament and change the banking system stopping mass migration is going to be a major problem for whoever is in power and going zero carbon will be equally impossible for the same reason.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

cubes wrote:True. Depends on whether the remainer tory MPs are put up by their local parties.

I'm not really convinced that Nigel wants to let any seat go although he may relent for the most hardline brexiteers.
Farage quite rightly does not trust the tories - ANY tories. The problem is that we don't know how many of them would really rebel to stop no deal, because most of them will not admit it unless they feel they have no choice. I suspect that if the tories had a majority of 30, then sufficient tory anti-no-dealers would crawl out of the woodwork to stop no deal.

The brexit party has two selling points: it is unquestionably committed to brexit at any cost, including no deal, and it is not the conservative party.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

It being reported that there are sixty Tory MP's who will vote down a modified WA even if the Irish backstop is removed.

If true, good. It should be voted down. The Irish backstop is just the worst aspect of a new treaty (because that is what it really is) that is full of Brino hidden in its details.

A new trade deal that does not allow undemocratic interference in this nations sovereignty or WTO. That is what is required. This is not complicated, at heart and it never has been.
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Latest IPSOS poll has Brexit vote imploding, and Johnson sustaining the 10% lead over Labour. The net result is that in addition to the Brexit party getting just one seat, Tories are reclaiming seats that recently looked likely to fall to the LD. Johnson must be over the moon.


Won't save the Brecon by-election today.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

PS_RalphW wrote:Latest IPSOS poll has Brexit vote imploding, and Johnson sustaining the 10% lead over Labour. The net result is that in addition to the Brexit party getting just one seat, Tories are reclaiming seats that recently looked likely to fall to the LD. Johnson must be over the moon.


Won't save the Brecon by-election today.
I still don't think it will win him the election either. I am just hoping it is called before it becomes clear that this lead is not going to be sustained. I want the bait to be taken when it is still fresh and juicy.
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

kenneal - lagger wrote:The problem with immigration is that the UK economy is addicted to growth because of the banking system paying and charging interest and that growth is fostered and reliant upon increasing population. Until we can remove corporate lobbyists from Parliament and change the banking system stopping mass migration is going to be a major problem for whoever is in power and going zero carbon will be equally impossible for the same reason.
+1
Very difficult/impossible to do in a controlled manner though ?
Unless you have any suggestions ?
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frank_begbie
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Post by frank_begbie »

Anyone watched The Great Hack documentary?

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch ... 4544837840

Massive influences on elections.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQSMr-3G ... dex=2&t=0s

Democracy? :lol:
"In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated, and scorned. When his cause succeeds however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot."
Little John
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Post by Little John »

So, the Welsh bye-election shows that the Tories, if they want to win in a GE, must form a pact with the Brexit Party for either party to gain seats In this one just gone, they would have easily won if they had combined their votes and the seat could have gone to one or the other.
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