KSA Watch

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:25 am

The Saker website has posted a very interesting article that encapsulates the Saudi mindset

Gjassan Kadi: The Price of Bin Salman's Head

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:58 pm

I think the murder of Kashoggi will have a long lasting chilling effect on US and KSA relations. Regardless of the Trump administrations response American business interests will find it hard to justify doing any business (other then the oil industry) with a country where the rules of international law and commerce don't apply. This is happening just when KSA needs to diversify and move away from their almost total dependence on their oil exports.
I don't know what this guy did to make him worth killing but I expect it will cost KSA a trillion or two in lost opportunities and good will.
I find it hard to imagine what they were thinking as they set their plan in place.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:09 pm

I would imagine they were thinking that if the Yanks are happy to collude in the genocide of hundreds of thousands of Yemeni, they are hardly going to kick up a fuss over the killing of a single two bit reporter.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:30 am

vtsnowedin wrote: I find it hard to imagine what they were thinking as they set their plan in place.

They are pushing the envelope of 'world' i.e. western opinion to see what they can get away with. A bit like China building artificial islands in the South China Sea and Russia annexing Crimea and topping Litvinenko and the novochuck poisonings and Syria's use of objectionable weapons.

If it had happened in any other country except Turkey (and possibly a few Western capitals like Washington) they would have probably gotten away with it. Turkey, for its own geopolitical reasons raised a stink and rightly so.

Post by **adam2** » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:43 am

Two major oil industry facilities in Saudi Arabia have been set ablaze by drones.
The fires appear extensive. The authorities claim that the fires are now under control.
More details from news media of your choice.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:52 am

adam2 wrote:Two major oil industry facilities in Saudi Arabia have been set ablaze by drones.
The fires appear extensive. The authorities claim that the fires are now under control.
More details from news media of your choice.

Was going to post about this on the Yemen thread - it means that the war is at a stalemate. It was supposed to have been different - KSA and its coalition partners had overwhelming firepower.

More attacks like this will inflict increasing economic damage to KSA, along with increasing political dissent particularly within the Royal family.

The possibility of a coup against MBS is growing

Post by **adam2** » Sat Sep 14, 2019 5:52 pm

Later reports suggest that as much as 50% of KSA oil production is shut down by these attacks.
That, I think is about 5% of world production.

The fires are still burning.

Post by **clv101** » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:42 pm

adam2 wrote:Later reports suggest that as much as 50% of KSA oil production is shut down by these attacks.
That, I think is about 5% of world production.

The fires are still burning.

If this figure is accurate, and assuming it takes more than just a few days to fix, we can expect a significant $5-10 move on the oil market. Impressive example of asymmetrical warfare. Makes greater US (and likely UK) involvement more likely.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:31 pm

clv101 wrote: Makes greater US (and likely UK) involvement more likely.

NO

The genocidal war that has been waged against Yemen would have been impossible WITHOUT US and UK involvement from the get go.
This attack will only result in the UK and US putting pressure on KSA to cease hostilities. For the one obvious reason - this war is demonstrating that the balance of power has shifted irrevocably and that Western Power is in terminal decline in the region.

What use is all this "state of the art" Western military hardware if they cannot defend key infrastructure against a suicide drone squad emanating from the South?

Moon of Alabama: Attacks on Major Saudi oil Installations show the Need For Peace

Post by **adam2** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:49 am

We don't yet know what the results of this will be.
It seems prudent to fill up vehicle fuel tanks, and also heating oil tanks.

Consider also your supplies of LPG and paraffin, if you use these fuels, or might need supplies in any emergency.

Supplies of natural gas may also be affected. I do not expect much DIRECT impact on UK gas supplies since very little UK gas comes from KSA.
Any shortage would however have an indirect effect on the UK, perhaps as imports destined for us are diverted to other nations able/willing to pay more.
The very limited UK natural gas storage is a cause for concern under these circumstances.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:02 am

Natural gas must be almost interchangable. Oil is far less flexible. I would think that all refineries are run at near 100% capacity for cost reasons. They are also designed around grades of oil and cannot switch seamlessly except for equivalent grades. Expect whatever matches Ghawar to cost more. I can't see any problem for the UK, just some price rises. Maybe the gov could freeze the tax burden rather than gouging 20% VAT on any sudden price increase?

Post by **adam2** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:14 am

If crude oil increases in price by as much as 50% that still only takes the price to about $90, a figure regularly reached in the past.
I would not support any tax cuts under such circumstances.

If oil prices exceed about $150 then tax cuts might be justified.

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:34 am

adam2 wrote:We don't yet know what the results of this will be.
It seems prudent to fill up vehicle fuel tanks, and also heating oil tanks.

Consider also your supplies of LPG and paraffin, if you use these fuels, or might need supplies in any emergency.

Supplies of natural gas may also be affected. I do not expect much DIRECT impact on UK gas supplies since very little UK gas comes from KSA.
Any shortage would however have an indirect effect on the UK, perhaps as imports destined for us are diverted to other nations able/willing to pay more.
The very limited UK natural gas storage is a cause for concern under these circumstances.

Doesn't the UK import some of its LNG from Qatar?

AFAIK most of KSA's oil exports go to the Asian market nowadays so I wouldn't think there will be that much disruption in the UK at least.

As for oil prices - it remains to be seen whether there is a short term spike or if it trades at a higher range for a considerable length of time.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:39 pm

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... lants.html

DM reporting prices could spike to $100.

Post by **adam2** » Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:13 pm

If prices reach twice the present levels, would SA rush to repair the damaged facilities ?
Production has been about halved. but if the price is doubled, then the same revenue would result from half the sales.

If however production remains halved for an extended time, and prices DONT double, then SA faces a shortfall in revenue, with potential effects on the stability of the kingdom.