KSA Watch

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raspberry-blower
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KSA Watch

Post by raspberry-blower »

Following the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia the whole Middle Eastern political landscape faces an increasingly uncertain future.

First, a little bit of history from Robert Fisk: Saudi Arabia's history of hypocrisy we choose to ignore
Robert Fisk wrote:Hunter identified a “hate preacher” as the cause of this “terror”, a man inspired on a visit to Arabia by an ascetic Muslim called Abdul Wahab whose violent “Wahabi” followers had formed an alliance with – you guessed it – the House of Saud. Hunter’s 140-year-old volume The Indian Musalmans – given a dusting of internet race hatred, murderous attacks by individual Sunni Muslims, cruel Wahabi-style punishments and all-too familiar proof of second-class citizenship for Muslims in a European-run state – might have been written today.

Even before Hunter’s day, the Wahabis captured the holy cities of Arabia and – Isis-style – massacred their inhabitants. Like Isis, they even overran Syria. Their punishments, and those of their Saudi military supporters, make the public lashing of today’s Saudi blogger Raif Badawi appear a minor misdemeanour. Hypocrisy was a theme of Arabian as well as European history.
So the Wahabists have a long association with the Saudi royal family. No surprises there, then.

Next, who are the runners and riders to succeed King Abdullah? As posted by Emo on the Oil Price thread, here is Pepe Escobar's take on proceedings
Pepe Escobar wrote:So who’ll be next? The first in the line of succession should be Crown Prince Salman, 79, also defense minister. He was governor of Riyadh province for a hefty 48 years. It was this certified falcon who supervised the wealth of private “donations” to the Afghan mujahedeen in the 1980s jihad, in tandem with hardcore Wahhabi preachers. Salman’s sons include the governor of Medina, Prince Faisal. Needless to add, the Salman family controls virtually all of Saudi media.

To get to the Holy Grail Salman must be proven fit. That’s not a given; and on top of it Abdullah, a tough nut to crack, already survived two of his crown princes, Sultan and Nayef. Salman’s prospects look bleak; he has had spinal surgery, a stroke and may be suffering from – how appropriate - dementia.
So that casts a lot of doubt into the succession process being "smooth" - it'll be anything but.

There was a recent terrorist attack on a KSA army outpost in which a top Saudi general was killed. John Robb, at Global Guerillas, has this interesting piece
John Robb wrote:Saudi Arabia knows it is in trouble, that's why the Saudis are trying to buy influence in the west through a cheap oil policy (at the same time, a low price puts the hurt on US frackers and ISIS oil smugglers alike). However, ISIS trumped this effort with Charlie Hebdo. It will be difficult for the Saudis to convince the west they are the real target after the attack in Paris. Here's what this means:
•We're likely to see ISIS make a big push into Saudi Arabia this spring. This push may result in some very, very rapid gains by ISIS as Saudi troops melt away and/or join ISIS. The big question? If ISIS does gain a foothold: do the Saudi's accept foreign troops/airpower at the cost of their legitimacy, or do they go down fighting solo?


•The oil price dip we're currently experiencing will rapidly reverse as soon as it's clear that ISIS is gearing up a real jihad to retake Mecca and Medina. $150 a barrel or more by the end of the year, once this gets going (or much more as it puts all of the gulf aristos in full panic mode simultaneously).


•The rapid swing in oil price will plunge the perpetually stagnant western economies into a simultaneous rout. However, as bad as that will be, it will of little consequence compared to the damage the global financial system will do to us as hundreds of trillions of dollars in explosive financial derivatives topple the ziggurat of western debt we've so foolishly built
While I am unconvinced at this stage oil will reach $150 if such an attack occurred there will be a price spike (anyone remember a BBC docudrama aired over 10 years ago now - I think - that had a terrorist attack on Ras Tanura that resulted in an oil price spike that reached $75 which sent the derivatives market into meltdown? Times have changed, same potential scenario)

Meanwhile one thing to keep in mind is the changing state of its neighbours. Yemen, on its southern border, has seen its president deposed by Houthis - a Shia tribe who are friendly with Iran. It is the rise of a Shia crescent that the ruling Saudi Royal family fear most - remember most of the oilfields in KSA are in the East of the country - this area is predominantly Shia.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
AutomaticEarth
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Post by AutomaticEarth »

Why are we (the UK) flying flags at half-mast for the kings death?
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

The UK? Not in Scotland.
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Post by AutomaticEarth »

Well spotted Biff.

Just noticed that some Scottish Tory MP (Ruth Davidson) kicking off about the flag-lowering....
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

I doubt that the passing of the late King will have much near term effect. Power has passed to a close relative who holds very similar views to the late monarch and has vowed to continue as before.
There does not appear to be any significant doubt or debate as to whom should have succeeded the late King.

In the longer term I would be concerned at the consequences when all the very immediate family of the new King pass away.
That could lead to doubt, debate, argument and perhaps civil war over the succession.
Islamic state might well take power under such circumstances, and once they control so much oil and money, could be a much greater threat than at present.
Oil prices could then easily return to $150 IMHO.

As for flying flags at half mast, IMO we should not have done this.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Snail
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Post by Snail »

biffvernon wrote:Here's a very good piece:
http://www.energypost.eu/historic-momen ... on-bubble/
So Saudi Arabia is producing more now at a lower price because they're worried they won't be allowed to produce (or people prevented from buying) in the future? Decided by weird old Muslim men who don't seem too serious about giving Saudi Arabia some sort of non-oil dominant future?
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Don't underestimate the weird old Muslim men.

It doesn't take much to work out that one is better off selling stuff cheap than not selling it at all. It also doesn't take much to work out that one is better selling stuff as fast as possible if the market is going to vanish in the future. They tried climate denial in Copenhagen but it was just a delaying tactic. Arabs have been ahead of the game in science for centuries.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

biffvernon wrote:Don't underestimate the weird old Muslim men.

It doesn't take much to work out that one is better off selling stuff cheap than not selling it at all. It also doesn't take much to work out that one is better selling stuff as fast as possible if the market is going to vanish in the future. They tried climate denial in Copenhagen but it was just a delaying tactic. Arabs have been ahead of the game in the science for centuries.
The ancestors of today's Arabs were ahead in the science of their day many, many centuries ago.

That was long ago and so it is facetious to imply it has any relevance to their decision making today. Such decisions they do make that are based on science are based on largely western science and some from the far east.
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Apparently their scientific golden age came a cropper when the rest of us developed Printing. We could propagate knowledge faster, and cheaper, and the Arabic-speaking (writing) world didn't take to the printed word. So says Jim Al-Kalili, at any rate.

That was how Europe got The Renaissance, apparently.
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Snail
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Post by Snail »

I wonder why. Its like the middle east region, China, and India got to a certain stage/level of technology or science or way of seeing the world, and then lost interest.
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jonny2mad
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Post by jonny2mad »

Much of the arabic golden age is a myth, we used to have a thread basically disproving it on another forum I was involved in faithfreedom.org . They conquered lots of great civilsations translated their works into arabic and we got them .

You also have a whole industry of bigging up the achievements of islam, overall islam pushed people backwards.

Why do we have the flag at half mast, the same reason we get told islam is great and no danger by all our leaders, muslims have money and they control oil and they use this to push the islamisation of the world .

Some of our leaders are closet muslim, I think its very likely barrack hussein obama is, if they are not muslims they are fellow travellers, you also have cultural marxism in play where marxists have pretty much given up on economics and have put lots of effort into just destroying western civilisation .



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywNYoAgLzm4 if you have time watch this at least some of it .

look up what taqiyya muda'rat kitman hudnah mean
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AutomaticEarth
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Post by AutomaticEarth »

What we have today in Islamic Combustion.........my own term of course :P
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