Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

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fuzzy
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Post by fuzzy »

Exactly - if their models said it would grow exponentially, then their maths sucks. In any fixed area it will be a 'logistic curve' as the infection rate drops due to the weaker dying off, immunity, resistance, medicine and changed habits, being factors. Obviously it needs new slums if it is going to keep growing.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

Yes, but almost nobody knows what 'logistic curve' means and anyway the first part of a logistic curve looks very similar to exponential. We're still way down near the bottom start of the curve, whatever.
snow hope
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Post by snow hope »

Hopefully it will be more like a normal distribution curve.

It starts slowly, then has exponential growth, then growth slows down until zero growth, then decline starts slowly and then increases exponentially until it slows down and eventually stops.

Starts at zero and then returns to zero (eventually).

The normal distribution curve applies to an amazing amount of things in life....
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

then returns to zero (eventually)
There's some serious doubt about that. It could remain endemic, with sporadic outbreaks returning forever. There's not much known about the reservoir in wild animals. It seems that ~5% of bats may be infected but it's not certain whether this is the ultimate reservoir or whether the bats catch it from some other creature. The gorilla population has been utterly decimated in some areas.
Little John
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Post by Little John »

biffvernon wrote:
then returns to zero (eventually)
There's some serious doubt about that. It could remain endemic, with sporadic outbreaks returning forever. There's not much known about the reservoir in wild animals. It seems that ~5% of bats may be infected but it's not certain whether this is the ultimate reservoir or whether the bats catch it from some other creature. The gorilla population has been utterly decimated in some areas.
So long as humans do not move in to take over the ecological niche of the gorillas that have died, those that remain should relatively quickly refill it so long as their numbers and consequent genetic diversity is not perilously low.....

......which it may be.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

It is worrying in the light of the uncertain rate of spread in Sierra Leone


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... t-response

There does seem to be a lot of confusion over numbers. A lot of malaria or other similar deaths are being misdiagnosed, but there is good reason to suspect a lot of ebola cases are not reported, because patients are treated in total isolation and mostly die anyway, and families fear that victims are worse treated in hospitals than in their own homes.

Now that the outbreak is showing some signs of moderating in some areas, I am sure local corrupt government will try to brush it under the carpet and down play it whilst pocketing the aid.
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

A useful contribution from a doctor in the field.
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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... est-africa
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nexus
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Post by nexus »

Patient being tested for ebola is in isolation in Belfast:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... ient-tests
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Frederick Douglass
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Post by snow hope »

Patient in Belfast confirmed as NOT having Ebola. Phew! (But she is confirmed as having Malaria.)

The spread continues to be controlled thank goodness. Lets hope it stays that way.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Two more deaths in Mali - a nurse who treated the index case, and a subsequent patient of the nurse.

Lets hope they can put a lid on this one.

The numbers in Sierra Leone are still exponential. No indication that that medicine is getting it under control, or that people's behaviour has changed to reduce transmission.

The leveling off of numbers in other countries is being put down to modified behaviour and not medical control. Let's hope that Sierra Leonian people learn as quickly.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Mali now has 5 confirmed cases, and more suspected.

This does not look good.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-1 ... ebola.html

edit

This is a new outbreak, similar to the one in Nigeria. It is in the Malian
capital at a private hospital

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/healt ... .html?_r=0

Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals. Health care is overstretched at the best of times, It was recently described as the fastest growing city in Africa, having grown from 0.18M in 1960.

A new hospital is being built by the Chinese.

I hope MSF move in and bring this under control quickly.
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."

The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
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biffvernon
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Post by biffvernon »

PS_RalphW wrote: Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals.
A moment to pause for reflection on the inequality across the globe.

... And what to do about it.
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jonny2mad
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Post by jonny2mad »

biff you have a house thats unfair to all the people in the uk and worldwide without houses please sell your house and give the money to the poor :shock:

you also have shoes and most likely fine socks others dont have socks, sell your shoes and socks and give that money to the now sockless

I could go on but your rich and those sockless folks without a hospital need your help go help them ...
:shock: :shock:
"What causes more suffering in the world than the stupidity of the compassionate?"Friedrich Nietzsche

optimism is cowardice oswald spengler
snow hope
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Post by snow hope »

PS_RalphW wrote:Mali now has 5 confirmed cases, and more suspected.

This does not look good.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-1 ... ebola.html

edit

This is a new outbreak, similar to the one in Nigeria. It is in the Malian
capital at a private hospital

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/healt ... .html?_r=0

Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals. Health care is overstretched at the best of times, It was recently described as the fastest growing city in Africa, having grown from 0.18M in 1960.

A new hospital is being built by the Chinese.

I hope MSF move in and bring this under control quickly.
That second link indicates it may be out of control already. :-(
Real money is gold and silver
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